Farmers' tariff patience wears thin
With help from Samuel Benson and Marcia Brown
QUICK FIX
— How long will farmers' 'wait and see' attitude toward President Donald Trump's tariffs last?
— The rollout of Republicans' reconciliation megabill will hit small, independent grocers hard.
— A co-director of one recently-axed Regional Food Business Center talks about what the program's end will mean for rural communities.
IT'S MONDAY, JULY 21. Welcome to Morning Agriculture. I'm your host Grace Yarrow, hoping you all celebrated National Ice Cream Day appropriately. Send tips to gyarrow@politico.com or on Signal at gracemy.31 and follow us at @Morning_Ag for more.
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Driving the day
HOW LONG WILL 'WAIT AND SEE' LAST? Farmers' patience with President Donald Trump could be waning as they scramble to understand and brace for a looming trade war ahead of harvest season for many major U.S. commodities.
Trump has sent out dozens of letters to trading partners — and key ag importers like the European Union, Japan and South Korea — warning them of the tariff rate they will face in coming weeks. Time is running out for the administration to prove that those threats will pay off before hurting already-struggling farmers.
Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said that farmers have had a 'wait and see' attitude towards the tariffs, trusting the Trump administration's work to get new trade deals done to open new markets. But, he added, farmers are 'anxious' in light of the president's slew of new tariff threats.
Trump's farm state allies on Capitol Hill have stood by his ultimate goal of securing new markets for farmers, but it's not clear how long their patience will last.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told MA that farmers need to 'grab a hoe and hold on.'
'Our farmers are in trouble,' he told MA last week. 'They're in bad trouble. I don't know whether there's anything we can do to save them, unless these tariffs work, and I hope we can. We're going to do everything we possibly can.'
Related reading: 'Trump's determination to barrel ahead with tariffs is forcing a growing number of Republican lawmakers to make an uncomfortable choice: defend the president's agenda or influential industries back home.' More on that from our Ari Hawkins and Daniel Desrochers here.
Is time really running out? One ag advocate, granted anonymity to discuss concerns about the administration's tariff approach, said that Trump has about a month and a half to prove his trade plans are working before farmers start harvesting and selling their products.
'We're getting closer to harvest time,' the person said. 'We're getting to the point where those sales numbers are really going to matter, the prices are really going to matter. And we're coming into the fall with some limited trade deals.'
Producers of top U.S. ag exports like corn and soybeans are gearing up to harvest and sell their products starting around August and September — and will be hit hard by any reciprocal tariffs or uncertainty caused by the state of Trump's trade negotiations.
Another complication: The person added that agriculture lobbyists are struggling to ask the administration for carve-outs or support, as Trump himself is seemingly making calls on tariff plans without involving his Cabinet.
'Ultimately it's a good thing that other countries don't know what he's going to do. It's all subject to negotiations,' the person said. 'But the real challenge is that the only person whose word really matters here is Trump. … It doesn't matter what [Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins] says.'
In the States
LATEST IN MEGABILL FALLOUT: The deep cuts Republicans made to federal nutrition programs this summer are poised to devastate independent grocery stores that are central to many low-income communities, including those that voted for President Donald Trump.
Food aid recipients often make up the majority of small grocers' customer base in remote areas and food deserts — places that have limited options for fresh, healthy food.
But a central part of paying for the GOP policy megabill Trump signed on July 4 relied on slashing the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the nation's largest anti-hunger initiative.
Even though some provisions in the new law won't go into effect for another three years, others, like expanded work requirements for SNAP participants, could kick some families out of the program and hit the bottom lines of small grocery stores within months.
It's a chain reaction set off in Washington that's likely to reshape how people access food in more isolated communities even if they don't use federal assistance.
'I lean pretty heavily right most of the time, but one of the things that I do lean to the left on is we're a pretty wealthy country, we can help people out,' said St. Johns, Arizona, Mayor Spence Udall, whose town overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2024.
