Ukraine Doesn't Need a Recovery. It Needs a Rescue

Bloomberg

10-07-2025

There's something unreal about the Ukraine recovery conference that got underway in Rome Thursday morning. As Russia fired more than 730 long-range drones and missiles at targets across its neighbor on Tuesday, a record, and a further 400-plus overnight, it's a rescue conference that Kyiv needs right now. Without security, there won't be a recovery to fund.
This is the fourth such jamboree of well-intentioned international leaders and donors. But it takes place at a moment when the international support that enabled the country to fight off Russia's invasion has faltered and prospects for peace have receded. Only German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged the elephant in the room: Donald Trump. 'Stay with us,' he exhorted the US president.
With reduced US resources to bolster Ukraine's defenses, how much will have to be rebuilt is changing by the day. How much will remain in Ukrainian hands for reconstruction is just as uncertain. Russian forces continue to make territorial gains, while President Vladimir Putin has made clear his appetite runs even further than the four partly conquered provinces of Ukraine that he already declared part of Russia back in 2022.
You could hear the desperation Wednesday night in the voices of Ukrainians assembled to press their case at a pre-conference dinner arranged by the Pinchuk Foundation, named after the billionaire Ukrainian businessman who funds it, but most of all in comments from Trump's special envoy for Ukraine. Keith Kellogg, a retired US Army lieutenant general, choked with emotion as he did his best to deliver the administration's message. We're closer than you think to World War III; the killing has to stop, he said. But then, he went on, 'you can't quit.'
'We have an obligation in the West to make sure this has not been in vain,' Kellogg said. 'Do you want to be on the right side of history or not. Do you want to be on the moral side of history, or not.'
What Kellogg said was clearly heartfelt, but to whom was he speaking? The Ukrainians are already doing all the fighting and are very clear about which side of history they're on. The Europeans are trying, but their conduct of a foreign policy is like herding cats. They're also probably a decade behind having the defense-production capabilities that would be needed to fill the void the US has created, as even previously authorized aid flows are turned on and off. Or could it be that Kellogg was addressing Trump, as his absent boss wrestles with the realization that he has been played by Putin?
There is a vital role for donor conferences, including post-war recovery plans, because Russia's invasion of Ukraine won't end in any definitive way unless the country is overrun. Putin would otherwise continue trying to turn what remains of independent Ukraine into a failed state. That makes it critical to show the commitment and resources are there to make those efforts fail. Even so, the leaders' summit that's really needed right now would thrash out a joint allied strategy to persuade Putin he has nothing to gain by continuing the war.
Ukraine first of all needs more air defense, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in Rome on Thursday. Trump just seemingly reversed his administration's decision to halt a shipment of 30 patriot missiles, but he can and should start authorizing new interceptor deliveries of his own, rather than just interfering with those authorized by his predecessor.
Europe, meanwhile, just clapped itself on the back for committing to spend 5% of gross domestic product on defense by 2035. Most countries, with a few honorable Nordic exceptions, have spent well under 1% on helping Ukraine since Putin's full invasion started in February 2022. For Germany and Thursday's host, Italy, that figure is 0.4% of GDP, according to a detailed tracker run by Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy. For the US, it's 0.56% of GDP. So the money is there.
After air defenses, it's mostly money that's needed. The Ukrainian defense industry has the capacity this year to produce $35 billion worth of arms, from drones and artillery shells, to mobile howitzers and ballistic missiles, but a budget for only $12 billion, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Zelenskiy's strategic affairs adviser, told me.
How to find the funds and additional air defense systems to weather Putin's missile barrages should be the primary goal of every international meeting aimed at helping Ukraine until it's achieved. 'As long as it takes,' that favorite phrase of European leaders to demonstrate their commitment to Ukraine, must become 'as fast as possible.' Passing the enhanced Russia sanctions package that's been waiting in Congress for Trump's green light would be a great place to start, but there's no hiding that Europe will need to pick up moreof the burden.
'I understand that democracies take time,' Khrystyna 'Kudrava' a national guard officer dealing with drones and electronic warfare, told the guests at the elegant Hassler Hotel atop the Spanish Steps Wednesday night. 'But Ukrainians can't hold the line forever. It is your time now, Europeans.' She was right, except that it's Trump's time, too.
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