Cork's traffic congestion to worsen despite delivery of key public transport projects, analysis shows
Furthermore, even delivering key infrastructure projects like BusConnects may only ease congestion 'temporarily', as population and economic growth put greater demands on travel infrastructure in the city.
The department's strategic research and analysis division has published a new paper on the economic cost of congestion in Ireland's 'regional cities', looking particularly at Cork, Galway and Waterford.
It builds on a previous study of Dublin, which projected the economic cost in the capital could increase four-fold to more than €1.5bn by 2040.
'The results indicate that congestion will increase significantly over the coming decades across the regional cities, primarily driven by population and economic growth,' it said.
'Investment in transport infrastructure, particularly large-scale public transport projects, will likely lead to a reduction in the rate of increase in the cost of congestion.
However, increased congestion is an unavoidable consequence of continued economic and population growth.
In Cork, it estimated the cost of congestion across the metropolitan area in 2022 was €57.5m. This is forecast to rise to €97.2m by 2040. Even under a lower growth scenario, the cost is expected to hit €75m.
However, the Department of Transport's estimates assume the key infrastructure elements of the Cork Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy are delivered, such as BusConnects.
'Delays to the delivery of these projects will postpone the alleviation of congestion,' it said.
However, even delivering on these projects will not provide a great deal of relief.
The report said: 'In the Cork Metropolitan Area, population and economic growth will be likely to generate more demand for commuting trips.
'This results in the growth of congestion costs in the morning and evening peaks over the period as well as overall growth of congestion in this area. Deliveries of public transport and road infrastructure could reduce congestion temporarily, however, population and economic growth will likely generate demand that exceeds infrastructure provision.'
While in 2022, heavy traffic congestion was mainly observed in junctions near the city centre, this congestion is likely to spread over the east, west and north of the city centre in future, it said.
In the Galway Metropolitan Area, the cost of congestion was €35.3m in 2022 but this is expected to hit €106.9m in 2040. Meanwhile, in Waterford, it suggested congestion came at a cost of €5.8m in 2022 and is forecast to rise to €22.4m in 2040.
In terms of the cost of congestion per capita, the projected cost in Galway is almost triple the amount in Cork, at €891 per person by 2040 compared to €309 in Cork.
The department said a greater cost per capita suggests each resident is more affected by congestion, either through longer travel times, increasing fuel consumption or worsening wellbeing outcomes.
In Waterford, the cost per capita from congestion is set to rise a staggering 238% by 2040 compared to just 20% in Cork, which the report said is reflective of the wide-ranging investment in public transport in Cork.
'This demonstrates that large scale investments in sustainable modes can slow down the growth of congestion and that further proactive measures in improving sustainable modes and effective policies to control demand increases should be followed to keep congestion under control,' it said.
'Tackling congestion is essential to prevent the deterioration of people's wellbeing and economic productivity in regional cities.'
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