Despite promised reset, Cardinals now find themselves stuck in the middle

New York Times

28-02-2025

The worst place to be, virtually every baseball executive will say, is in the middle. Either compete or rebuild. Just don't get caught in between.
The St. Louis Cardinals are caught in between, after promising a 'reset,' which they now call a 'transition' – anything but a dreaded 'rebuild.'
If the Cardinals could not move third baseman Nolan Arenado, who blew his initial chance to leave when he rejected a trade to the Houston Astros, they should have at least dealt closer Ryan Helsley and right-hander Erick Fedde.
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Instead, they dug in, contradicting what chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said when they announced the team's pivot in early October — and depriving the organization a chance to add prospects to the young core the club's leadership is so eager to promote.
The Cardinals essentially are bringing back the same club that finished 83-79 last season, minus first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and reliever Andrew Kittredge, who left as free agents, and right-handers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, who had club options declined.
Their 'plan,' if one can even call it that, raised the question of whether Mozeliak simply could not accept a major step back in his final season on the job before getting replaced by Chaim Bloom.
Asked directly if his reluctance to go out on a down note factored into his decision-making, Mozeliak said, 'Not really. I represent ownership. We certainly want to make sure our fan base knows we are trying. Now the level of adding vs. transitioning is definitely a little different. But we still want to be a product people come out and watch.'
Such an approach is commendable, and the Cardinals certainly have succeeded in building an appealing product. Over the past 25 years they rank third in the majors in wins, behind only the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. And for all the justifiable criticism of Mozeliak's recent work, his tenure includes 10 postseason appearances in 17 seasons, five trips to the NLCS and the 2011 World Series title.
Ok, but back to the news conference of Sept. 30, the day after the 2024 regular season ended, when the Cardinals revealed their shift in organizational philosophy.
'Our number one priority will be to lay the foundation for a sustained period of competitive excellence in the years ahead,' DeWitt Jr. said.
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'This is a reset, yes,' Mozeliak said. 'This is going to be where we're not necessarily building the best possible roster we can.'
The signal to the fan base was clear: After two straight years of failing to qualify for a six-team NL playoff field, the Cardinals were going to invest more in player development and rely more on younger major leaguers in 2025.
Both things are happening. The overhaul of the player-development system began with Bloom hiring a new assistant general manager, Rob Cerfolio from the Cleveland Guardians, and three new directors. But at the major-league level, the Cardinals should have committed to a youth movement more aggressively.
They need not have torn down completely, a strategy that has become less tempting for clubs since the inception of the draft lottery in 2023. All they needed to do was follow through on what they said. And if DeWitt had ordered Bloom to take over immediately, rather than allow Mozeliak a farewell tour, perhaps they would have done just that.
Does anyone seriously think Cardinals fans would have been upset if the team received solid returns for Helsley, who led the majors with 49 saves in 53 chances last season, or Fedde, who in 177 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox and Cardinals produced a 3.30 ERA?
True, both are entering their free-agent years. But for closer Devin Williams, another potential free agent, the Milwaukee Brewers landed a mid-rotation starting pitcher, Nestor Cortes Jr., and an infield prospect, Caleb Durbin. The Cardinals would have sought more of a prospect-based package for Helsley, who will earn $8.2 million in 2025. And they could have gotten it.
Fedde, too, should have been in demand. His $7.5 million salary looks like a downright bargain compared to some of the free-agent deals from the offseason — two years, $34 million for Frankie Montas; two years, $29 million for Matthew Boyd; one year, $15 million for Alex Cobb.
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In fairness to Mozeliak, the entire picture — from ownership's influence to the actual trade interest in Helsley and Fedde — is not known. Arenado, with his willingness to waive his no-trade clause for only five teams, left Mozeliak with little maneuverability. Mozeliak spent much of his offseason trying to tip over that domino, and it never budged. Then again, a trade of Arenado, either this spring or before the deadline, likely would be little more than a salary dump.
The desires of first baseman Willson Contreras and righty Sonny Gray to remain with the team also might have impacted Mozeliak's thinking. If either or both were willing to waive their own no-trade clauses, perhaps Mozeliak would have seen greater reason to trade Helsley and Fedde. The team, at that point, would have been much less likely to compete.
But that's not how it played out.
With the rest of the roster staying intact, trading Helsley and Fedde might not have been all that damaging, particularly if the Cardinals acquired major-league ready talent in return. The NL Central is the weakest division in the sport. As disappointing as last season was for the Cardinals, they entered the deadline only two games back in the wild-card race. And while they were only two games over .500, Mozeliak viewed a postseason berth as realistic, adding Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham.
So, what happens this year if the Cardinals are again within reasonable striking distance? Mozeliak, unwilling to deal in hypotheticals, passed on the question. But trading prospects for veterans at that point would run completely counter to what the Cardinals say they are trying to do.
If the Cardinals are out of contention, a somewhat difficult-to-imagine scenario with the expanded playoff format, they could always trade Helsley and Fedde then. But they would receive less for two months of those players than they would have for six months. The returns also would be diminished by the inability of the acquiring teams to make qualifying offers. Helsley and Fedde might not warrant QOs, but their values are greater with the possibility intact. Players traded in the middle of a season cannot receive qualifying offers.
'This club could be good, or it could struggle,' Mozeliak said. 'A lot of it just depends on how people obviously step up and play. Is Jordan Walker an impact bat? Is Nolan Gorman that middle-of-the-order type hitter? Is Brendan Donovan an All-Star outfielder? Is Willson Contreras adjusting from catcher to first base, and does the bat come alive even more? There are things that are in question. But if they come around to where we hope, it could be a fun team to watch.'
Could be, yes. The problem is, this was never supposed to be about 2025. It was supposed to be about 2026, and beyond.
(Top photo of John Mozeliak: AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)