The fantasy football wide receivers to draft … and those to avoid

New York Times

13 hours ago

Similar to our previous installment in the 'Draft Chasms of Doom' series focused on running backs, we see some steep declines in player value right at the top of the curve when we look at wide receivers. This is particularly true at the very top. So much so that the tiers in the graph below, which are based on some of the biggest drops in my Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) projections, somewhat misrepresent my evaluations of the very best WRs.
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I believe there are only two truly elites at the position: Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. The projections will always skew conservative, but those two have a higher and more attainable ceiling.
That said, in this series we're mainly focused on avoiding big drops to a low floor. Here's what we mean.
We're examining some of the biggest dips within my 2025 positional projections, the aforementioned 'Draft Chasms of Doom,' to show why smart drafting isn't simply selecting the next-highest-ranked player at a position of need. While rankings do illustrate player value, they don't necessarily showcase the difference in value, which can sometimes be vast. The graphs below depict those fall-offs (cliffs, Chasms of Doom, take your pick) and understanding them is essential to drafting deftly.
If this is the year of the 'Hero RB' strategy, elite wide receivers may be available later in the first round than usual, which may allow managers to capitalize on the top receivers, particularly if those receivers are Chase or Jefferson, two receivers that project ahead of all but the very best running backs. There's also another very important takeaway for fantasy managers at this position as we move later in the draft.
The drop from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Drake London (7.6 points) is among the bigger ones in the projections, but again, I truly believe there's a notable difference between Chase and Jefferson and the rest of the field. Personally, my next tier would break before Tyreek Hill because while the next 6 to 7 wide receivers after Jefferson have WR1 upside, risks and team situations create a tougher path.
If I come out of my first three rounds with a Top 10 RB and two wideouts from the top two tiers shown here, I'd be giddy. If I have to dip into Tier 3 due to how the draft plays out, I will likely double down and get another high-end Tier 3 WR. Once the Tier 3 group is off the board — here or in my ranks — I'd probably head back to running backs, maybe even a quarterback or tight end, as the projections become super flat in Tier 4.
The difference between WR23 and WR40 was 30 points last year, and we have seen a similar slow decline annually.
Obviously, the charts end before the lottery tickets and high-upside fliers come into play, and I'll have my share of those. However, it's interesting to see how we can get overly attached to some of these WR4s (and WR5s) who have very small gaps among them. That same 30-point gap mentioned above also occurred between WR44 and WR64 last year, and is depicted similarly in the projections for 2025.
I'm not pointing this out to say 'forget drafting any receivers after Tier 3,' but rather to express that this is the point in the draft that taking high-end bench RBs may be a good option.
And if you are drafting a WR, don't fret if your favorite sleeper — Ricky Pearsall — goes before your pick. Instead of reaching two rounds over cost for your guy, aim for another player in a similar situation, or with a quick path to a starting job if something broke right. (Or, well, broke wrong for the wideout in front of them.)
(Photo of Amon-Ra St. Brown: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)