'Spanish plume' heat blast on the way but with nasty sting in tail
The burst of heat, if it happens, is likely to be short-lived, spanning only Friday and Saturday, June 13-14. But it may trigger some fairly dramatic thunderstorms as this warmer air rises into the atmosphere.
The GFS weather model shows temperatures peaking at 30C in the south-east with much of the rest of England seeing temperatures of 24C-28C. Forecasts shows some of this heat ebbing into Wales with the mercury ranging from 23C-25C. Coastal areas in west Wales are currently modelled to remain a few degrees cooler.
At the same time, forecasts indicate the atmosphere is set to get more explosive above the UK on these two days. CAPE projections (Convective Available Potential Energy) show soaring figures over much of Wales and England.
If this scenario materialises, it could be the cue for severe weather warnings. Already a number of weather models show heavy rain for early Saturday morning (June 14), though locations range from northerm England to Wales and the west Midlands.
Much can change between now and then, and the Met Office will be analysing multiple models to arrive at a consensus. But already it's bracing for a spell hot and potentially stormy weather at warm air floods up from across the Continent.
Drawn up by a 'classic Jet trough', it's set to bring warmer conditions from Wednesday before peaking on Friday and Saturday. Join the North Wales Live WhatsApp community group where you can get the latest stories delivered straight to your phone
On X (Twitter), the forecaster said this afternoon (Sunday, June 8): 'A change in wind direction by mid-week will likely bring some very warm and humid weather our way. This may come with the risk of some heavy and thundery showers though.'
It's an assessment that chimes with Netweather forecaster Ian Simpson. He said: 'A very hot air mass will develop over Spain and Portugal over the next few days, and then towards the back end of next week, this hot air mass will push northwards into the British Isles, especially affecting the south and east of Britain.
"The heat will not last for long in these parts, being delivered by a 'Spanish plume' type of southerly followed by a change to cooler west to south-westerlies, but it could end up quite intense for this early in the season.
'It is not yet certain how much of this hot air mass will reach the British Isles, but temperatures in the high 20s Celsius are already looking highly probable, and it is possible that there could be a day or two when temperatures get into the low 30s Celsius, particularly in the south-east.
Also of note is the potential for thunderstorms. Thundery activity was relatively rare over much of the country during the very dry and sunny spring of 2025, but next Thursday and Friday have potential to bring widespread thundery activity, as low pressure pushes in from the North Atlantic and collides with the hot air mass coming up from Spain.'
By Sunday, the 'Spanish plume' is expected to have dissipated, returning Britain to more seasonal temperatures. Heading into the following week, the Met Office expects things to dry up a little.
In its medium-range UK outlook for Thursday to Saturday, June 12-21, the forecaster said: 'The start of this period is likely to be quite unsettled but also widely warm or very warm, perhaps locally hot in parts of the south and east.
'Some showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect most parts but there will also be some sunshine. Over the weekend and into the start of the following week, most parts will become drier. However, there may be another brief spell of rain with a risk of some thunderstorms, before high pressure more firmly builds in from the west.
"The rest of the following week looks like being mainly dry with variable cloud and some sunshine and often warm or very warm. The far north may be largely cloudy with a threat of some more rain at times though.' Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
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