Ready for blast-off: Can China's commercial space firms replicate SpaceX magic?

Straits Times

2 days ago

A methane-fuelled rocket by LandSpace Technology, takes off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, in China, on May 17. PHOTO: REUTERS
– On a clear morning on May 17, a methane-fuelled rocket thundered off its launchpad in the Gobi Desert, piercing the sky over northwestern China carrying six satellites into orbit.
This marked the fifth successful flight for LandSpace, one of China's rising commercial aerospace companies, and underlined Beijing's ambition to catapult its commercial space sector onto the global stage.
Two days later, Galactic Energy, another fast-growing Chinese space player, launched a rocket from a ship at sea off eastern Shandong province, deploying four satellites into orbit.
The number of rocket launches in China by both state-owned and private firms is expected to hit a record high in 2025, according to Chinese industry reports, amid plans to ramp up investment in the sector.
So far, China has carried out more than 30 orbital launches, including at least six in June, with more on the horizon. In 2024, the country recorded 68 orbital launches and in 2023, 67 launches.
China's space sector used to be tightly controlled by the state until it was opened up to private companies in 2015.
Today, there are over 500 commercial space companies in China.
China's commercial space market is projected to balloon from around 2.8 trillion yuan (S$497.9 billion) in 2025 to over 6.6 trillion yuan by 2029, according to various research estimates.
In 2024, the Chinese government listed the commercial space sector as a 'new engine of economic growth' in its government work report for the first time, prompting cities such as Beijing and Shanghai to roll out plans to accelerate investment in the sector.
Private firms offer services such as space tourism, satellite internet, Earth imaging for farming or city planning purposes as well as private rocket launches for putting small satellites into orbit.
In Beijing's southern Daxing district, more than 160 aerospace-related enterprises have formed a cluster nicknamed 'Rocket Street'. The city is building an exhibition hall where visitors, from the second half of 2025, can watch real-time launches of commercial rockets across China.
Catching up with the US
China's space startups are chasing what analysts call the 'SpaceX moment' or a breakthrough that sees a private Chinese space firm rival Elon Musk's rocket giant on the global stage.
SpaceX is the undisputed industry leader, accounting for more than half of the world's 259 orbital launches i n 2024. It is largely thanks to its reusable Falcon 9 workhorse, which has reduced costs for its customers.
At least six Chinese commercial space companies have so far successfully launched rockets into orbit. But none have yet to launch and recover a reusable rocket in the way SpaceX has done so since 2017.
China's progress is evident, but it still lags far behind the US , said Mr Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
'China has not been able to replicate the SpaceX magic, but arguably no other company anywhere has been able to do space at scale like SpaceX,' he said.
Investors in China hoping to emulate SpaceX's success have poured money into Chinese private space companies with launch capabilities. Bu t these Chinese firms operate on 'a very small scale', especially compared with SpaceX or Rocket Lab, which is founded in New Zealand but headquartered in the US.
Rocket reusability lies at the crux of China's commercial space ambitions, as it is a key factor in cutting launch costs and attracting clients outside of China.
Dr Svetla Ben-Itzhak, assistant professor of space and international relations at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, said that while China's private firms are about five to seven years behind SpaceX in reusable launch technology, the gap could close more rapidly given advances in propulsion and accelerated development cycles.
Chinese aerospace firms are optimistic about their prospects, with at least two founders of these companies saying that they could match SpaceX's capabilities by 2030.
LandSpace founder Zhang Changwu, for instance, said in a June interview that the next three to five years will be a 'decisive period' for China's commercial space industry. His company is aiming for China's first orbital reusable flight by the end of 2025.
Space tourism looks set to be launched in China soon.
Deep Blue Aerospace, a Chinese firm developing reusable rockets, plans to conduct a 12-minute suborbital flight – meaning the rocket will reach outer space but not enter orbit – for space tourists in 2027.
Its first two tickets, priced at 1.5 million yuan, were snapped up the moment they went on sale in October 2024. Meanwhile, state-backed CAS Space has pledged to begin space tourism flights by 2028.
However, barriers remain for Chinese firms eyeing global markets.
'International customers want high reliability rates and China's commercial launchers generally just don't have that yet,' said CSIS' Mr Swope.
Lingering trust issues with China may also hold back international interest in using China's space services for launch, remote sensing or broadband, he said.
'Due to geopolitical developments, would a Chinese company shut off service to international customers? Are there security concerns arising from the use of a Chinese company?' said Mr Swope.
Dr Ben-Itzhak echoed these sentiments, noting that the distrust of Chinese tech is the main hindrance, largely due to perceived and often explicit links to the Chinese government and military, and concerns over transparency.
There have also been setbacks in China's commercial space push.
In June 2024, a test rocket by Chinese firm Space Pioneer malfunctioned and crashed in central Henan province. No one was hurt, but the company compensated locals for damaged buildings.
Months later, in December, the initial public offering (IPO) of Jilin-based satellite firm Chang Guang Satellite Technology was abruptly halted, raising fresh doubts about the sector's profitability and long-term prospects.
Even so, Chinese companies, particularly state-owned ones, are making inroads in markets that are friendlier to China. In November 2024, CAS Space's commercial rocket delivered a remote-sensing satellite for Oman, marking a key step into the international market.
Analysts said a breakout moment for China's space startups may not just come from reusable rockets but could also come in the form of a high-profile IPO, securing more foreign clients or completing a broadband satellite mega-constellation akin to Starlink.
SpaceX now has more than 7,800 Starlink satellites in operation. In comparison, China's two main competitors, Guowang and Qianfan, have deployed about 50 and just under 100 satellites respectively.
Still, Qianfan has inked partnerships to offer satellite communications in Brazil, Malaysia and Thailand and is eyeing dozens of other markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Dr Ben-Itzhak said if a private Chinese company breaks through globally, it would not only challenge US commercial dominance but could also change perceptions of China from being a state space power to an innovation leader in space tech.
'This would be comparable to Huawei's rise in telecom,' she said. 'But this time, with rockets and satellites.'
Michelle Ng is China Correspondent at The Straits Times. She is interested in Chinese foreign policies, property trends, demographics, education and rural issues.
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