July Fed cut is off the table and September's is now in question, says CFR's Rebecca Patterson
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Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Fed Chair warns of 'uncertainties' as Trump's tariff decision looms
Fed Chair warns of 'uncertainties' as Trump's tariff decision looms originally appeared on TheStreet. On July 22, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell responded to questions on President Donald Trump's tariffs, calling them "uncertain," noting that possible developments could significantly alter many aspects of the upcoming economic outlook. He reiterated that interest rate decisions are highly dependent on data. At press time, Bitcoin, often sensitive to monetary policy signals, was trading at $119,415.89, up nearly 1% on the day, as per Kraken. Speaking at the ECB's annual monetary policy conference in Sintra, Portugal, Powell emphasized that the FOMC will require more data before making any policy changes. He remarked that, although inflation is moderating and the labor market remains strong, with unemployment at 4.2% and real wages rising, the FOMC needs "actual data" to be more confident that inflation will return to its 2% target on a sustainable basis."That confidence would be building without tariffs," Powell said, indicating that the uncertain effects of tariffs throughout the supply chain make it uniquely challenging to forecast inflation. He also added that "The pass-through of tariffs to consumer inflation is very uncertain." Powell reiterated that policy is "modestly restrictive" and that the Fed is watching how tariffs are affecting goods prices and core PCE inflation. He noted that it is essential to maintain humility in forecasting, given the high level of "economic uncertainty". Powell's response to new Fed Chair When asked about speculation related to leadership changes at the Fed, Powell emphasized that the Fed's monetary framework is a committee document and not attributable to any one person. "It's not as if we're going to invent a completely new way to do things. It's been an evolving document. So it shouldn't depend on who the chair is at all. It should depend on what's happening in the economy and what the committee wants to do. So it isn't really tied to any particular chair. And, you know, we used to, we used to renew it every year. Now we do it every five years. So, but I don't think anybody, I've never heard anyone raise this issue that, you know, a new chair might want to come in and go in a completely different direction." Influence on crypto markets Tariff shocks have been known to create volatility in the crypto markets. The crypto market cap declined from $2.74 trillion on Apr. 2 — when Trump announced tariff hikes — to $2.42 trillion on Apr. 8. As the president froze tariff hikes on all except China on Apr. 9, the market cap began recovering and neared the pre-Apr. 2 levels on Apr. 12 as it reached $2.71 trillion. Currently, it stands at $3.94 trillion. Even Bitcoin declined from $85,000 on Apr. 2 to $76,000 on Apr. 8 due to the tariff shock but soon recovered to the previous level by Apr. 12. Now, it's trading well above $119,000. The Fed is closely watching the impact of tariffs on the market and will take steps regarding rate adjustments accordingly. Crypto traders should look for the broader market signals to anticipate policy moves on the part of the Fed. Fed Chair warns of 'uncertainties' as Trump's tariff decision looms first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025, where it first appeared. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
4 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Analysts reboot Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Lines stock price targets on strong value
All ashore who's going ashore! The travel industry has been on the upswing since the dark days of the Covid-19 pandemic and that trend seems poised to continue. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter A recent Deloitte survey found that more travelers planned to raise their holiday travel budgets from the prior-year level. And among those, 40% said they would do so because "travel has become more important to me since the pandemic." The report said affordability was often the biggest barrier to travel, noting that "either a hit to consumer confidence or persistent high prices could challenge travel demand in the coming year." About one in five Americans surveyed said they had opted out of a trip they wanted to take due to the high cost of flights or lodging, Deloitte said. The report also warned of the Trump administration's tariffs and deportations of undocumented workers, which could result in staffing shortages. The cruise industry has been growing steadily, according to Cruise Lines International Association's state-of-the-industry report, which was issued in May. Image source: Carnival Cruise Line Bud Darr, the association's president and CEO, said in a statement that cruising "continues to be one of the most dynamic and resilient sectors in tourism, growing in line with strong demand for cruise holidays, particularly among younger generations and new-to-cruise travelers." Cruise travel earns higher satisfaction ratings compared with other holiday choices, the report said. That's shown in repeat factors – 25% of repeat cruisers sail two or more times per year; 14% cruise twice a year; and 11% take three to five cruises a year. More Economic Analysis: GOP plan to remove Fed Chair Powell escalatesFederal Reserve official gives green light to July rate cutTrump deflects reports on firing Fed Chair Powell 'soon'Former Federal Reserve official sends bold message on 'regime change' Expedition and exploration cruises are the fastest-growing segments of cruise, with 22% more passengers choosing these voyages in 2024 over 2023. Forty-two million people - roughly the population of France - are forecast to sail in 2028, up 21% from 34.6 million last year. And the report said cruising has plenty of room for growth, since it is currently only 2.7% of the international travel and tourism sector. Several investment firms have been