
Japanese PM set to resign after bruising election loss, local media reports
The reports come after Ishiba and US President Donald Trump unveiled a trade deal that lowers tariffs on imports of Japanese autos and spares Tokyo punishing new levies on other goods.
In the wake of Sunday's poll drubbing, Ishiba said he would stay in office to pursue the tariff agreement and tackle mounting economic problems.
"I can't say until I scrutinise the outcome of the agreement," Ishiba told reporters on Wednesday when asked whether the tariff deal with Washington would influence his decision on whether to stay on.
Ishiba told his close associates on Tuesday evening that he would address his responsibility for the election loss after a trade deal had been reached, the Yomiuri newspaper reported earlier.
His departure less than a year after taking office would trigger a succession battle within the ruling Liberal Democratic party as it contends with challenges from new political parties, particularly on the right, that are stealing its support.
Among them is the "Japanese First" Sanseito far-right group which surged in Sunday's vote, growing its representation in the 248-seat upper house to 14 from one. The party has attracted voters with pledges to curb immigration, slash taxes and provide financial relief to households squeezed by rising prices.
Ishiba defeated hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi in a party leadership runoff last year.
Ishiba is expected to meet ruling party heavyweights later on Wednesday for discussions on the election outcome.
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Explicitly inspired by far-right political forces in the US and Europe including US President Donald Trump's MAGA movement, Alternative for Germany and France's National Rally, the 'Japanese First' group has championed severely restricting the number of migrants in Japan – to be capped at 5 percent of the native-born population in each municipality – tightening the rules around naturalisation, encouraging women to leave the workplace to become stay-at-home mothers and preventing any recognition of the female Imperial Line. 02:34 Launched on YouTube in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, Sanseito gained its first followers with a barrage of videos opposing public health measures put in place by the government to stem the virus's spread, including mask mandates, vaccine requirements and PCR testing. 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For those who have watched the rise of far-right nativist groups across the world, it's a familiar tale – albeit one that feels somewhat out of place in Japan, a country where immigrants make up just 3 percent of the country's shrinking population. Japan's government loses upper house majority 04:14 Although immigration remains meagre compared to other developed countries, Akira Igarashi, an assistant professor at Osaka University's Faculty of Human Sciences who researches policy and social attitudes towards migrants, said the number of people moving to Japan had risen sharply in the decades since 1989, when the country uneasily opened its borders to migrant labour. 'Nowadays it's almost 3 percent out of the total population, while about 10 years ago, it was more like 1.5 or 1.6," he said. Having long relied on its vast rural workforce and mass-mechanisation of heavy industry, Japan began in the 1980s to attract more and more migrant workers from across Asia and the Japanese diaspora in Latin America. These workers were largely drawn to the country's small- and medium-scale manufacturers and service industries, meeting a demand that has only grown more acute as Japan's population ages and its birthrates drop. Paired with Japan's long-stagnant economy, the weakening yen has led to a sense of economic decline compounded with a global cost-of-living crisis that has hit the nation hard. 'The combination – economic decline and the drastic increase in the migrant population – makes a political opportunity for the anti-migrant party, the radical Sanseito party,' Igarashi said. He said that Sanseito and similar right-wing populist parties in Japan had consciously adopted the rhetoric adopted by far-right forces in the US and Western Europe. 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Many of whom still lack legal citizenship despite having lived in the country for generations. In the last two to three decades, Narita said, there has been 'a lot of shifting within the conservative party that accommodates much more reactionary ideological sentiments'. Abe was, like many LDP members, part of the ultranationalist Nippon Kaigi group, accused of lobbying for negationist policies aimed at rehabilitating the legacy of fascist Imperial Japan. While prime minister, Abe publicly and repeatedly denied state involvement in the systematic sexual enslavement of Korean and Chinese women – known as 'comfort women' – during Imperial Japan's expansionist campaigns across Asia. The premier also downplayed Japanese atrocities in the Chinese city of Nanjing, visited a memorial shrine that included tributes to war criminals and tried to revise Japan's pacifist post-war constitution to allow the country to launch offensive military actions abroad. Igarashi said that the LDP had also helped promote anti-migrant sentiment through its efforts to head off Sanseito's assault on its right flank. 'On one hand, the LDP became more anti-migrant during the election campaign – I think this is quite similar to the US and European society – because the radical right Sanseito party made the migrant issue more central in Japanese society,' he said. 'And the LDP and the other parties tried to catch up on that issue – and the LDP especially, because they are more conservative.' 'They tried to establish a new institution to observe migrants, their lives and behaviours, and they called migrants illegal,' he said. 'So they became more anti-migrant during the election campaign, and evoked the threat to Japanese citizens even more.' Kamiya has roundly rejected the idea that his party is xenophobic. 'There is a real, very acute understanding, broadly speaking, that with the aging population there is a real, pragmatic economic need for a source of labour,' Narita said. 'And so in many ways, this sort of anti-foreign sentiment hasn't necessarily been as politicised to the same extent towards migrant communities who are very clearly filling that economic need. It's more subtle in the sense that what is being fostered … isn't necessarily about an overtly racist rhetoric as much as it's about a necessity of protecting Japanese culture.' But scratch the surface, she said, and it becomes clear that the party's vision of Japanese society remains rooted in racialised ideals of blood and belonging. In one of Sanseito's proposed policies, she said, the party would explicitly prohibit foreigners from having voting or civic rights, and it would not allow naturalised citizens to be able to hold public office until they had been naturalised for three generations. 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