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USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Fed likely to stand pat on interest rates, stay coy on September cut amid Trump pressure
When the Federal Reserve feels confident it's getting closer to raising or lowering interest rates based on a clear-cut outlook for the economy and inflation, it often signals its plans at the prior meeting to avoid surprising markets. Now is probably not one of those times. At a two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady despite President Donald Trump's monthslong campaign aimed at browbeating Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues into cutting rates. At a meeting with Powell at the Fed on Thursday, Trump said he's unlikely to try to fire the Fed chief, whose term expires in May. Two of the Fed's Republican governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have backed Trump's call for a rate cut as soon as this week's meeting and they could dissent, said JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli. It would mark the first time two Fed governors have dissented since 1993, Feroli said. Will the Fed reduce interest rates again? The drama, however, will center around whether Powell or the Fed's post-meeting statement will hint at a likely rate cut in September – a move that's forecast by fed fund futures markets. Investors expect a total of two rate decreases by year's end. 'It's really going to come down to Chair Powell,' said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic. 'What type of…guidance does he provide?' Yet Trump's trade war has left a haze of uncertainty over the economy since January. And while the contours of his tariffs are taking shape, many of the import fees and their effects on inflation and the economy are still playing out. 'It's a long way to September,' Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. 'The Fed needs more time to determine how the economy is evolving versus its goals.' In a research note, Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he doesn't expect the 'central bank to tip its hand, as it will want to remain flexible because of the lingering uncertainty of where tariffs will ultimately settle, the magnitude of the boost to core goods prices, and whether tariffs are bleeding into other prices.' What happens when the Fed adjusts interest rates? The Fed chops rates to lower borrowing costs and juice a flagging economy and job market. It raises rates or keeps them higher longer to curtail inflation by cooling the economy. But economists expect Trump's levies to both reignite inflation and hamper growth as cost-burdened households reduce spending, leaving officials torn between their two mandates. Powell has said the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to assess which tariff-related hazard poses a bigger problem. The Fed lowered its benchmark short-term rate by a percentage point late last year after a pandemic-related inflation spike eased but has since been on hold. What are the current tariffs in the US? Some of Trump's tariff plans and their effects on prices are becoming clearer. In the spring, Trump announced a 90-day pause on high double-digit reciprocal tariffs for China and many other countries, easing recession fears and reversing a stock market sell-off. White House officials extended the reprieve to Aug. 1 to provide more time for negotiations. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Phillipines and China, but the agreements still impose relatively high duties of 15% to 30%. Earlier this month, the president announced plans to raise the tariff rate on many Canadian imports from 25% to 35% and impose a blanket 15% to 20% duty on most other countries, up from 10%. He also threatened 30% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and the European Union, though the U.S. is still negotiating with those countries. Trump also has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and all imports from Brazil. Already in effect: a 50% levy on metals, 25% on cars and 30% on China. How are tariffs affecting inflation? For months, the fees had little effect on inflation, but they appeared to leave a bigger imprint in June as Chinese-made products got a bit more expensive, according to the consumer price index. Apparel prices rose by 0.4%; furniture, 1%; video and audio products, 1.1%; and toys, 1.8%. Overall, an underlying inflation measure the Fed follows closely ticked up from 2.8% to 2.9%, and many economists said the tariff effects were still mild. Yet that's largely because many retailers and manufacturers stocked up on goods before the fees took effect or absorbed the costs – tactics that forecasters say have run their course. Amid the uncertainty, Powell will likely take a middle-ground approach, Morgan Stanley says. The June inflation numbers 'should provide some confirmation to the (Fed) that the tariff push to inflation has begun, but not so much that would lead Powell to downplay the possibility of rate cuts this year,' Morgan Stanley wrote. How is the current economy in the USA? The economy is sending similarly mixed signals. A key measure of retail sales increased 0.5% in June. But economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said that's largely because of rising prices. Sales volumes appeared weak, he wrote. Morgan Stanley predicts a report Wednesday will reveal the economy grew a solid 2.2% in the April-June quarter, but it traces most of the gain to a reversal of a tariff-related import surge in the first quarter that caused the economy to shrink. (Imports are subtracted from gross domestic product because they're made in foreign countries.) How is the job market in the USA now? And wWhile employers added a sturdy 147,000 jobs in June, the private sector added just 74,000, mostly in health care. For many months, job gains have been concentrated in just a few sectors – health care, state and local governments, and leisure and hospitality. That's not a good omen for overall job growth in the months ahead, Bostjancic said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a report Friday to show the U.S. added just 118,000 jobs in July. With the labor market slowing, tariff tensions easing and their effects on inflation still modest, Bostjancic believes Powell could warm slightly to the idea of trimming rates in September. 'I would think he can sound a little more open to cutting rates just because of the data,' Bostjancic said. She expects the average U.S. tariff to rise from about 2% earlier this year to about 20%. That, she said, would push inflation from 2.7% to 3% by December – above the Fed's 2% goal but below the 3.4% many forecasters predicted a few months ago. At the same time, she noted that Trump's attacks on Powell and the Fed's independence have caused investors to worry officials ultimately may cut rates for political – rather than sound economic – reasons, driving inflation higher. As a result, market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, a trend that could push up long-term rates and ironically undermine Trump's demands for lower borrowing costs. 'I don't think he'll send a hard signal,' Bostjancic said of Powell. 'I think he'll leave it open.'
