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The sleeper Supreme Court decision that could have profound impacts on the Trump administration agenda – and restore faith in the high court

The sleeper Supreme Court decision that could have profound impacts on the Trump administration agenda – and restore faith in the high court

Yahoo5 days ago

The American public's trust in the Supreme Court has fallen precipitously over the past decade. Many across the political spectrum see the court as too political.
This view is only strengthened when Americans see most of the justices of the court dividing along ideological lines on decisions related to some of the most hot-button issues the court handles. Those include reproductive rights, voting rights, corporate power, environmental protection, student loan policy, worker rights and LGBTQ+ rights.
But there is one recent decision where the court was unanimous in its ruling, perhaps because its holding should not be controversial: National Rifle Association v. Vullo. In that 2024 case, the court said that it's a clear violation of the First Amendment's free speech provisions for government to force people to speak and act in ways that are aligned with its policies.
The second Trump administration has tried to wield executive branch power in ways that appear to punish or suppress speech and opposition to administration policy priorities. Many of those attempts have been legally challenged and will likely make their way to the Supreme Court.
The somewhat under-the-radar – yet incredibly important – decision in National Rifle Association v. Vullo is likely to figure prominently in Supreme Court rulings in a slew of those cases in the coming months and years, including those involving law firms, universities and the Public Broadcasting Service.
That's because, in my view as a legal scholar, they are all First Amendment cases.
Why the NRA sued a New York state official
In May 2024, in an opinion written by reliably liberal Sonia Sotomayor, a unanimous court ruled that the efforts of New York state government officials to punish companies doing business with the NRA constituted clear violations of the First Amendment.
Following its own precedent from the 1960s, Bantam Books v. Sullivan, the court found that government officials 'cannot attempt to coerce private parties in order to punish or suppress views that the government disfavors.'
Many of the current targets of the Trump administration's actions have claimed similar suppression of their First Amendment rights by the government. They have fought back, filing lawsuits that often cite the National Rifle Association v. Vullo decision in their efforts.
To date, the most egregious examples of actions that violate the principles announced by the court – the executive orders against law firms – have largely been halted in the lower courts, with those decisions often citing what's now known as the Vullo decision.
While these cases may still be working their way through the lower courts, it is likely that the Supreme Court will ultimately consider legal challenges to the Trump administration's efforts in a range of areas.
These would include the executive orders against law firms, attempts to cut government grants and research funding from universities, potential moves to strip nonprofits of their tax-exempt status, and regulatory actions punishing media companies for what the White House believes to be unfavorable coverage.
The court could also hear disputes over the government terminating contracts with a family of companies that provides satellite and communications support to the U.S. government generally and the military in particular.
Despite the variety of organizations and government actions involved in these lawsuits, they all can be seen as struggles over free speech and expression, like Vullo.
Whether it is private law firms, multinational corporations, universities or members of the media, all have one thing in common: They have all been targeted by the Trump administration for the same reason – they are engaged in actions or speech that is disfavored by President Donald Trump.
Protecting speech, regardless of politics
The NRA, an often-controversial gun-rights advocacy organization, was the plaintiff in the Vullo decision.
But just because the groups that have been targeted by the Trump administration are across the political divide from the NRA does not mean the outcome in decisions relying on the court's opinion will be different. In fact, these groups can rely on the same arguments advanced by the NRA, and are, I believe, likely to win.
Vullo isn't the only decision on which the court can rely when considering challenges to the Trump administration's efforts targeting these groups.
In the wake of World War II, Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson took a leave from the court and served as a prosecutor in the Nuremberg trials of Nazi leaders. Prosecuting them for their atrocities, Jackson saw how the Nuremberg defendants wielded government authority to punish enemies who resisted their rise and later opposed their rule.
Once he returned to the court, Jackson wrote the majority opinion in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette, where the court found that students who refused to salute the American flag and recite the Pledge of Allegiance at school could not be expelled.
Jackson's opinion is a forceful rejection of government attempts to control what people say: 'If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein.'
If some of the cases testing the state's power to force fidelity to the executive branch reach the Supreme Court, the cases could offer the justices the opportunity to, once again, speak with one voice as they did in NRA v. Vullo, to demonstrate it can be evenhanded and will not play politics with the First Amendment.

