MORNING BID AMERICAS-Trump, tariffs and Tesla
Stock futures are pointing to a slightly softer open after the July 4 Independence Day holiday weekend. Confusion reigns supreme after U.S. officials flagged a delay on tariffs but have not provided any specific details on the changes, while oil prices came under pressure after OPEC opened the supply spigots more than expected.
Mike Dolan is enjoying some well-deserved time off over the next week, but the Reuters markets team is here to provide you with all the information you need to start your day.
* The United States is close to finalizing several trade pacts in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, President Donald Trump said on Sunday,
with the higher rates set to take effect on August 1.
said the U.S. will impose an additional 10% tariff on any countries aligning themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS group of developing nations,
whose leaders kicked off a summit in Brazil on Sunday.
* Global investors are heading into U.S. President Trump's Wednesday deadline for trade tariffs unexcited and
prepared for a range of benign scenarios that they believe are already priced in.
* The U.S. tax and spending bill
to the country's deficit over the next decade. If the current debt trajectory continues unabated,
writes Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement,
it could set off a slow motion debt spiral that could endanger the Federal Reserve's independence.
* Two questions stand out after the decision by OPEC to accelerate increases in crude oil output: who is going to buy the extra crude, and will the group actually export the additional barrels they say they are going to produce?
Read the latest from ROI columnist Clyde Russell.
Few things will send a shiver up the spine like an unexpected brown envelope landing in the mail. Trump says the U.S. will start delivering the first letters outlining what tariffs will apply from August 1 to a handful of countries later today. Who the recipients are, what the contents are, and what the reaction might be are a mystery at this point.
In April, Trump unveiled a tariff base rate of 10% on most countries, and additional duties ranging up to 50%, although he later delayed the effective date for all those except the 10% rate until July 9.
Trump himself hasn't offered much in the way of clarity. Early on Friday, he said the tariffs could be even higher - ranging up to 70% - with most set to go into effect on August 1.
"I signed some letters and they'll go out on Monday, probably twelve," Trump said, when asked about his plans. "Different amounts of money, different amounts of tariffs."
So far, markets aren't reacting at all. Since he took office, Trump has built a solid reputation for threatening one thing, only to back down, delay or reverse course completely. Having said that his administration would strike "90 deals in 90 days", so far there is one limited deal with Britain and an agreement in principle with Vietnam. The pause in the trade war with China expires around August 12.
While the two sides have taken steps on loosening certain restrictions on issues like shipments of semiconductor chips and critical minerals, there have been no signs yet of any major breakthrough. But Trump can still surprise. In a social media post on Sunday, he pulled a completely new policy out of the bag - that of applying an extra 10% levy on countries that "align themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of BRICS."
The original BRICS group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and, more recently, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as members.
It was not immediately clear what Trump meant by "anti-American" or whether this new threat would derail trade talks with India, Indonesia and other BRICS nations. Group heavyweight China said on Monday the threat of another 10% tariff served no one.
It seems clear that the oil price is almost certainly going to head lower over the course of the summer driving season. The OPEC group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members such as Russia and Oman, agreed to raise crude output next month by a lot more than expected.
The group is planning to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, up from the monthly increases of 411,000 bpd that were approved for May, June and July.
Lower energy costs will please Trump, who is seeking to loosen regulations around oil and gas extraction at home, urging companies to "drill, baby, drill." What might please him less is that the OPEC output increase is about taking market share, specifically from the producers in the prolific U.S. shale basin.
Finally, it seems Tesla investors are unhappy about chief executive Elon Musk's decision to dive back into politics. Having left the Department of Government Efficiency, which carried out mass dismissals of government employees, to concentrate on his businesses in May, Musk has announced the creation of the "America Party". He has repeatedly criticised Trump's landmark tax-cut and spending bill on the grounds that it would add trillions in national debt and bankrupt the country.
A day after asking his followers on X whether a new U.S. political party should be created, Musk said on Saturday that the "America Party is formed." Trump has called the plans "ridiculous". As the feud with Musk escalates, Trump has threatened to pull billions of dollars that Tesla and Musk's SpaceX company receive in government contracts and subsidies.
Tesla shares are heading for a decline today as trading gets underway after the three-day weekend. Musk's decision to get back into politics has unnerved his investors, who already had to contend with a second straight quarterly decline in deliveries in the second quarter of this year.
* Trump's letters to major trading partners are due to be delivered at midday ET
* Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Piero Cipollone in a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels
* 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auctions
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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