Editorial: As we prepare to fire up our Fourth of July grills, sticker shock still reigns at the grocery store

Chicago Tribune

3 days ago

This Fourth of July, sure, there will be fireworks and parades. But many Americans just will want to enjoy a plate of ribs, corn on the cob and watermelon with family and friends. Some might be trimming guest lists — not for space, but to cut the grocery bill.
Even as overall inflation has been tempered of late, food prices continue eating huge chunks of our paychecks.
When food costs soared during COVID, there was hope the phenomenon would be temporary — something people would weather and then regard as an unfortunate blip, like the runs on toilet paper or our collective obsession with sourdough starters.
But food remained expensive well after the start of COVID, and the price of groceries was a common source of voter frustration heading into the 2024 election.
We're all still forking over more to fill our stomachs today.
It's not helping matters that food producers are unsure from month to month how tariffs will affect their products.
But other complications have cropped up that have hit everyday staples.
Such as beef.
Whether it comes in burger or steak form, demand remains high for beef products, but production has hit a snag. U.S. cattle inventories have declined for six straight years, reaching their lowest levels since the early 1950s. And while herd rebuilding is expected to gain momentum in the next couple of years, expansion takes time. Prices in the meantime are forecasted to continue rising.
Of course, beef is just part of the overall cost of feeding a family. Poultry prices climbed strongly during the pandemic, then flattened around 2023-24, before increasing again in 2025.
Egg prices alone rose over 100% between 2020 and 2023 because of avian flu outbreaks. Egg prices are expected to grow in 2025.
Instacart estimates that a family of four may spend $300 to $350 per week, depending on location and age of children. That's up from about $250 per week in 2020. Many of you grocery shoppers reading this page are likely rolling your eyes, realizing that your full grocery bill is actually much higher. So high that many parents or shoppers grimace as they hand over their credit card, only to receive a lengthy receipt and a knowing shrug from the cashier.
This isn't the first time Americans have faced persistent, steep grocery bills. Those of us of a certain age remember previous bouts of sticker shock.
In the 1970s, food inflation peaked at around 20% annually in the early part of the decade. Beef, dairy, grains and sugar prices soared, and when President Richard Nixon imposed price controls in 1971, they backfired and made the problem worse.
In 2007-2008, a global food crisis caused by high oil prices, poor harvests and export restrictions led food prices to jump significantly. Globally, unrest broke out in several countries, including Mexico, Egypt and Peru, because of food scarcity and costs.
Then, of course, came COVID.
What makes the extended 2020–2025 period noteworthy is the length of sustained high prices, the breadth across all categories, and the overlap of multiple crises such as the pandemic, geopolitical instability and climate change. As of May, the cost of food at home had risen more than 28% since January 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. Over the past year, the cost of eating in has risen 2.2%, with sharper increases (6.1% overall) for proteins such as meat, fish, poultry and eggs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The cost of eating out has increased even more. Last Sunday, we looked with great concern at the crisis facing restaurants across the city. These owners and operators are likely nodding their head along with this editorial, too, knowing all too well the pain of higher food costs, which combined with soaring labor costs are compelling too many independent restaurant owners to close.
What will provide relief? An increase in food supplies would help. An end to the Trump administration's trade bellicosity would be welcome. Lower energy costs would contribute to easing food prices.
More broadly, competitive markets — globally and locally — should restore equilibrium over time. That's true among big food producers as well as grocers. We're believers that, allowed to function as freely as possible, markets will provide supplies capable of meeting demand.
In the meantime, elected officials need to stop making the problems worse. We're thinking primarily of local grocery taxes, which many Illinois municipalities are adopting ahead of the expiration of the state grocery tax. That 1% tax on groceries flows to local governments, and the state will stop collecting it at the end of the year. Nearly 200 communities thus far across the state have moved to impose their own grocery tax to keep that revenue flowing, and the city of Chicago is considering doing so as well.
Feeding a family has become a financial strain for millions of Americans, particularly low- and middle-income households. In terms of 'kitchen table' issues, there are few more fundamental than being able to afford to feed our families. Until weekly trips to the grocery store become less harrowing, Americans will continue to feel sour about the state of their nation.