Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

Spectator

3 days ago

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming 'massive concessions.' It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs.
It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury's finances
The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits. Starmer also offered to protect Personal Independent Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants forever. This was to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants – a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climb to £100 billion by 2030.
It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury's finances. Early estimates suggest that the Welfare Bill climb down could cost £2 billion: money which Rachel Reeves will now have to find elsewhere. Coming so soon after the winter fuel reversal, the whole debacle will raise further questions about the political judgment of those in Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street. A U-turn looked inevitable from the moment that the initial list of 108 names on the amendment was published on Monday night. So why did Starmer persist with the plans for a further three days and completely overshadow his big Nato 5 per cent commitment?
No government has been defeated on the Second Reading of its own legislation since 1986. Tonight's climbdown means that Starmer looks to have avoided that fate next Tuesday. But the damage from such a public humiliation is obvious. Rebellion is a habit; the concessions show that it can be a fruitful one too. As for the Treasury, now forced to plug the gap in its finances, the lesson by now ought to be obvious: Labour MPs will not wear major welfare cuts unless they are handled with the upmost care.