Don't miss the full story from MA's own Rachel Shin here.
AROUND THE AGENCIES
GOODBYE RURAL FOOD CENTERS: USDA's move last week to abruptly cancel remaining funding for a dozen centers serving farms and other rural companies will have a 'devastating' effect on food and farm businesses, according to the co-director of one of the targeted centers.
Katie Nixon said Heartland Regional Food Business Center will trim its work significantly over the next 60 days and then close its doors entirely in August 2026.
You all had this meeting [last Wednesday] where you learned about this decision to end the program. What was that like and what reasoning were you given?
The reasoning given on the call was that the way it was organized was not in line with congressional approval or something like that.
And then the press release came out, and it was like the just most ridiculous argument, saying that this was temporary funding anyways, so we're going to cancel it, because it's unfair to farmers to put temporary funding on the ground and then take it away, which makes no sense.
Is there anything else you want people to know about the work that the centers did and why it mattered?
We are in a country right now where those small businesses are not succeeding and they're not thriving, especially in food and farming.
Our farming businesses are dropping left and right, and the consolidation of agriculture has become to the point where I don't even recognize what a farm is anymore to some degree.
What the Regional Food Business Centers do is ground the work in the community and allow the professionals who help those businesses and who care about those businesses help them thrive.
Read the full Q&A from our Marcia Brown here.
Transitions
Venus Welch-White, who served as acting head of EPA's Office of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, has joined CropLife America as director of government relations.
Emma Simon is now digital director for the House Ag Committee Democratic staff. She most recently was a content producer for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and is a Jamaal Bowman and More Perfect Union alum.
Row Crops
— First in MA: The Center for the Environment and Welfare, an industry group that counsels companies and consumers on animal welfare and other policy issues, is placing an anti-Prop. 12 ad in print version of The Hill coinciding with the House Ag Committee's Wednesday hearing on how to reverse the California animal welfare law in the upcoming farm bill package.
— Kellogg, the maker of Froot Loops and Apple Jacks, will cut synthetic dyes from its cereals by the end of 2027.
— The Senate Agriculture Committee will vote today on advancing Brian Quintenz's nomination to become CFTC chair and other USDA nominations, our Declan Harty reports.
— More cities and states are experimenting with the concept of publicly-supported grocery stores in low-income neighborhoods. But those stores are still struggling. (The Washington Post)
THAT'S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line and send us your agriculture job announcements or events: gyarrow@politico.com, marciabrown@politico.com, jwolman@politico.com, sbenson@politico.com, rdugyala@politico.com and gmott@politico.com.
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WASHINGTON, D.C. — On Thursday morning in the nation's capital, NCAA president Charlie Baker spoke to a few dozen members and guests of the National Press Club — an operation located in Washington's downtown, just a short walk to the White House. Just hours later, the association's years-long fight for federal intervention in college sports received, perhaps, a boost from the man living just a few blocks away. President Donald Trump released his long-awaited executive order related to college athletics, announcing in a five-page order titled 'SAVING COLLEGE SPORTS' that he is directing members of his cabinet to create policy around several aspects of the industry that protect the NCAA and conferences from enforcing and creating rules to govern it. But what exactly does Trump's executive order mean? What will it change, if anything, about college sports' athlete compensation and transfer environment? The short answer, at least for now, is not very much. 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He goes on to write critically that some schools are paying their athletes as much as $50 million this year from a combination of House settlement-related revenue share and third-party NIL. 