Why the Gulf must evolve or risk becoming obsolete
Saudi Arabia's Seha Virtual Hospital is more than just a breakthrough in medical innovation. As patients receive artificial intelligence-powered diagnoses from home — leapfrogging half a century of infrastructure development in a single technological stride — we are witnessing more than just a healthcare revolution. This is a nation actively shaping its post-petroleum future.
This leapfrogging strategy mirrors the breakthroughs unfolding in a cutting-edge Parisian lab, where GenBio scientists are not just discovering new drugs — they are rendering the pharmaceutical industry's plodding timeline obsolete. Their AI organism, AIDO, simulates millions of molecular interactions, transforming decades of research into mere days.
GenBio's genius, however, lies in its geographic arbitrage: European scientific rigor, Silicon Valley's capital engine, and Abu Dhabi's ambition form an innovation triangle that the Gulf states would be foolish to ignore.
The Gulf is at a crossroads familiar to anyone who has ever faced obsolescence. The vast oil wealth — the economic miracle that transformed desert kingdoms into global financial powers — now carries an expiration date. The carbon economy is terminal, even if the patient can still sit up in bed. Its leaders understand this with a clarity that eludes many in the West: adapt or die.
The UAE has launched Falcon 2, its home-grown generative AI model. Not content with importing foreign technology, Abu Dhabi is building its own. Why? Because buying innovation keeps you permanently second-rate. It is the difference between owning the means of production and merely consuming what others create.
History judges harshly those who miss technological inflection points. The Ottoman Empire, once the world's superpower, failed to embrace the printing press for political and religious reasons. Within centuries, it was dismembered by European countries that used the technology to accelerate learning and innovation.
Today's printing press is AI, and those who master it will write tomorrow's rules.
The Gulf's advantages are substantial: centralized decision-making that cuts through bureaucratic dithering, sovereign wealth that can fund ambitious projects, and, most crucially, freedom from legacy systems.
When Kenya introduced M-Pesa mobile payments, it vaulted past the Western banking model because it had no established infrastructure to protect. Similarly, the Gulf can implement AI-native systems without fighting entrenched interests.
But ambition alone is insufficient. A 2024 Boston Consulting Group study found the Gulf's digital maturity below global averages despite showcase projects and splashy conferences. The region suffers from a crippling talent shortage, fragmented data infrastructure, and an innovation ecosystem that remains more aspirational than actual. Too many initiatives remain gleaming facades without functioning interiors.
What would real transformation look like?
First, a talent revolution. Like GenBio, which draws researchers from several continents, the Gulf needs diverse intellectual capital. China's AI surge came when thousands of engineers educated at Stanford and MIT returned home. The Gulf needs to create similar knowledge pipelines — not just importing foreign experts but developing sovereign technical capability. Without this, every vision statement is merely an expensive wish list.
The Gulf must leverage its 'no legacy' advantage. New hospitals, government services, and urban developments should be AI-native, not retrofitted.
Adrian Monck
Second, the Gulf must leverage its 'no legacy' advantage. New hospitals, government services, and urban developments should be AI-native, not retrofitted. When Estonia gained independence in 1991, it rejected Finland's free analogue telephone system, opting instead for a digital-first future. Such bold choices separate visionaries from managers.
Third, rather than diffusing efforts across every AI domain, the Gulf should target strategic niches where its unique position offers advantages. Saudi Arabia could dominate in AI for energy optimization and climate adaptation — areas where its experience and challenges provide unparalleled datasets.
The UAE might focus on supply chain optimization and Arabic language AI, addressing market gaps ignored by Western developers.
The fundamental question is whether Gulf leadership possesses the intellectual courage to build truly new systems rather than shiny versions of Western ones. GenBio succeeded because it did not replicate existing pharmaceutical models — it reimagined them entirely.
The Gulf must do the same with its economies and institutions.
Singapore's Smart Nation initiative works because it integrates technologies into an overarching vision rather than treating them as separate showpieces. Every sensor, algorithm, and database serves a coordinated purpose. This systemic thinking remains rare in the Gulf, where too many projects exist in isolation.
When Kenya revolutionized mobile banking, it was not because the government announced grand plans — it was because regulators allowed an ecosystem to emerge, stepping back as telecom companies, banks, and startups collaborated to solve real problems. The Gulf's top-down approach to innovation often substitutes announcement for achievement.
Time is not the Gulf's ally. The window for technological leapfrogging closes rapidly as AI infrastructure solidifies globally. Two futures await: one where Saudi Arabia and the UAE become dynamic centers of innovation, exporting solutions rather than just importing them; another where they remain wealthy consumers of technology developed elsewhere, perpetually one step behind.
The latter is not merely suboptimal — it is fatal in a post-oil world. The achievements in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi today are no mere modernization projects; they are early indicators of whether these nations can reinvent themselves. The question is not whether they can transform — it is whether they are bold enough to create rather than copy, to lead rather than follow.
The answer may determine whether the Gulf's moment in history extends beyond the age of oil.
• Adrian Monck is a senior adviser at the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and authors the geopolitics newsletter, Seven Things.
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