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U.S.-E.U. Trade Deal Lifts Oil By Over 2.5%, But Will The Rally Last?
Oil wells between Sundre and Olds, in Alberta, Canada on May 22, 2025. (Photo: Artur Widak) Oil futures rose by over 2.5% on Monday following an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union, but doubts remain over the strength of the rally. At 14:50pm EDT, global proxy benchmark Brent's front-month futures contract was up $1.79 or 2.65% to $69.45 per barrel in U.S. trading, while the West Texas Intermediate front-month contract traded at $66.86 per barrel, up $1.70 or 2.61%. That's after U.S. president Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agreed to a trade deal at a meeting in Scotland on Sunday, following months of tension between both sides. Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. will levy a 15% baseline tariff for most E.U. exports to the states, increasing the current tariff rates nearly three times over, but limiting a higher tariff threat of 30% that Trump threatened on August 1 if talks between both parties had collapsed. Higher U.S. Energy Exports, Lower Trade Tension In exchange, the Europeans have also promised to import U.S. energy - primarily oil and liquefied natural gas - worth $250 billion for three years. If reflected in the data, that would mark a massive increase in U.S. energy exports to Europe. For context, in 2024, total E.U. purchases of U.S. energy products, including coal, was less than $100 billion, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy. Wherever the energy trade volume goes, the easing of tensions will likely provide stability to nearly $2 trillion worth of trade between the U.S. and the E.U. It triggered a relief rally in the oil and equity markets, as trading resumed after the weekend on Monday. The deal will require the approval of all 27 E.U. members. While each of these nations has differing interests and exposure to goods exports to the U.S., so far, no member state has indicated that it intended to block the deal from coming into force, despite little celebration among European leaders. The uptick also strengthened prices further from last week, after Trump reached a trade deal with Japan just as the U.S. summer driving season, marked by higher demand, offers an additional upside. The latest price move brings Brent futures closer to $70 per barrel, a level it is tipped to cap at the height of the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, fears of a oil surplus refuse to go away, and for good reason, because the crude market remains adequately supplied. Will The Oil Rally Last? Earlier this month, OPEC+, a select group of Russia-led oil producers and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, opted to raise production levels for August by another 548,000 barrels per day. Producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman said 'healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook' were behind the move. But the real story continues to be the rise of non-OPEC, especially U.S., production. According to the EIA, the nation's crude production hit an all-time high of 13.47 million bpd in April, breaking a previous record of 13.45 million bpd set in October 2024. On Monday, it also confirmed that U.S. onshore production on Federal lands also rose to a record high of 1.7 million bpd in 2024, a sign of continued strength over the near- to medium-term. The ranks of non-OPEC producers are also being boosted by higher output from Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. Collectively, non-OPEC production growth is likely to rise by 1.4 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency. It means that non-OPEC production growth alone is more than sufficient to account for global demand growth projections for this year that have been put forward by various forecasters. These range from 0.72 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd, with IEA and OPEC being at the opposite ends of that range. With additional barrels flowing in from all corners, there are fears the oil market may end up with a surplus of as much as 500,000 bpd or more. Given that OPEC+ now wants to take the fight to non-OPEC producers in a bid for market share, oil prices will likely head lower. For instance, back in May, prior to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East the following month, analysts at Goldman Sachs were predicting sub-$60 average oil prices - $56 for Brent and $52 for West Texas Intermediate as the year-end approaches. They were among a rising number of their peers lining up to trim oil price predictions for 2025-26 down to the $60s or below. Barring a major geopolitical escalation or macroeconomic event, that possibility may not be far away.
