Deadly Texas floods: What were the warnings?
Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River.
At least 51 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people - including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County - still missing.
As rescue teams continue to search for the missing, local and federal officials have come under fire over their flood preparations and about why those along the river weren't warned of the risks sooner.
What happened?
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Homes were washed out and vehicles swept away by the downpour - equivalent to months' worth of rain - while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit.
The death toll stands at:
• At least 43 people, including 15 children and 28 adults, in Kerr County,
• One person in Kendall County,
• At least four people in Travis County,
• At least two in Burnet County,
• And one person in the city of San Angelo.
1:20
What flood warnings were there?
Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies - a rare alert notifying of imminent danger - at 4.23am local time.
In a statement, AccuWeather said that "these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety".
It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.
However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain.
"It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw," he said.
3:35
Were they enough?
Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions.
Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend's house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: "What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now."
Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky's US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival.
"I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside," he said, "so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway".
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
He said in a statement: "People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast."
Separately, the NWS's union told NBC News the agency's offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, "giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met".
What have officials said?
Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said: "We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming."
"We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States," he said, adding: "We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever."
Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, "the public reeled at the cost".
At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that "everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict" before saying "we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification" from the NWS.
She said a "moderate" flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade the system.
Will forecasting get better?
While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump 's administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - the parent organisation of the NWS.
A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.
Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were "devastating".
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Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Search teams scour Texas flood zone for dozens missing; 78 confirmed dead
KERRVILLE, Texas, July 7 (Reuters) - Search teams plodded through mud-laden riverbanks and flew aircraft over the flood-stricken landscape of central Texas for a fourth day on Monday, looking for dozens of people still missing from a disaster that has claimed at least 78 lives. The bulk of the death toll from Friday's flash floods was concentrated in the riverfront Hill Country Texas town of Kerrville, accounting for 68 of the dead, including 28 children, according to Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha. The Guadalupe River, transformed by predawn torrential downpours into a raging, killer torrent in less than hour, runs directly through Kerrville. The loss of life there included an unspecified number of fatalities at the Camp Mystic summer camp, a nearly century-old Christian girls retreat on the banks of the Guadalupe where authorities reported two dozen children unaccounted for in the immediate aftermath of the flooding on Friday. On Sunday, Leitha said search teams were still looking for 10 girls and one camp counselor, but he did not specify the fate of others initially counted as missing. As of late Sunday afternoon, state officials said 10 other flood-related fatalities were confirmed across four neighboring south-central Texas counties, and that 41 other people were still listed as unaccounted for in the disaster beyond Kerr County. Freeman Martin, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety, predicted the death toll would rise further as floodwaters receded and the search gained momentum. Authorities also warned that continued rainfall - even if lighter than Friday's deluge - could unleash additional flash floods because the landscape was so saturated. State emergency management officials had warned on Thursday, ahead of the July Fourth holiday, that parts of central Texas faced the possibility of heavy showers and flash floods based on National Weather Service Forecasts. But twice as much rain as was predicted ended up falling over two branches of the Guadalupe just upstream of the fork where they converge, sending all of that water racing into the single river channel where it slices through Kerrville, according to City Manager Dalton Rice. Rice and other public officials, including Governor Greg Abbott, vowed that the circumstances of the flooding, and the adequacy for weather forecasts and warning systems would be scrutinized once the immediate situation was brought under control. In the meantime, search and rescue operations were continuing around the clock, with hundreds of emergency personnel on the ground contending with a myriad of challenges. "It's hot, there's mud, they're moving debris, there's snakes," Martin said during a news briefing on Sunday. Thomas Suelzar, adjutant general of the Texas Military Department, said airborne search assets included eight helicopters and a remotely piloted MQ-9 Reaper aircraft equipped with advanced sensors for surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Officials said on Saturday that more than 850 people had been rescued, some clinging to trees, after a sudden storm dumped up to 15 inches (38 cm) of rain across the region, about 85 miles (140 km) northwest of San Antonio. In addition to the 68 lives lost in Kerr County, three died in Burnet County, one in Tom Green County, five in Travis County and one in Williamson County, according to Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management. The Federal Emergency Management Agency was activated on Sunday and was deploying resources to Texas after President Donald Trump issued a major disaster declaration, the Department of Homeland Security said. U.S. Coast Guard helicopters and planes were aiding search and rescue efforts. Trump, who said on Sunday he would visit the disaster scene, probably this coming Friday, has previously outlined plans to scale back the federal government's role in responding to natural disasters, leaving states to shoulder more of the burden themselves. Some experts questioned whether cuts to the federal workforce by the Trump administration, including to the agency that oversees the National Weather Service, led to a failure by officials to accurately predict the severity of the floods and issue appropriate warnings ahead of the storm. Trump's administration has overseen thousands of job cuts from the National Weather Service's parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, leaving many weather offices understaffed, former NOAA director Rick Spinrad said. Ahead of Friday's floods, the Weather Service office near San Antonio, which oversees warnings issued in Kerr County, had one key vacancy - a warning coordination meteorologist, who is responsible for working with emergency managers and the public to ensure people know what to do when a disaster strikes. The person who served in that role for decades was among hundreds of Weather Service employees who accepted early retirement offers and left the agency at the end of April, media reported. Trump pushed back when asked on Sunday if federal government cuts hobbled the disaster response or left key job vacancies at the Weather Service under Trump's oversight. "That water situation, that all is, and that was really the Biden setup," he said referencing his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden. "But I wouldn't blame Biden for it, either. I would just say this is 100-year catastrophe."
