2Q 2025 GDP Likely To Grow 4.5–5.5 Pct Amid Tariff Rush -- Economists
By Siti Noor Afera Abu
KUALA LUMPUR, July 16 (Bernama) -- Economists have projected the Malaysian economy to expand between 4.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q 2025), driven partly by increased export demand, especially from the United States (US) importers due to heightened fears of impending tariff in August.
Putra Business School Associate Professor Dr Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff said the service, manufacturing and construction sectors are likely to contribute the most to 2Q 2025 growth.
"I expect Malaysia's 2Q gross domestic product (GDP) to show growth. There is also a possibility that the mining and agriculture sectors would make a higher contribution to the economy," he told Bernama.
The Statistics Department Malaysia (DOSM) is scheduled to announce the advance GDP estimates for 2Q 2025 on Friday, July 18, followed by an Aug 15, 2025 official announcement.
However, Ahmed Razman cautioned that the growth momentum could decelerate in the second half of the year (2H 2025) once the US tariff comes into effect.
Nevertheless, the recent reduction of the overnight policy rate (OPR) might catalyse the domestic market to generate higher demand for products and services, he said.
On July 9, Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the OPR by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, a pre-emptive measure to preserve Malaysia's steady growth path amid moderate inflation prospects.
BNM last kept the OPR at 2.75 per cent in March 2023. It was increased to three per cent in May 2023.

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