Japan election: How events unfolded

Nikkei Asia

6 days ago

TOKYO -- The Japanese public delivered a harsh verdict on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling collation in Sunday's upper house election, denying it a majority in the chamber.
With the ruling coalition having lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in a election last autumn, the outcome puts Ishiba in a tough spot as he tries to continue tariff negotiations with the U.S.
As such issues as inflation, taxes and immigration dominated the campaign, the center-right Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, which ran on a populist Japanese-First platform, made notable gains.
Here are some of our recent articles on this key election:
- Japan's ruling coalition set to suffer big loss in upper house poll
- What the upper house election means for Japan: 5 things to know
- Sanseito brings far-right populism to Japan
- Immigration becomes election issue in Japan amid tough economy
- Japan's rice price shock exposes PM Ishiba to voter anger as election looms
Here's the latest: (Japan time)
Monday, July 21
6:04 a.m. The parties had won the following number of seats as of the time of this post, based on Nikkei estimates.
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 39
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP): 21
Japan Innovation Party: 7
Komeito: 8
Democratic Party for the People (DPFP): 17
Japanese Communist Party: 3
Reiwa: 3
Sanseito: 13
Conservative Party of Japan: 2
3:50 a.m. Renho, who resigned from her upper house seat in 2024 to run for Tokyo governor, was elected through proportional representation as a CDP member.
2:35 a.m. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda told a press conference that his party will resubmit a bill to abolish a provisional gasoline tax rate in the fall, looking to help lower gas prices at the pumps. The bill was submitted to the previous Diet session but did not pass due to a lack of support from the ruling coalition in the upper house.
1:30 a.m. The parties had won the following number of seats as of the time of this post, based on Nikkei estimates.
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 35
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP): 21
Japan Innovation Party: 6
Komeito: 7
Democratic Party for the People (DPFP): 16
Japanese Communist Party: 3
Reiwa: 2
Sanseito: 11
Conservative Party of Japan: 1
1:20 a.m. The DPFP is set to win at least 16 seats, bringing its total in the chamber to 21 or more. This would enable the party to submit bills relating to national budgets on its own.
12:20 a.m. The LDP failed to win a single seat in the Osaka district, where four seats were up for election, marking the first time the ruling party failed to capture a seat there in 27 years. The Japan Innovation Party won two seats while Komeito and Sanseito each won a seat.
12:15 a.m. Sanseito is on track to have at least 11 seats in the chamber, empowering the right-wing party to submit bills on its own excluding those relating to Japan's budgets.
12:08 a.m. Around 15% of independent voters backed DPFP, more than the LDP or CDP. Overall, a little over 80% of independents voted for an opposition party, according to exit surveys from Kyodo News.
Sunday, July 20
11:54 p.m. The parties had won the following number of seats, as of the time of this post, according to NHK.
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 32
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP): 18
Japan Innovation Party: 6
Komeito: 5
Democratic Party for the People (DPFP): 15
Japanese Communist Party: 3
Reiwa: 2
Sanseito: 11
Conservative Party of Japan: 1
With 23 seats yet to be confirmed, the coalition (LDP/Komeito) have 37 -- 13 short of the 50 needed to retain a majority.
11:49 p.m. According to TV Asahi, Taro Aso, a former Japanese prime minister and LDP heavyweight, has told people around him that he will not accept Ishiba carrying on given the ruling coalition's losses and that he is prepared to force him into resignation.
11:23 p.m. Tobias Harris, a biographer of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and founder of the Japan Foresight consultancy, also spoke with Nikkei Asia.
"There is a question of will the U.S. want to negotiate with someone who is essentially a lame duck?... I think within the LDP there is some division as to whether it is worth letting Ishiba continue and getting it done or try again with a fresh start."
11:06 p.m. According to Nikkei estimates, the national voter turnout was around around 57.91%, up about 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous upper house election in 2022.
Sunday's vote took place in the middle of a three-day weekend in Japan, the first time that a national election, excluding by-elections, has been held in such conditions under the current constitution.The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will announce the final voter turnout rate on Monday morning. Since 1989, the turnout for upper house elections has remained below 60%.
11:05 p.m. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, according to Kyodo News, said the "Japanese people have handed a vote of no confidence" toward the Ishiba administration and that if Ishiba intends to remain as PM, he must "clearly explain why."
The main opposition party is expected to increase its number of seats slightly but Noda noted that "there are many battleground districts" but refrained from commenting further.
10:49 p.m. Ishiba, when asked if he intends to stay as prime minister and the ruling party leader, said "that's right," during a TV TOKYO broadcast. The PM also said "We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the the U.S. ..we must never ruin these negotiations," during a joint press interview at the party's headquarters, according to Reuters.
10:25 p.m. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, speaking to media on NHK, acknowledged that his ruling bloc is facing a tough race. The LDP-leader had set a goal of reaching a simple majority together with its junior coalition partner Komeito. However, Ishiba avoided saying whether he would take responsibility and resign if that goal is not achieved.
"Votes are still being counted and we must see what the results are," he said. On why the LDP has struggled to gain seats, Ishiba stated that the party has sought long-term goals such as realizing wage increases that exceed inflation while also trying to react swiftly and help struggling households through cash handouts.
Many of the opposition camps have launched promises to cut the consumption tax, but Ishiba argued that "medical and nursing care will become even more important in the future and our fiscal situation will be under pressure. Long-term interest rates rising further and our fiscal conditions becoming even tighter is not ideal."