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Trump's latest trade threat looms over Wall Street as investors celebrate stock market's return to record territory
Trump's latest trade threat looms over Wall Street as investors celebrate stock market's return to record territory

Yahoo

time25 minutes ago

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Trump's latest trade threat looms over Wall Street as investors celebrate stock market's return to record territory

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Goldman Sachs warns tariffs won't help the U.S. boost manufacturing productivity as tech in American factories continues to lag
Goldman Sachs warns tariffs won't help the U.S. boost manufacturing productivity as tech in American factories continues to lag

Yahoo

time26 minutes ago

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Goldman Sachs warns tariffs won't help the U.S. boost manufacturing productivity as tech in American factories continues to lag

U.S. manufacturing has decelerated recently, both as a result of increased competition from China and as part of a broader manufacturing productivity slowdown. Goldman Sachs analysts argue tariffs will not lower supply chain and labor costs enough to boost reshoring, and instead, increased automation will be the most likely driver of a manufacturing productivity boost. As China continues to best the United States in manufacturing capabilities, tariffs may not be America's best bet to boost factory productivity. Instead, the U.S. should look to AI and automation to gain an edge in manufacturing, Goldman Sachs analysts argue. President Donald Trump aspires to return factory jobs to American shores by imposing steep tariffs on U.S. manufacturing rivals, but the taxes can only incentivize reshoring so much, analysts said in a note published Thursday. Instead, manufacturers should look to automation and the ever-more-accessible artificial intelligence as their best chance for boosting domestic manufacturing. 'A pickup in the pace of innovation—potentially from recent advances in robotics and generative AI—therefore remains the catalyst most likely to reverse the long-run stagnation in manufacturing productivity,' analyst Joseph Briggs and colleagues said in the note. As China capitalizes on automation and cheaper labor to grow its export footprint, the Bank of America Institute has found mounting evidence of a recent U.S. manufacturing slowdown, including U.S. Census Bureau data showing new orders for manufactured durable goods decreasing 6.3% in April. The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has fallen since March, also indicating a contraction. The U.S.'s productivity woes are part of a larger manufacturing productivity slowdown happening over the last two decades as a result of investment pullback following the global financial crisis, as well as a slowdown in the burst of technological advancements of the early 2000s, according to Goldman Sachs. Trump's tariff plans for China—which the president has not disclosed, despite touting a new trade deal—aim to help the U.S. claw back manufacturing opportunities from its economic rival. But while they make consumers' lives more expensive, they are not a panacea for manufacturers, the bank argued in its note. 'Tariffs are unlikely to result in much reshoring because production costs in other countries are well below the U.S.' for most products (even after accounting for tariffs), and China will likely continue to grow its exports on the back of cost advantages and industrial policy support,' the note said. 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Companies such as aviation precision parts-maker MSP Manufacturing have already begun to adapt accordingly. MSP president and chief operating officer Johnny Goode recently learned of an AI-powered software able to program the machine building the precision parts, reducing production time from an hour and a half to seven minutes per part—plus 15 minutes necessary for a human operator to refine it. 'I was like, holy snap, this is going to be a game changer,' Goode told Fortune's Jeremy Kahn this week. 'Going from 90 minutes to 22 minutes is a big deal, and we've seen that get even better as we've learned to use the software more.' Goldman Sachs analysts conceded that while automation provides the largest area for growth in manufacturing productivity in the U.S., it is unlikely to solve the broader manufacturing slowdown, which is global. The slowdown is 'historically unusual,' Briggs said, with the maturation of the tech sector the likely culprit. Any hope for a global uptick in productivity would come from mass advancement and adoption of AI and robotics on a large scale. 'The main thing that would drive a large pickup in manufacturing productivity and manufacturing growth would be a sharp increase in the pace of innovation,' Briggs said. 'And this type of inflection upwards and technological progress are very hard to predict.' Advancement in tech could have a two-fold benefit for domestic manufacturing productivity, both in driving factory investments and in bettering technology to be installed in factories to automate tasks. But with the specifics of the future of AI and automation applications still unknown, it's difficult to predict whether a reversal of a domestic manufacturing slowdown is truly possible. 'We just need to see it happen before we have a lot of confidence in that dynamic being a big driver,' Briggs said. This story was originally featured on

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