Forbes
17 hours ago
- Forbes
At JPMorganChase, AI Innovation Is An Operating Committee Mandate
JPMorganChase What distinguishes artificial intelligence (AI) leaders from AI followers? A recent survey reported that 89% of Fortune 1000 companies recognize that artificial intelligence (AI) will be the most transformational technology in a generation. Love it or hate it, AI is inevitable. Organizations will need to adapt or risk falling behind. JPMorganChase (JPMorgan), the largest U.S. bank with origins tracing back over 225 years to 1799, is seizing upon the moment with a forward-looking long-term vision for AI, which is articulated in the company's mission for the future and embodied at all levels of the organization. This commitment to embracing AI is evident in the composition of the firm's 14-member Operating Committee, where Teresa Heitsenrether occupies a prominent position as chief data and analytics officer (CDAO) for the firm. JPMorgan is at the forefront--very few Fortune 1000 organizations have elevated the CDAO to an operating committee role. I recently hosted Heitsenrether on an industry panel of data and AI leaders, and follow up conversation. We discussed her leadership role at JPMorgan, and how the company is planning for and executing on its long-term vision for AI as a tool for innovation and industry transformation. A career JPMorgan veteran, Heitsenrether is responsible for establishing the data and analytics strategy as well as driving firmwide adoption of AI across lines of business. Having served as a line-of-business leader, most recently as the Global Head of Securities Services, Heitsenrether understands that AI leadership begins with a business strategy that recognizes, first and foremost, that AI is a technology tool which must deliver business benefits and business value to the company and to its customers. She explains, 'Coming from the business gives you a different lens. Having been at the firm for my whole career, I have a good perspective on the businesses and what's most important to them.' While some organizations think of AI as a technology issue—47% of CDAOs report into technology functions—a growing percentage of companies—36%--see AI as a business function that should report to the seniormost business leadership of the firm. JPMorgan exemplifies this shift to a business focus and mandate. Heitsenrether explains, 'AI is 100% a business issue. We have to begin with an understanding of our business objectives; where we want to grow, where we want to be more efficient, what markets we want to enter, what products we want to create; and then how, where, or if AI can be an enabler for this.' She continues, 'We always think about our AI and data agenda in the context of the business's broader strategic objectives.' Heitsenrether adds, 'AI in search of a problem is a bad strategy.' Establishing an AI and Data organizational culture remains an obstacle for most leading organizations--just 32% of organizations say that they had achieved this outcome and only 37% report having created an AI and Data driven organization–people and cultural issues being identified as the greatest impediments to successful business adoption. Leadership begins from the top of the organization at JPMorgan. Heitsenrether explains, 'We have a leadership team that has long recognized the importance of AI. The tone from the top really does matter in setting the expectations for the organization. When you do that, and you're clear, it permeates the organization.' Heitsenrether continues, 'I firmly believe that the advances we are seeing through AI are going to fundamentally change the way that we do business, and the scale and the scope at which we can do things. The fact that we created this corporate function for data and AI reflects how transformative we think this will be.' Business transformation requires cultural adaptation and changes to behavior and processes within any large and complex organization. Heitsenrether explains, 'You really need to think about how transformation it going to be introduced; what else changes in the organization; how do you roll out new capabilities to our customers.' She adds, 'I think there is a very deep culture within JPMorgan of continuous improvement. We're always looking at who the disruptors are and how we can do things better. Technology is a great enabler.' Adoption of new technology and new business processes represents a challenge for any organization. Heitsenrether explains, 'We've been very intentional about putting GenAI into the hands of all our employees. We are doing this through an internal platform we developed called LLM Suite. I think this has been a great cultural shift for the organization.' Heitsenrether continues, 'We didn't set a mandate that our people have to use the new AI platform, but they quickly discovered the benefits. Now, over half of our employees use the platform in their daily work.' She continues, 'We're still in the early stages. It has been both bottom-up ideas combined with a top-down perspective focused on the biggest areas of opportunity for our business and for our customers.' AI is on a path toward long-term adoption across JPMorgan. Heitsenrether comments, 'We are now understanding what's possible with AI technology.' She adds, 'As is often the case with new technologies, there's the 20% that are the early adopters, who become your ambassadors. They start learning how to use the new technology–in this case AI--and encourage and show others how to use it as well.' 