The Guardian
2 hours ago
- The Guardian
Weather tracker: supercharged storms hit Texas's ‘Flash Flood Alley'
Texas was hit by catastrophic flash floods on Friday after powerful thunderstorms unleashed torrential rainfall across the region. Kerr County, in the south-central Hill Country, received more than 300mm of rain in just a few hours. As of Sunday evening, at least 68 people had been confirmed dead, and 28 girls were missing after flood waters tore through a summer camp. In just two hours, the Guadalupe River surged by more than 6 metres (20ft), sweeping away vehicles and inundating homes. The storms were supercharged by moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Barry, which had struck Mexico earlier in the weekand drawn saturated air from the Gulf, and instability in the atmosphere facilitated by a low-level jet stream. Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of these events, as warmer air can hold more moisture. The Hill Country's rugged topography, marked by steep hills, canyons, and valleys, amplifies the risk and impact of flash flooding, and it is often referred to as 'Flash Flood Alley'. On top of that, the area's limestone and granite terrain exacerbates runoff, because water struggles to soak into the ground. Meanwhile, what began as a tropical depression near the north-west of the Philippines rapidly intensified into Typhoon Danas over the weekend and struck Taiwan on Sunday morning with winds reaching 85mph and torrential rain. Almost 3,000 people had to evacuate their homes. Originally expected to head towards Thailand, the storm altered its course over the weekend, veering northwards across the Taiwan Strait. On Sunday, more than 150mm of rainfall was recorded in parts of Taiwan, causing landslides and flash flooding. Further heavy rainfall hit the region on Monday morning. Typhoon Danas is projected to continue its path north-east across the South China Sea, hitting south-east China by midweek. Yellow weather warnings have been issued in Fujian and southern Zhejiang provinces, where wind speeds may reach up to 90mph and more than 130mm of rainfall is expected by Wednesday. However, the exact trajectory of the storm remains uncertain and may shift in the coming days. Although Thailand was spared a direct hit, the typhoon has amplified the region's monsoon, intensifying the south-westerly winds and drawing in more saturated air from the surrounding ocean. Consequently, northern Thailand has seen an increased humidity and widespread heavy rainfall, which is expected to reach over 90mm in 24 hours in places, bringing the risk of flash flooding and landslides to 33 provinces, particularly near the Mekong River.
