Blending green hydrogen in refining, fertilisers can unlock 3 MMT demand by 2030: Report
green hydrogen
into existing hydrogen consumption in sectors like
oil refining
and
fertiliser production
can generate up to 3 million metric tonnes (MMT) of demand by 2030, a new report released by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Bain & Company, and Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) said on Thursday.
The report, From Promise to Purchase: Unlocking India's Green Hydrogen Demand, was launched at the CII International Business Conclave on Green Hydrogen in New Delhi. It outlines strategies to scale demand-side uptake of green hydrogen and meet India's national target of producing 5 MMT annually by the end of the decade.
Blending 40 per cent green hydrogen in refining operations could alone unlock up to 2 MMT of demand by 2030, while a 20 per cent blend in the fertiliser sector could add another 0.9 MMT. In piped natural gas (PNG), blending 10 per cent green hydrogen could support 0.1 MMT of demand.
'India's green hydrogen journey is a strategic shift toward energy independence and global competitiveness. The report highlights strategies to transition to green hydrogen which could create a demand of 5 MMT by 2030,' said Sumant Sinha, Chairman, CII Energy Transition and Hydrogen Council, and Chairman and CEO, ReNew.
The report also identifies public procurement and export-oriented growth as key additional levers. Mandating 10–15 per cent green steel in public infrastructure could unlock 0.4–0.6 MMT, while exports of green hydrogen and green steel may add 0.8–1.3 MMT to demand.
According to Bain & Company's Oil and Gas practice leader Sachin Kotak, while supply momentum is strong, 'demand-side interventions will be essential to translating this ambition into reality.'
In niche sectors like chemicals, glass, and ceramics, green hydrogen substitution could reach 0.07 MMT by 2030 with a 20 per cent shift from grey hydrogen. Smaller companies in these sectors already face high procurement costs for grey hydrogen, making green hydrogen a cost-neutral option.
Vineet Mittal, Co-chairman of the CII Energy Transition and Hydrogen Council and CMD, Avaada, said the report 'highlights sector-specific and demand-side opportunities' and points to critical catalysts such as low-cost financing and offtake security.
The report notes that India could generate export demand of 0.8–1.1 MMT of green hydrogen by capturing 5–7.5 per cent of global import demand. Green steel exports to the EU, driven by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, could add another 0.13–0.18 MMT.
'Purchase obligations for fertiliser and refining, calibrated to rise with falling costs, can anchor additional volumes,' said Jagabanta Ningthoujam, Principal, RMI.
India currently exports 3.3 MT of steel to the EU, which is expected to rise to 4.5 MT by 2030. If 50–70 per cent of this transitions to green steel, it could significantly contribute to the green hydrogen uptake, the report said.
The report calls for long-term offtake agreements, blended finance, carbon pricing frameworks, hydrogen hubs, and international certification to enable full-scale adoption and project viability.
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