'There's a natural curiosity', explains Heitsenrether. 'Everyone will try the new AI technology, but the challenge is making it applicable to what our employees do in their daily jobs.' She continues, 'Having AI ambassadors within the business help colleagues understand how to use AI to be more effective creates a next wave of adoption.' Delivering business value from data and AI investments remains a challenge for most organizations. Just 24% of companies surveyed reported having implemented AI in production at scale, and only 18% claimed to be delivering a high degree of measurable business value from their data and AI investments. Heitsenrether comments, 'We've already seen business value in a number of domains, including fraud management, pricing and risk management.' She continues, 'Generative AI opens new domains that weren't available before. An example is in our software engineering life cycle. We're also looking at using AI in customer coverage in our call centers.' Heitsenrether adds, 'We are using AI to help our agents better understand the customers intent, to provide customer answers quickly, and deliver a great service outcome.' She concludes, 'The best way to retain customers is to keep them happy' says Heitsenrether. Great data is the foundation for great AI. Heitsenrether explains, 'What's really shifting is the lens with which business leaders look at data. They recognize that data is a strategic asset for their business.' She elaborates, 'One of my biggest learnings in the last two years has been the importance of data. You have to have a good data foundation. Having access to clean, understandable data is critical to our success.' Heitsenrether notes, 'We run a very large financial services firm that's highly governed, so the fact that the business runs smoothly each and every day speaks to the quality of our data.' She concludes, 'The next wave in having good data will be making sure that our data is well understood and connected across the organization.' AI technology represents the culmination of seventy years of development, dating back to the origins of the term artificial intelligence–45% of companies have been employing forms of AI technology for at least a half decade, and in some cases for over a quarter century. Looking toward an AI future, Heitsenrether comments, 'I don't think that the expectations of AI are unfounded or overestimated. If anything, we may be underestimating what's going to be possible.' She continues, 'What we are realizing is that it's not just about the technology. It's about the enterprise's ability to adapt the technology, not just within financial services, but even more broadly across industries.' Heitsenrether continues, 'You have to know where you're heading. Our most senior leaders will be able to start thinking about remapping their businesses. That's just getting underway in earnest at this point. This will require a lot of thought and is an iterative process that starts with thinking about what's possible.' Reflecting on her tenure with the firm and her present mission, Heitsenrether notes, 'I've run a lot of big businesses at JPMorgan, with significant technology and operations components, so I understand how to execute through complexity. I also think having been responsible for running businesses helps me be a better partner to our business leaders who have many demands on their time.' She continues, 'At JPM, we're committed to being a leader in AI technology and that means we need everyone across the firm thinking about how they can maximize the use and value of AI. You need to be constantly learning. That message reaches people at all levels of the organization and becomes understood in the overall success of the firm and of your business.' In summation, Heitsenrether comments, 'It's been an honor to be in the CDAO seat at JPMorgan. The role is so strategically important to the future of the firm. It's an exciting moment, at a pivotal time. We are creating the culture, creating the guardrails, creating the policies, and creating the enablers.' 'AI will be transformational in ways that we haven't even thought of. It's not just about JPMorgan. We are doing something that is beneficial for our clients and our community, and we are doing it in the right way' continues Heitsenrether. She concludes, 'Our ethos is to Make Dreams Possible for everyone, everywhere, every day–AI technology can help with this by driving better outcomes for our customers. It's enormously exciting and beneficial.'
