America's ominous new halt on weapons to Ukraine

Mint

7 hours ago

In recent weeks Ukraine has endured some of the most intense drone and missile bombardments since the start of Russia's full-on invasion three years ago. There could scarcely be a worse time for America to halt the delivery of precious air-defence equipment. Yet Ukrainian officials say that on the night of June 30th-July 1st the Pentagon turned back cargo planes delivering supplies of air-defence interceptors and other arms to European bases, from where they would be taken overland to Ukraine.
Precisely which weapons have been halted, for how long and why remains murky. The Pentagon gave no details. But several reports said they included Patriot air-defence interceptors. The Wall Street Journal added that they included Stinger surface-to-air missiles, air-to-air missiles, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, surface-to-surface rockets and artillery rounds.
The Pentagon said the pause was intended to enable a general review of weapons deliveries to promote an end to the war in Ukraine 'while also preserving US military readiness and defense priorities.' Sean Parnell, the Pentagon spokesman, added: 'We can't give weapons to everybody all around the world. We have to look out for America and defending our homeland and our troops around the world.' Officials said the review was global, and any pause could ultimately be reversed. Ukrainian officials say that, in fact, all shipments of American weapons, including shells and spare parts, have been halted, a contention that American officials deny.
The Pentagon presents the interruption as a limited and temporary action. But Ukrainian officials suspect a more concerted effort by the Trump administration to squeeze political concessions out of Ukraine, as it did in early March when it briefly stopped arms deliveries and intelligence co-operation after an infamous televised bust-up between Donald Trump and Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
More recently, though, relations between Messrs Trump and Zelensky appeared to improve as Ukraine accepted American calls for an immediate ceasefire and Russia dragged out the process in the hope of making more gains on the ground. At the NATO summit in The Hague last week, Mr Trump seemed willing to find more Patriot interceptors for Ukraine, though he acknowledged supplies were tight.
Whatever the precise situation, it seems clear that American support for Ukraine is ebbing. Mr Trump has not made any new commitments of weapons to help it since his return to office in January (tens of billions of dollars authorised by Congress last year remain uncommitted). Nor has the Republican-dominated Congress allocated new funds. There is no money for Ukraine in the 'big beautiful bill' making its way through Congress. Officials said the already small amounts for Ukraine in the regular Pentagon budget would be cut further under the budget request for fiscal year 2026, though they gave no details. The administration is allowing the supplemental funds approved by Congress last year, and the pipeline of arms pumped up at the end of Joe Biden's term, to drain away without replenishment.
American support has come mainly in two forms: Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) under which the Pentagon has rushed weapons to Ukraine from its own stocks; and Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), a slower process whereby America has ordered weapons for Ukraine from manufacturers. The Trump administration has made no PDA announcements since coming to office in January, but weapons ordered under USAI had been expected to keep flowing until late 2028, according to calculations by Mark Cancian and Chris Park of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (see chart). If these supplies are now being interrupted, that would mark an even more abrupt end to American support than feared.
The Pentagon has long fretted about the impact of the Ukraine war on its supply of weapons. Reports say Pentagon officials have been circulating memos since early this year expressing concern about low stocks. The decision to halt the shipments is believed to be driven by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's under-secretary for policy, who has long advocated shifting America's military resources from Europe and the Middle East to concentrate on Asia and the rivalry with China. According to reports, he has overseen a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, amid worries that artillery shells, air-defence weapons and precision munitions had fallen dangerously low.
Mr Trump promised to end the Ukraine war on his first day in office. Nearly six months on he seems no closer to securing even a ceasefire despite friendly calls with Vladimir Putin, Russia's president. Though Russia is the aggressor, and the recalcitrant party, Ukraine is the easier side for America to coerce given its heavy reliance on Western support. Ukraine has built up its arms industry, not least in drones. European countries already provide more weapons to Ukraine than America does and, as they raise defence spending, have promised to help make up the shortfall as America withdraws support. But they, too, are woefully short of air-defence weapons and the Patriot system has proven itself particularly effective against ballistic and other missiles.
Ukraine's front lines seem unlikely to collapse in the coming months, though Russia is making incremental gains. Nevertheless, Ukraine faces a grim reckoning: the fewer weapons it receives, the more people and territory it will lose.