India's Lithium-ion battery demand to rise to 115 GWh by 2030; graphite recycling a major hurdle: Study
India Cellular & Electronics Association
(ICEA).
The study, released on Wednesday, projected that the LiB demand in the EV sector will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48 per cent, followed by stationary storage (14 per cent) and consumer electronics (3 per cent), between 2025 and 2030.
India's rising demand for LiBs is expected to be supplemented by domestic cell manufacturing, driven by the ambitious plans of cell manufacturers.
The domestic cell manufacturing is expected to reach approximately 220 GWh by 2030, supported by the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) Battery Storage, according to the study. Manufacturers such as Rajesh Exports, Ola Electric Mobility, and Reliance New Energy Solar have already received PLI incentives for establishing a cumulative capacity of 40 GWh.
This capacity would require an estimated $5-11 billion worth of key battery-active materials, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, which are predominantly imported due to a lack of domestic reserves. Consequently, recycling of LiBs could present a reliable domestic source of supply, the study said.
But the domestic supply is largely dependent on recycling, where India lags.
The Bureau of Waste Management Rules (BWMR) has estimated that demand for domestic recycling and recycled material may reach 200-250 kilotons (kT) by 2030. By contrast, the study found that the recycled battery active material supply from existing and lab-stage operations is a mere 1-3 kT, falling far short of the anticipated need of 3-15 kT between 2027 and 2030.
The key hurdle is the recycling of graphite, a primary active material in cell anodes. Globally, too, graphite recycling presently yields lower-purity outputs, making them unsuitable for battery applications, effectively leading to a zero-supply assumption for recycled graphite from LiBs.
'As a result, producers would have to rely on non-critical materials in batteries, such as aluminum and plastics used in the module and peripheral components of battery systems for recycled materials,' the study said, adding that these materials contribute 24–25 per cent of the weight of EVs and stationary storage batteries.
'Even if gradually 50 per cent of peripheral materials are manufactured using recycled plastic and aluminum by 2030, which is challenging in itself, the recycled content targets starting from 2027 are unlikely to be achieved due to progressively increasing targets,' according to the study, which cautioned that this does not augur well with India's desired transition towards circularity in critical battery materials.
Simultaneously, the LiB recycling ecosystem can potentially create more than 25,000 direct and indirect jobs between 2025 and 2030.
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