Liberated But Not Yet Free
It looks as though the markets have finally achieved liberation from April 2's Liberation Day. Measures of risk appetite (the Bloomberg Financial Conditions index) and perceived risk in the credit market (proxied by the option-adjusted spread on Bloomberg's US high-yield index) are both almost back where they were before President Donald Trump began his presentation in the rose garden:
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Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Wall St slips with Asia stocks as US trade policy confounds
By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Losses in Wall Street futures dragged Asian stocks lower on Monday as the latest round of threats in the U.S. tariff wars kept investors on edge, though the fallout was limited by hopes this was mainly bluster by President Donald Trump. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The European Union said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. Investors have become largely inured to Trump's chaotic policy methods and stocks eased only modestly, while the dollar gained just a fraction on the euro. "It is hard to say whether the muted market response is best characterised by resilience or complacency," said Taylor Nugent, a senior markets economist at NAB. "But it is difficult to price the array of headlines purportedly defining where tariffs will sit from August when negotiations are ongoing." For now, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were little changed, while Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4%. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday. S&P companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8% from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES. Analysts at BofA noted the bar was low for earnings with consensus seeing a slowdown to 4% growth, from the previous quarter's 13%. "We expect a modest beat of 2%, below the 3% average and last quarter's 6% figure, though medium-term, we are more constructive," they wrote in a note. PRESSURING POWELL In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41%. Futures for the Federal Reserve funds rate edged higher as markets priced in a little more policy easing for next year. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled a patient outlook on cuts, Trump is piling up political pressure for more aggressive stimulus. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over the weekend warned Trump might have grounds to fire Powell because of renovation cost overruns at the Fed's Washington headquarters. Trump said on Sunday that it would be a great thing if Powell stepped down. Figures on U.S. consumer prices for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins. The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring. There is also a raft of data out from China starting with June trade on Monday, followed by retail sales, industrial output and gross domestic product the day after. Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.2% on the tariff news to $1.1665, edging away from its recent four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar added 0.1% on the yen to 147.53 and a similar amount on its currency index to 98.008. The dollar also gained 0.3% on the Mexican peso to 18.6900, with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confident a trade deal could be reached before the August deadline. In commodity markets, gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.3% to $3,366 an ounce. [GOL/] Oil prices edged higher on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. [O/R] Brent edged up 0.1% to $70.45 a barrel, while U.S. crude firmed slightly to $0.68.50 per barrel. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
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Gold Gains as Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs Before Deadline
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CNBC
44 minutes ago
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Singapore's economy grows 4.3% in second quarter, beating expectations
Singapore's economy grew at 4.3% year over year in the second quarter of the year, accelerating from 3.9% in the first quarter and beating expectations. The advance figure was higher than the 3.5% forecasted by Reuters. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's GDP grew by 1.4%, a turnaround from the 0.5% contraction last GDP growth was led by the manufacturing sector, which expanded 5.5% year over year, up from 4.4% in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the GDP beat, Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry said in its release that "Looking forward, there remains significant uncertainty and downside risks in the global economy in the second half of 2025 given the lack of clarity over the tariff policies of the U.S." Unlike other ASEAN nations that have been hit with "tariff letters," Singapore has not received such a "letter" from U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the country still faces the baseline 10% tariff from the U.S., even as the country runs a trade deficit with the U.S. and has a free trade agreement since 2004. The GDP release also comes ahead of a monetary policy decision by the country's central bank later in July. In its May meeting, the Monetary Authority of Singapore loosened its monetary policy for a second straight time, saying that "there are downside risks to Singapore's economic outlook stemming from episodes of financial market volatility and a sharper-than-expected fall in final demand abroad." The MAS also warned that a more abrupt or persistent weakening in global trade will have a significant impact on Singapore's trade-related sectors and, in turn, the broader economy. Nonetheless, the country's inflation numbers are supportive of a rate cut. Singapore's headline inflation rate fell to 0.8% in May, its lowest level since February 2021, while core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, came in at 0.6% in May, compared to 0.7% the month before.