He added: "At present, we are the party with the largest number of seats. We must respond to the nationwide issues we have advocated for during the campaign, such as wage increases that exceed inflation and our critical national security environment. We have responsibilities to fulfill for the nation."
9:57 p.m. Rintaro Nishimura of The Asia Group spoke with Nikkei Asia about the results so far. Some quotes here:
"It's a clear rebuke from the voters of Ishiba and his government, and it will be very challenging going forward to see whether the ruling parties can muster a majority, not through a coalition, maybe, but through policy by policy coordination with parties."
"There's definitely a sense that these established parties like the LDP, and also even the DPJ, are not really doing what the people want them to do, what they want to see from the parties."
"A lot of the younger voters seem to like the Sanseito platform. Maybe because their social media game is better, but I think the large part was that there's a sense that the economy, especially for the younger generations, is not really doing well for them. I think they see that foreign tourists and also immigrants, maybe are having a better life than them."
9:52 p.m. Sohei Kamiya, the leader of the right-wing Sanseito, told an online election results program that "if there are issues that are important to the national interest and must be passed at all costs, we would not hesitate considering cooperating with the LDP or other parties on a topic or bill basis. But we have no intention of nestling up to obtain official posts in the administration."
9:42 p.m. Akira Nagatsuma of the CDP said: "There will be no grand coalition, whatsoever. Changing the structure of national politics is a very high priority, so a grand coalition is not possible."
9:33 p.m. According to NHK, it could be the first time since its formation in 1955 that an LDP-led government loses its majority in both the upper and lower houses. The ruling bloc could secure fewer than 46 seats -- a new low since the formation of the coalition between the LDP and Komeito.
9:30 p.m. As of 7:30 p.m., the national turnout figure stood at 29.93%, down 0.65 percentage point from the previous upper house election.
9:22 p.m. Ryohei Iwatani, the secretary-general of Japan Innovation Party, which has a strong foothold around Osaka, said at a press conference: "We continued to appeal for realistic reforms, including lowering social insurance premiums and that gradually gained the understanding of voters throughout the campaign period."
9:14 p.m. Here are some photos from the evening so far:
9:08 p.m. Itsunori Onodera, the LDP's policy chief, spoke to NHK: "The election results clearly show that our policies did not go down well with the voters. I have to acknowledge this as the party's policy chief."
When he was asked about whether the party will go for tax cuts or cash handouts as an economic relief measure, Onodera said, "The consumption tax is an important revenue source for the country's social security programs. We need to discuss with the opposition what it intends to do with these programs."
During the campaign, the LDP promised cash handouts as a relief measure for inflation, while opposition parties called for consumption tax cuts, either permanent or temporary.
8:59 p.m. Kiyomi Tsujimoto of the CDP told a radio station that "I think criticism against the LDP was very strong."
NHK projects that the CDP, the main opposition party, will likely increase its seats in the chamber.
Meanwhile, the DPFP, which held four seats before the election, is also projected to boost its presence in the chamber. Secretary-general Kazuya Shimba said he does not think there will be a grand coalition between his party and the ruling bloc, claiming that the parties have been unable to reach an agreement on the issue of raising the ceiling on the so-called "1.03 million yen wall," where individuals limit their part-time income to avoid certain taxes and social security burdens.
8:45 p.m. Right-wing Sanseito appears to have shaken up this election, and could win more than 20 seats in the chamber. It had just two before today's election.
Sanseito candidate Saya, who was elected in the Tokyo constituency, talked on TV about why she thought her party had been successful.
"I think us maintaining the 'Japanese First' policy and advocating for the gradual abolition of the consumption tax resonated with voters who are struggling as wage increases stagnate and the cost of living rises."
Saya's win comes despite a viral video of her speaking to Russian news agency Sputnik.
8:35 p.m. Hiroshi Moriyama, the LDP's secretary-general, avoided giving concrete comments on TV, saying that "Vote counts are still on going and I would like to refrain from commenting on the nature of responsibility at this time."
8:26 p.m. The ruling coalition is projected to gain between 32~51 seats, according to NHK. Remember they need 50 to keep their majority.
The range of seats won for each party is:
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 27~41
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP): 18~30
Japan Innovation Party: 6~9
Komeito: 5~12
Democratic Party For the People (DPFP): 14~21
Japanese Communist Party: 3~5
Reiwa: 2~4
Sanseito: 10~22
Conservative Party of Japan: 1~3
8 p.m. Voting ends. The ruling bloc is at risk of losing their upper house majority, national broadcaster NHK projected immediately after polls closed.
7:37 p.m. The latest data on voter turnout is out. As of 6 p.m., the national figure stood at 26.65%, down 0.71 percentage points from the 2022 upper house election.
7:13 p.m. Some errors have been made at polling stations, according to national broadcaster NHK. In Tokyo's Ota ward, 25 voters were handed the wrong ballot sheets. In Saitama Prefecture's Kasukabe city, there was a similar error involving ballot sheets for constituencies and proportional representation being mixed up. The affected votes could become invalid.
7:00 p.m. Just an hour to go now.
6:54 p.m. Japan's lead tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa on Sunday told reporters that the election results will not affect talks with the U.S., according to Kyodo News. The upper house vote comes amid Tokyo's continued efforts to reach a trade deal with Washington, which has slapped a 25% "reciprocal" tariff that goes into effect on Aug. 1.
6:30 p.m. Here's a few photos from today:
6:15 p.m. The national voter turnout as of 4 p.m. stood at 22.42%, 0.57 percentage point lower than the previous upper house election three years ago, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. For Tokyo, it was 22.87% -- 2.6 percentage points down.
According to government data, an estimated 26.18 million people participated in early voting, a record high and over 6.5 million more than in the previous upper house poll.
6 p.m. Just two hours now until voting ends. Exit polls and projections by major broadcasters will start coming in at 8 p.m., and will be updated frequently during the course of the evening as votes are counted.