The Guardian
2 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘A river with a temper' returns to calm after wreaking deadly devastation in Texas
The Guadalupe River had returned to calm by Saturday evening and was beginning to give up its grim secrets, as 70 people – many of them children – were recovered from what just a day earlier was a terrifying flash flood that had turned land into water, taken homes and retreated to leave miles of terrible devastation along its banks. At Camp Mystic, on a bend in the river flanked by cliffs that sped the torrent as if through a chicane, 700 young girls had five days earlier joined for a month-long summer camp of fun and spiritual growth, the evening brought a strange calm to Texas Hill country. There were the flashlights of emergency vehicles; search helicopters clattered overhead; and wrecked cars marked as searched and clear with paint. A drenched mattress could be seen in the high branches of trees. Homes were obliterated, now stuffed with debris, as rescue workers continued to pull the camp girls and adults from the muddy waters. Crystal Lampard was at her home up a road 150ft from the river early Friday when the first flood alerts started coming through on her phone. 'My husband and I woke up about 2.45 to a loud boom that was probably one of the transformers,' she said. It was raining, but there was nothing to suggest an apocalyptic scene developing below. 'This type of thing – you don't get a warning,' she said. 'We knew the rain was coming but not what we got. 'That water comes down those hills [and] this is where it goes. So if it's pouring 11 inches up at the headwaters, it's got to come here,' she said. 'But there was no indication that's what it would be.' Yet surveying the cypress trees combed flat by flood waters along the Guadalupe's banks, bent canoes and other detritus, Lampard, 51, said the houses that used to be on there – and the people in them – were gone. 'It doesn't matter if you knew them or not – those poor babies,' Lampard said of the children killed by the flood. 'My heart breaks. This river is beautiful but she does get ugly. 'She's a beautiful river with a temper. It's going to be a while before everything is cleaned up, and a while before everybody is found – if they're found.' Her friend, Alisha Sore, 26, said her family had planned to go to the river on Friday for an Independence Day cookout with hotdogs and fireworks. Sore, too, said she gets weather alerts and received a flood alert early Friday morning – but 'there was nothing letting us know it was 20ft tall and we're under water.' On Thursday, a former classmate, Julian Ryan, gave Sore's dad a hug at the bar. He had just become a father for a second time. But hours later, as waters rose furiously, Ryan punched his hand through a window to help his family escape their home, severed an artery, and bled to death. Now, the flood waters were heading to areas downriver. 'They're getting our flood on top of where they're sitting,' Sore said. An initial flood watch for the area was issued at 1.18pm on Thursday predicting rain amounts of between 5 and 7in (12.7 to 17.8 cm). The weather messaging included automated alerts delivered to mobile phones to people in threatened areas. Those warnings grew increasingly ominous in Friday's early hours, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas. And as questions are asked about whether meterologists missed the signs of the storm's force, and if alert systems were enough, many in the area grappled with flashbacks to another deadly flood nearly four decades earlier. Some recalled one such emergency a few miles downriver in Comfort in July 1987, when a caravan of buses attempted to escape from a church camp through a low water crossing after an overnight storm. When the buses stalled, the teenagers attempted to form a human chain – and a wall of water washed them away. Ten were killed. 'You can't do anything in 45 minutes,' Lampard said, referring to the window of time she estimated having to flee after it became evident the flood threat was much more serious than initially estimated. 'If we'd try to leave out of here, we would have drove right into it.' Amanda Chaney, who was on the road checking on neighbors, said several of her house-cleaning clients had lost their homes. 'I had my phone on, and I kept getting alerts,' she said. 'But the rain didn't seem much heavier than usual.' Chaney said she noted how emergency responders had 'spread out in different locations instead of planting them all in one'. She interpreted that as a sign of the uncertainty surrounding where the storm which triggered the flood would cause the most damage. At an emergency rescue staging post outside Hunt, a few miles below Camp Mystic and one of the hardest hit hamlets, workers said they had recovered over 15 bodies. By Saturday afternoon, emergency crews from all over the state had converged on the valley. 'Honestly, there could have maybe been more warnings,' said Justin Barnatt, who had driven with his crew 250 miles in three hours from Odessa in west Texas. 'But the river rose 29ft in maybe 45 minutes, and it was three or four o'clock in the morning.' Gunner Alexander, 14, who was resting in the back of an off-road vehicle, said: 'We're not used to seeing our town like this. It's sad – people you know whose house is gone.' He said he knew two girls at Camp Mystic. One had for sure gotten on an evacuation bus, he said. Alexander said the storm's strength was unexpected. 'The rain gauges on our apps showed 3 to 4in,' he remarked. 'It came all of a sudden. It was really unexpected.' Despite the scale of the deadly devastation, he said everyone he knew was trying to find a way to help out fellow community members. Up at Camp Mystic, as night began to fall, tender scenes began to reveal themselves. A man who gave his name as Bobby appeared from the river, drenched and out of breath. Officials had pleaded with the public to leave the search-and-rescue work left to be done to professionals. Yet Bobby drove up two hours from San Antonio to assist. 'I don't work for anyone except for Bobby,' he said. 'I do this completely voluntarily. It's the right thing to do. There's never enough rescue workers. The more rapid the response, the more chance there is of survivors.' A mile downstream, 55-year-old Dan Murray said he had flown down from San Francisco to search for his best friend, his best friend's wife and their son – whose holiday home had been swept clean off its foundations. Neither the home nor its occupants have been found. But their daughter, who they had been coming to collect from Camp Mystic, had survived. 'They haven't found them yet so I have hope – but coming and seeing this utter devastation is rocking my belief that everything is going to be OK,' he said. 'It's just devastating.'