Miami Herald
18 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Why tariffs may not be a big deal after all
Key Points: Tariffs initially caused market anxiety and a 19% S&P 500 decline from February to April.A feared spike in inflation from tariffs hasn't materialized yet. Companies have largely managed tariffs by negotiating lower prices, absorbing costs, or modest price increases, keeping overall inflation mostly in have rebounded as the tariff impact proved less severe than expected. Better-than-forecast outcomes and ongoing trade deals have lifted the S&P 500 to an all-time estimated tariff duties are not being collected because of enforcement complexity. This, along with over 50% of imports not being subject to tariffs, has lessened the drag on the economy. It wasn't that long ago that President Donald's Trump's tariff strategy kicked up a hornet's next of debate. Those favoring tariffs, which are taxes on imports, argue that they are the best way to kick-start U.S. manufacturing. Opponents believe tariffs are inflationary, sparking higher prices that can derail the U.S. economy, risking recession. The truth may wind up landing somewhere in the middle. Tariffs can slow an economy, particularly if they increase quickly and significantly, like what President Trump originally proposed this spring. However, billionaire fund manager Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments, points out that in the U.S., tariffs' impact may be more muted than expected. Image source:Legendary fund manager Paul Tudor Jones equated the originally proposed tariffs as the biggest new tax since the 1960s. In February, President Trump enacted 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He also implemented a 25% tariff on autos, a 10% tariff on all imports, and after much wrangling, a 30% tariff on China. Related: Billionaire fund manager explains why so many missed the stock market rally The end result of those tariffs is that the average effective tariff rate currently is 20.2%, the highest since 1911, according to the Yale Budget Lab. JPMorgan Chase calculates the effective tariff rate was 2.3% in 2024, and is about 17% currently. Either way, a big bump in import taxes led many to worry that U.S. companies would be forced to pass along higher-than-normal price increases, causing inflation to spike and household and business spending to fall. That concern contributed heavily to the S&P 500's 19% tumble from all-time highs in February to the low in April. While risk remains that companies will see revenue growth and earnings slow because of the impact of tariffs, so far, inflation remains manageable. The Consumer Price Index for June showed headline inflation of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, but below the 3% inflation rate registered in January. It appears as of now that companies are successfully navigating the tariff hit, mostly through a combination of negotiating lower prices with exporters, absorbing some of the costs, and more modest price increases. More Tariffs: Luxury carmakers have a more aggressive tariff battle planTop 6 cars, SUVs, & trucks that may avoid tariffs, Consumer Reports saysAmazon's quiet pricing twist on tariffs stuns shoppersLevi's shares plan to beat tariffs, keep holiday prices down Of course, some industries - such as autos, appliances, apparel, and furniture - are hit harder by tariffs. Still, overall, inflation has yet to reach levels suggesting a major retrenchment in spending that could further weaken the economy. The better-than-hoped outcome, coupled with optimism that ongoing trade deals, such as the one recently reached with Japan, which lowered tariffs to 15% from 25%, would result in lower tariffs than initially feared, has helped the stock market recover all of its losses since February. The S&P 500 closed on July 26 at an all-time high. Ken Fisher founded Fisher Investments, a money manager with $332 billion in assets under management, in 1979. Over his 45-plus year career, Fisher has seen a lot of good and bad economies and markets. Related: Another automaker is forced to shift strategy due to tariffs He's not a fan of tariffs, saying previously that they historically hurt the country imposing them more than the country they've been imposed upon. Still, he also points out that the widespread threat associated with a tariff-driven economic recession may not be as big as some make it out to be. "Tariff terror abounds, but 'tariffied' investors miss what markets don't," wrote Fisher on X. "While universal tariffs are foolish and a real economic negative, their real world bite is often muted." Fisher had previously forecast that enforcing tariffs would be incredibly difficult, and that we'd see significant difficulty in collecting them. He also opined that high tariffs would likely cause the black-market import business to soar. He appears to be right. "Through June, roughly 39% of estimated tariffs duties were actually collected - far less than many feared - owing to tariff enforcement's complexity," said Fisher. "Markets move on the gap between reality and expectations, and it's always bullish when reality settles in better than overly dour expectations." Fisher also pointed out that over 50% of imports aren't subject to tariffs. This isn't to say that the U.S. economy would be better off without tariffs in terms of growth, but only that the drag on the economy may not be as bad as originally feared. According to Yale Budget Lab, current tariffs are reducing U.S. GDP this year by about 0.8%. In short, the stock market priced in a worst-case outcome from tariffs, providing plenty of room for positive surprises. Anything less than terrible can be viewed as a win that may lift analysts expectations for revenue and profit growth - the lifeblood of stock market returns. Related: Legendary fund manager has blunt message on 'Big Beautiful Bill' The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