reviewing the cruise industry and issued research reports on some of the top companies. TD Cowen initiated coverage of both Carnival (CCL) with a buy rating and $36 price target and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) , which got a buy rating and $31 target. Carnival shares are up 20% this year and up 62% from a year ago, while Norwegian stock has slipped nearly 10% in 2025 and are up 18% from a year ago. The investment firm also initiated coverage of Royal Caribbean (RCL) with a buy rating and $405 price target. The company's shares are up 51% this year and have more than doubled (up 107%) from a year ago. TD Cowen's analysts called the cruise lines "underappreciated" share gainers in the travel space, according to The Fly. The cruise names offer a strong value proposition, which will drive long-term share gains, the firm said. TD estimates annual revenue growth of 7% for the industry through 2029. It views Carnival as an industry leader with an opportunity to widen profit margins. Citi raised its price target on Carnival to $37 from $30 and affirmed a buy rating on the shares. It lifted its target on Norwegian to $30 from $25 and maintained a buy rating. The investment firm says "better-than-ever" demand and lower-than-historical supply growth are setting up a favorable pricing environment that could last much longer than investors expect. Citi says recent data show improving trends in May through July. The firm replaced Royal Caribbean with Carnival on its Focus List. Related: Cruise lines, Las Vegas Strip gamblers get good IRS news Truist analyst C. Patrick Scholes downgraded Royal Caribbean to hold from buy with a price target of $337, up from $275. Scholes said that he has observed a bounce-back in bookings since April's pullback. But when he averages March-through-early-July's bookings compared with a year earlier, the demand pace is up only low-to-mid-single digits percent, off from the high-teens monthly pace that 2024 averaged, the analyst said. Norwegian Cruise Line is scheduled to report second-quarter results July 31, while Royal Caribbean is slated to report July 29. For the fiscal first half ended May 31, Carnival swung to net income of 37 cents a share from a loss of a dime a share in the year-earlier half. Revenue rose 8.5% to $12.14 billion. Related: Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls due to Lower T-note Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.47% and posted a 1.5-week low. The dollar was under pressure Tuesday from lower T-note yields. Losses in the dollar accelerated after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low. The dollar found some underlying support Tuesday on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said, 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The dollar has been under pressure due to concern President Trump might fire Powell, which could prompt foreign investors to shun dollar assets over questions of the Fed's independence. More News from Barchart Dollar Falls as Stocks Rally and T-note Yields Decline Dollar Slips Due to Strength in Stocks and Lower T-note Yields Dollar Weakens and Gold Rallies as T-note Yields Slide Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. The US July Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions index unexpectedly fell -12 to an 11-month low of -20, weaker than expectations of an increase to -2. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday rose by +0.47% and posted a 2-week high. Dollar weakness on Tuesday boosted the euro. The euro also has support on expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at Thursday's policy meeting. Gains in the euro were limited after Tuesday's quarterly Bank Lending Survey from the ECB said that loan demand remained weak, a dovish factor for ECB policy and negative for the euro. The euro is also under pressure on concerns that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Higher tariff rates on EU goods could undercut the Eurozone economy, a bearish factor for the euro. The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey stated that 'Loan demand was supported by declining interest rates, but dampened by global uncertainty and trade tensions, and while lenders saw a slight net increase in loan demand in Q2, the uptake remained weak overall.' Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday fell by -0.58%. The yen recovered from overnight losses and climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar Tuesday after T-note yields fell when Treasury Secretary Bessent said 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The yen initially moved lower Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that BOJ policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. A report from Bloomberg said that Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to shift their policy stance of gradually raising interest rates after Prime Minister Ishiba's election setback and that policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. Policymakers also want to see how any trade deal between Japan and the US affects the inflation trend and the economy going forward before raising rates again. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed up +37.30 (+1.09%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.221 (+0.56%). Precious metals settled higher on Tuesday, with gold climbing to a 5-week high, Sep silver posting a contract high, and nearest-futures (N25) silver posting a nearly 14-year high. Tuesday's fall in the dollar index to a 1.5-week low was bullish for metals prices. Also, lower global bond yields on Tuesday were supportive for precious metals. In addition, precious metals garnered support from today's ECB quarterly Bank Lending Survey, which said loan demand remained weak in Q2, a dovish factor for ECB policy. Finally, precious metals have safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a nearly 2-year high Monday. Silver prices were undercut Tuesday after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low, a negative factor for industrial metals demand. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