'A national solution is urgently needed to prevent this situation from deteriorating beyond repair and to protect non-revenue sports, including many women's sports,' he writes. How he plans to do this is to direct various members of his cabinet — the attorney general, secretary of labor, secretary of education, etc. — to create policy around several concepts that the NCAA and conferences have been requesting help on from Congress for years. Among those: Protecting scholarships for non-revenue sports: The executive order, most notably, requires schools to maintain or even increase the number of scholarships they provide to non-revenue sports. This is geared to protect Olympic and women's sports that are at risk of elimination as schools direct more funding away from those and to the sports that generate the revenue like football and men's basketball. Those with $125 million or budgets (most of the power league schools) must provide more scholarship opportunities than they did last year, for instance. Those with budgets of $50 million must provide at least the same, as seen in a screen shot of the section here. Prohibit third-party, 'pay-for-play': You might call this the prohibition of booster collective pay to athletes, which, in a way, codifies the House settlement terms that prohibit collective pay to athletes if they are not deemed to be for legitimate endorsement or commercial opportunities. This issue is at the heart of negotiations among attorneys that is expected to result in a resolution soon that permits collectives to operate in a more open capacity than first thought. The executive order reinforces that provision in the House settlement. How does Trump plan to enforce these parameters? Well, that remains a bit murky, but he suggests in the order that members of his cabinet, as well as the Federal Trade Commission, have 30 days to create a plan on the enforcement of such, including potentially withholding federal funding for violators, opening up Title IX investigations, etc. Athlete employment: Trump directs the Secretary of Labor and the National Labor Relations Board to 'clarify the status of college athletes' — an obvious gesture toward the ongoing debate over courts potentially deeming college athletes as employees. As stated in the order preamble, Trump is against college athletes becoming employees and is clearly, with this directive, ordering cabinet members and the NLRB — he appoints the board — to rule that college athletes are students. Ironically enough, while many college leaders fight against employment, some of them believe collective bargaining is the only solution for the industry. Limited liability protection: This is another issue the NCAA and conferences have spent millions of dollars and six years lobbying for. They want to be protected from legal challenges so they can enforce their rules over things such as transfers, roster limits, booster pay — many of which have been deemed illegal by courts. Trump clearly disagrees with these court rulings, as he notes in the preamble. The order directs the attorney general and the chairman of the Federal Trade Commission to create policies to protect the 'long-term availability of college athletic scholarship and opportunities' when such is 'unreasonably challenged under antitrust' law. The attorney general and the FTC have 60 days to create such a plan, the order says. What are the immediate impacts of the executive order? The answer here is potentially … nothing. Trump's cabinet members — many of whom are quite busy with other more pressing matters — will need to make policy around these subjects. The specifics of that policy will dictate exactly how pivotal, if at all, this order is. What is a certainty is that whatever policies are created are not law and will likely be subject to legal scrutiny. Congressional action and court rulings are law in this country — not executive orders, legal experts tell Yahoo Sports. Baker even suggested this during his talk Thursday morning. 'You can't fix this stuff from executive order,' he said. 'Our focus for now really needs to be trying to get stuff dealt with through the legislative process.' As it turns out, Wednesday was a historic day for college sports with regard to congressional legislation. An all-encompassing federal college sports bill made its way out of committee for the first time since the NCAA's lobbying efforts began nearly six years ago. The SCORE Act, bipartisan but pro-Republican and NCAA-friendly legislation that many Democrats are against, received the necessary votes to advance out of committees and is eligible for debate on the House floor when members return in September from their traditional summer break. In many ways, the Score Act grants the NCAA and conferences similar protections as Trump's order. Above anything, Trump's executive order may get Congress to more urgently and swiftly push the bill across the goal line. However, if it does advance out of the House, the SCORE Act faces stiff pushback in a divided U.S. Senate, where at least seven Democrats are needed to overcome the filibuster and reach the 60-vote margin for any bill passage. The Senate, though, has been working toward the introduction of its own legislation, led by Sen. Ted Cruz, who, much like Trump, has made college sports regulation a priority. He's been in negotiations now for months with several Democrats, most notably Chris Coons, Richard Blumenthal and Cory Booker. No agreement has been reached despite more than a year of intense talks. Will Trump's executive order change that? It's one of many questions on the topic that remains a mystery.
