SCOOP: McGuire plans to stay until 2026

Politico

29-05-2025

Presented by California Environmental Voters
THE BUZZ: TAKE YOUR TIME — California Senate insiders are jonesing to know when the chamber might select its next leader. But Mike McGuire is in no rush to share his plans, even as he's raked in more than $221,000 this year to run for another office.
McGuire, the Senate president pro tem who's termed out of the Legislature next year, is signaling he doesn't expect to announce a transition plan until 2026, an adviser familiar with his thinking revealed exclusively to Playbook.
'The pro tem has made it clear to his colleagues and caucus that he intends to lead the Senate into next year,' the adviser said. 'Doing this job, and doing it well, is his sole focus. There will be time in 2026 for him to decide what's next, and at that point he'll work with his caucus — just as he always does — to determine next steps.'
McGuire may not be ready to plot his exit, but the contest to lead the Senate is taking shape around him. And his ideal timeline stands in direct conflict with some senators eager to solidify the chamber's top ranks.
Rumblings about jockeying for votes intensified in recent weeks — and the likelihood of a leadership fight coming to a head by late summer is now an open question, according to Capitol insiders familiar with dynamics of the chamber, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.
Four senators have been the focus of internal discussions: Lena Gonzalez, Angelique Ashby, Monique Limón and Steve Padilla. None has officially declared their candidacy, though their aspirations are well known within the caucus.
The unease about McGuire's plans comes as he's raked in contributions via his campaign committee for state insurance commissioner. McGuire hasn't said if that's the job he wants; he's also a potential contender for longtime Rep. Mike Thompson's seat in the North Bay Area, whenever he retires.
Kevin de León, a former pro tem who served nearly four years before running for the U.S. Senate in 2018, said he cautions McGuire about trying to hold onto legislative power while running for a higher office.
'In the words of Mick Jagger — you can't always get what you want,' de León told Playbook in a text. 'Sometimes you just need to pick a damn lane to get what you want.'
The people familiar with Senate dynamics said they generally agree there will be no push to force the question before the Legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom work out a deal to resolve the state's $12 billion budget deficit. Lawmakers must pass a budget by June 15 — or go without pay.
The real challenge for McGuire is what comes after the budget and lawmakers' summer recess. A fellow Democratic senator needs 16 votes — a majority of the 30 Senate Democrats — to force an internal caucus vote. By publicizing a timeline, McGuire could have a harder time saving face (and buying more time) should his colleagues move to replace him sooner.
And if McGuire resists a quicker timeline, he would effectively be asking senators to not repeat his own leadership play from two years ago, when he gathered the votes needed to broker a transition with former President Pro Tem Toni Atkins earlier than she had expected.
Steve Maviglio, a veteran Democratic strategist, said a key frustration for some inside the Capitol seems to be that McGuire's plans could force the caucus to deal with a leadership shakeup in an election year. Democrats in the state Senate lost a seat to Republicans last year, and the pro tem is charged with leading caucus fundraising.
'You can't do that if you're raising money yourself,' said Maviglio, an Ashby ally. 'The sooner he makes his decision, the better it will be for the Senate because the Assembly already has a longtime leader.'
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WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: DOWN THE BALLOT — Former state Sen. Steven Bradford is exiting the lieutenant governor's contest to run for state insurance commissioner, moving into an emptier field but vying for one of the most vexing jobs in California politics.
Bradford, a Gardena native who served on his home city council and in the Legislature for 14 years, had long been rumored to be considering the move down the ballot. But his launch officially thins the lieutenant governor's field, where more Democrats could still join Treasurer Fiona Ma and former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs — particularly if former Vice President Kamala Harris gets in the governor's race and sends other Democrats looking for a landing spot down the ballot.
Bradford, a Democrat, could be pitted against McGuire if — and that's a sizable 'if' — the Senate leader uses his open committee to run for the insurance job.
The office, namely term-limited Commissioner Ricardo Lara, has drawn increased scrutiny as wildfires and other climate disasters put intense strain on the insurance market. Bradford's campaign pointed to the Los Angeles fires, the exodus of insurers and the difficulty of securing affordable policies in California as motivators for him entering the race.
