A new MP for Runcorn? Bring on Reform, say disillusioned voters
'If somebody was mouthing off to me so much, I would have knocked him out myself,' says Jason Baldwin. 'I don't believe he should have lost his job.'
He is referring to Mike Amesbury, who won the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat for Labour with a thumping majority of almost 15,000 votes in July last year.
That, however, seems an age ago and now the talk of the town is of Amesbury's decision last week to resign, having been handed a suspended prison sentence for punching a constituent. A byelection looms.
'Prescott didn't get sacked,' remarks another Amesbury-supporting drinker, referring to the 2001 incident when then-Labour deputy prime minister John Prescott punched an egg-throwing protester.
'Sometimes you're going to snap,' agreed a member of the group.
'He was somebody that you could trust and go to to get something sorted out,' adds Baldwin.
But support for Amesbury does not translate into backing for the Labour party. Far from it. Ominously for Keir Starmer's party, polls show that Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which came a distant second in the general election here, could cause a sensation and win in this seat when the contest to find Amesbury's successor takes place. That would be a hammer blow to Labour so soon after it won a historic election landslide.
Some of the reasons why opinion is shifting quickly become clear from the pub talk. Baldwin has three children who have been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. He fears that this government's planned cuts to benefits, and particularly the tightening of eligibility rules for personal independence payments, will affect his family severely.
'I'd love to have a one on one with each politician and say: 'Come and have a look how hard it is',' he says. 'Most people in Runcorn are thinking about benefit cuts and taxes … This country is going wrong, It needs somebody that can sort this out and look after the people who need looking after. It needs change.'
As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce more cuts to spending for unprotected government departments in her spring statement on Wednesday, these are the kind of raw expressions of anger that Labour MPs are hearing from their constituents all too often.
In their weekly surgeries they confront the human stories. As a result, disquiet is rising on the Labour backbenches, with more and more MPs dismayed that their government seems to be hitting the poorest and most vulnerable hardest in their desperate attempts to balance the books and keep within their self-imposed fiscal rules.
For Labour, the signs are worrying, not only for this byelection but also for wider local elections in May. Nationally, the Tories are now favoured by more people than Labour to run the economy well and 'improve your financial situation', according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
That is a huge turnaround, given the damage Liz Truss inflicted on the Conservatives' reputation for economic management. Local government leaders are warning that, after 15 years of austerity cuts, Reeves may be about to add more misery with further reductions in council budgets, which will feed through to reduced funding for crucial areas, including social care services.
Louise Gittins, chair of the Local Government Association, tells the Observer: 'Local government has made huge savings and efficiencies over the past decade and continues to innovate and transform services to get the best for residents and provide greater value for money. However, without adequate investment, now we risk not being able to deliver crucial services that so many depend on, and our desire to help government fulfil its ambitions for the future are severely hindered.'
Runcorn and Helsby will soon be full of Labour and Reform people canvassing for votes. Amesbury had represented the marginal Weaver Vale seat since gaining it from the Tories in 2017, and won July's general election with 53% of the vote. Reform UK received 18% while the Conservatives came third on 16%. The Green party won 6% and the Liberal Democrats 5%.
In Runcorn's library on Thursday, three friends are meeting for their weekly Scrabble club. They agree things are going wrong in Britain. The debate is already under way as to who would best put things right.
Dave Colleavy, 73, believes that after years of Labour and Conservative control, Reform should be given an opportunity. 'We should give somebody else a chance,' he says. 'We had 14 years of Conservative rule, but nothing's any better, and it's not getting any better at this moment in time.'
His fellow Scrabble player Marian Holt, 70, does not know 'what Reform stands for' but Colleavy insists that the party would be a 'better option than what we have'. 'Why are we just persevering with the same thing?' he asks. 'If it doesn't go well, it doesn't go well, but it's not going well anyway.'
On the other side of the table Rich Bradshaw, 70, also wants change but backed the Green Party as his preferred alternative.
'I think Reform is a worse option,' he says, comparing Farage unfavourably with Donald Trump. 'But it's hard to argue when people say [Labour and the Conservatives] are all the same – it's all soundbites and budget cuts.'
Research on voting intention carried out by Lord Ashcroft Polls last week put Reform ahead of Labour by 42 per cent to 33 per cent among people who said they were certain to vote, and turnout will be key.
During the Observer's visit to Runcorn, all the over-50s spoken to were intending to vote, but younger people interviewed were either unaware of the byelection or said they would not take part.
In Costa, two personal trainers meeting for a coffee are surprised to be told that the local MP has stood down after punching a man. 'It's a waste of time talking about politics, and I don't like politicians,' says one of the friends, who does not want to be named.
'Labour are supposed to be the ones who help us out, and we're worse off with Labour than we were with the Tories.'
The pair want to see more support for young people in Runcorn and the surrounding area, where they say there is little opportunity and 'literally nothing to do'.
'The people who are already rich are all right, but the working man is still getting stung,' says the personal trainer. 'I'm from a Labour through-and-through family, but now Labour are in and there's no benefit.'
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