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German business sentiment rises: Ifo sees sixth consecutive lift
Germany's closely-watched IFO index, which measures business optimism in the country, rose in June despite wider geopolitical uncertainty. Firms rated the business climate at 88.4, the sixth consecutive monthly rise, and a notch up from the 87.5 reading seen in May. Business expectations came in at 90.7, up from 89.0 recorded in the previous month, and also marking the highest level seen since early 2023. The optimism comes despite geopolitical risks that threaten the German economy. A 90-day pause to so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed by the US will come to an end on 9 July, creating significant uncertainty for Europe. The EU could see a baseline tariff of 10% jump to 50% if a deal is not reached before then. Related Highest-paying jobs in Germany: Official data and job postings reveal top salaries German economic morale soars in June: 'Confidence is picking up' Added to this, President Donald Trump has already reintroduced a 50% duty on EU steel and aluminium entering the US, as well as placing a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts. In 2024, Germany posted a record trade surplus with the US of €69.95 billion. This year, the rising value of the euro may slightly hamper exports as it behaves like an extra tariff, making German goods more expensive for some overseas consumers. Despite these headwinds, there are factors contributing to the positive business climate in Germany, notably the government's pledge to increase spending. Berlin has recently approved a constitutional amendment to its 'debt brake' rule, meaning defence spending above 1% of GDP will not be subject to borrowing limits. Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to boost military spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2029. The government has also created a €500 billion extrabudgetary fund for additional infrastructure spending, set to give businesses an added boost. Germany's economy grew by a greater-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, partly linked to US tariff frontloading. Declining interest rates are also easing borrowing costs for German businesses. At the start of June, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2%, its lowest level in more than two years. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold its benchmark interest rate steady during its next policy meeting on 23-24 July. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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ASML (ASML) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know
ASML (ASML) closed the most recent trading day at $794.10, moving +1.15% from the previous trading session. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.07% loss on the day. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.37%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.03%. Heading into today, shares of the equipment supplier to semiconductor makers had gained 1.93% over the past month, lagging the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 5.58% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.94%. Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of ASML in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to go public on July 16, 2025. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $5.94, reflecting a 37.5% increase from the same quarter last year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $8.55 billion, showing a 27.19% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter. In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $27.48 per share and a revenue of $37.33 billion, indicating changes of +31.99% and +22.17%, respectively, from the former year. Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for ASML. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook. Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model. The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 1.17% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. ASML is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Investors should also note ASML's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 28.58. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 27.54, so one might conclude that ASML is trading at a premium comparatively. We can additionally observe that ASML currently boasts a PEG ratio of 1.64. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. The Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.32 as trading concluded yesterday. The Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 11, placing it within the top 5% of over 250 industries. The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. Make sure to utilize to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Can the Oil Market Absorb OPEC+ Output Hikes?
OPEC+ never fails to surprise speculators and market analysts. This weekend's meeting to decide August production levels was expected to be a short routine video call to announce another output hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). Short it was, but the size of the increase for August was bigger than expected— 548,000 bpd. The eight OPEC+ members that are unwinding the cuts are expected to make another supersized increase in September, with which the 2.2 million bpd cuts will all be back on the market, at least the headline figures suggest so. However, no one is really sure by how much OPEC+ is actually raising oil production these days because some producers are pumping less than quotas to compensate for previous overproduction. Analysts concur that the supersized hikes are not that continues to rely on strong summer oil demand to absorb the additional barrels. The physical market appears to be tight in the near term, although the coming glut in the autumn and beyond is likely to push oil prices further down. Oil didn't collapse following this weekend's OPEC+ decision—a sign that there isn't immediate fear of oversupply and that the market hasn't shaken off entirely geopolitics-driven volatility. Immediately after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) for its crude destined for Asia and Europe in August, betting on robust summer demand to soak up the additional oil prices in the $60s per barrel are likely to encourage buying in Asia, as China continues to stockpile crude with high purchases at lower oil prices. May and June arrivals are set to be strong as cargoes contracted a month or two earlier were at prices near four-year lows. But much of the July, and especially August, supply was likely contracted in June, when oil spiked to four-month highs amid the Israel-Iran war. This suggests that Asian buyers, including top Asian crude importers China and India, likely bought lower volumes when prices were high. Since the ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of June, prices have largely returned to pre-conflict levels, allowing again price-sensitive opportunistic buyers to seek more supply. The current oil price, with Brent Crude in the high $60s per barrel, is the 'right place' for crude prices, AS Sahney, chairman of state-owned Indian Oil Corporation, the biggest refiner in India, said earlier this week. 'There is still some room for it to go downwards. What I see is very much near to $65, plus or minus one or two dollars, is the right place where we will be comfortable,' Sahney told the NDTV Profit outlet on Monday. If the strong Asian imports in May were largely due to low oil prices, then overall Asian demand later this summer may disappoint, as volumes contracted in June will be much lower due to the war premium in prices for most of last month. Hence, demand may not be as strong as it appears to be, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell market is still tight in the near term, with the tightness reflected in the strength in the prompt Brent timespread, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday. 'The expected supply surplus won't materialise until later this year, when we expect more sustained downward price pressure,' they added. The middle distillate market is also tightening, more so than the crude market. Gasoil refining margins are rising, while speculators hold the largest net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in gasoil for a year, according to ING. In the United States, middle distillate inventories sit at their lowest level in more than two decades for this time of the year, the bank's strategists noted. Saudi Aramco's crude price hikes to all regions for August-loading cargoes also signal that physical markets remain tight, 'suggesting the additional barrels can be absorbed—for now,' Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Monday note. 'In the short term, downside risks to crude appear contained,' Hansen said. 'Compensation cuts from previous overproduction are helping offset new supply, while geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to discourage aggressive short positioning by speculators.' Recent consensus-beating economic data from the United States support a steady demand outlook, but continued trade tensions and tariff announcements somewhat dampen the bullish sentiment. In addition, 'seasonal demand softening into autumn could emerge as headwinds in the months ahead,' Hansen noted. Despite signs of current physical market tightness, analysts do not expect prices to top $70 per barrel for a sustained period of time, barring another major escalation in the Middle East. Growing supply from the OPEC+ group, although not as high as the monthly headline figures suggest, is set to create an oversupply on the market going into autumn, even if summer demand holds strong. On the demand side, peak summer travel season may justify higher supply, but lingering trade and economic uncertainties may cap upside to prices. By Tsvetana Paraskova for More Top Reads From this article on