'It's critical that California establishes a stable marketplace that can attract and maintain a business environment so that insurance companies can compete here,' Bradford said in a statement. 'At the same time, we need to ensure that consumers are not priced out, that they get the coverage they need, that it's fair, equitable and adequately covers their needs.'
Bradford was a member of California's first-in-the-nation reparations task force and chaired the state legislative Black Caucus. He also chaired several committees as a legislator, including Senate Energy Utilities and Communications as well as Assembly Utilities and Commerce before term limits stopped him from running for the Senate again in 2024.
SAN DIEGO
CORY IN THE HOUSE — Before speaking at the California Democratic Party Convention in Anaheim on Saturday, Sen. Cory Booker is stopping in San Diego today to stump for board of supervisors candidate Paloma Aguirre — who is running to restore Democratic control to the panel.
The officials plan to stop at the Tijuana River, through which sewage seeps from Mexico into San Diego County, posing a concern to residents more widespread than the odor.
'The health and safety of these communities have been ignored for far too long,' Booker said in a statement. 'I'm here to see it firsthand, to stand with local leaders like Mayor Aguirre, and to push for the federal action this crisis demands.'
Aguirre, now mayor of Imperial Beach, is running against Chula Vista's Republican Mayor John McCann in a July 1 runoff election for a vacant seat after neither candidate won outright during an April special election. The board of supervisors is deadlocked on partisan issues including immigration, with two Democrats and two Republicans.
CLIMATE AND ENERGY
THE MUSK EFFECT — Elon Musk already played a lead role in killing California's electric vehicle mandate, and now he's giving state officials headaches as he leaves the Trump administration. Read last night's California Climate to see how Musk has turned Democrats against California's EV policies.
TOP TALKERS
CLASS DISMISSED — The San Francisco Unified School District will back off of the 'Grading for Equity' initiative, a plan to have about 10 percent of the district's teachers align grades closer to learning outcomes rather than factors like attendance and participation, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
'It's clear there are a lot of questions, concerns, and misinformation with this proposal,' said Superintendent Maria Su. 'We want to make sure any changes benefit our students. I have decided not to pursue this strategy for next year to ensure we have time to meaningfully engage the community.'
SOMETHING'S IN THE AIR — Scientists from University of California San Diego have discovered that pollutants from the raw sewage in the Tijuana River are polluting the air near the U.S.-Mexico border, the Los Angeles Times reports.
They found, for example, that sea spray aerosols contain illicit drugs and drug byproducts that are found in human urine.
AROUND THE STATE
— Rep. David Valadao's constituents protested his vote for a budget megabill that includes Medicaid cuts outside several of his district offices this week. (The Fresno Bee)
— San Diego will analyze how the city can remedy funding disparities between recreation centers in southern and northern parts of the city. (The San Diego Union Tribune)
— Morro Bay's City Council voted to move forward with an environmental review of a controversial roundabout, potentially giving the project a second life. (The San Luis Obispo Tribune)
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED: WEDDING BELLS — Public affairs pro and former Newsom comms aide Alex Stack married political fundraiser Naomi Jefferson in Edinburgh over the weekend. The weekend kicked off Friday with a welcome party that included Scottish country dance at the royal Edinburgh castle and culminated in a festive affair in a 14th century crypt surrounded by friends and family (and nearly all men in kilts). Other guests include Newsom alums Priscilla Cheng, Tonya Lamont, Joey Freeman, Nathan Click and Sepi Esfahlani, LA Mayor Karen Bass comms head Zach Seidl, digital consultant Alf LaMont and SEIU USWW communications aide Sebastian Silva.
SPOTTED: CAPITOL MEOW-MENT — Assemblymember Alex Lee and his staff love cats so much that they recently turned 'Donut Fridays' at the Capitol Swing Space into a feline fest. Last Friday was Team Lee's turn to host the weekly gathering and provide breakfast bites. Naturally, they created a 'Cat Cafe' and invited staffers to submit their pets in a 'Cutest Cat Photo Competition.' Mr. Richard, whose parent is Eddie Kirby in Assemblymember Patrick Ahrens' office, took home first place honors.
PEOPLE MOVES — Judith Gutierrez is now the American Heart Association's state government relations director. She was most recently communications director for Assemblymember Jesse Gabriel.
Zane Barnes, San Jose's chief intergovernmental relations officer, is departing for a new position as the vice president for government relations at Austin Capital Metro in Texas.
BIRTHDAYS — Beth Miller at Miller Public Affairs Group … TV producer Mitchell Hurwitz … consultant Todd Flournoy … Dayna Geldwert at Meta … Nkiruka Catherine Ohaegbu at Adaptive Strategies Consulting …
BELATED B-DAY WISHES — Chris Fadeff at Galvanize Climate Solutions
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