
Russia's ‘Afghan Quad' overtures to India hit a China, Pakistan stumbling block
However, Pakistan's involvement is 'an automatic red flag' for India, according to Kabir Taneja, deputy director and fellow at the Observer Research Foundation's Strategic Studies Programme in New Delhi, dismissed the idea of Indian participation, saying Pakistan's involvement was 'an automatic red flag'.
He noted Islamabad's historical support for the Taliban, which has long targeted both Indian and US interests in Afghanistan.
'Islamabad would need to do institutional house cleaning first before such a Quad can be effective beyond just a conference,' Taneja said. A Quad divided The 'Afghan Quad' most recently convened on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September, holding its third meeting to discuss Afghanistan.
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AllAfrica
4 hours ago
- AllAfrica
10 billion euros nowhere near enough to rebuild Ukraine
Clearly angered by the intensification of Russia's air campaign against Ukraine, Donald Trump has pivoted from the suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine to promising its resumption. Russia's strikes on major cities killed more civilians in June than have died in any single previous month, according to UN figures. Over the past two weeks, the US president has made several disparaging comments about his relationship with Vladimir Putin, including on July 13 that the Russian president 'talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening.' Not only will the US resume delivery of long-promised Patriot air defense missiles, Trump is now also reported to be considering a whole new plan to arm Ukraine, including with offensive capabilities. And he has talked about imposing new sanctions on Putin's regime. This is the background against which the eighth Ukraine Recovery Conference took place in Rome on July 10 and 11. The event, attended by many Western leaders and senior business executives, was an important reminder that while the war against Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield, peace will only be won as the result of rebuilding Ukraine's economy and society. Ending the war anytime soon and on terms favourable to Kyiv will require an enormous effort by Ukrainians and their European allies. But the country's recovery afterwards will be no less challenging. According to the World Bank's latest assessment, at the end of 2024 Ukraine's recovery needs over the next decade stood at US$524 billion. And with every month the war continues, these needs are increasing. Ukraine's three hardest-hit sectors are housing, transport and energy infrastructure, which between them account for around 60% of all damage. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a relatively positive assessment of Ukraine's overall economic situation at the end of June, forecasting growth of between 2% and 3% for 2025 – likely to grow to over 4% in 2026 and 2027. But the IMF also cautioned that this trajectory – and the country's macroeconomic stability more generally – will remain heavily dependent on external support. Taking into account a new €2.3 billion package from the EU, consisting of €1.8 billion of loan guarantees and €580 million of grants, the cumulative pledge of over €10 billion (£8.7 billion) made by countries attending the Ukraine recovery conference is both encouraging and sobering. It is encouraging in the sense that Ukraine's international partners remain committed to the country's social and economic needs, not merely its ability to resist Russia on the battlefield. But it is also sobering that even these eye-watering sums of public money are still only a fraction of Ukraine's needs. Even if the EU manages to mobilise its overall target of €40 billion for Ukraine's recovery, by attracting additional contributions from other donors and the private sector, this would be less than 8% of Ukraine's projected recovery needs as of the end of 2024. As the war continues and more of the (diminishing) public funding is directed towards defence expenditure by Kyiv's western partners, this gap is likely to grow. Money is not the only challenge for Ukraine recovery efforts. Rebuilding the country is not simply about undoing the physical damage. The social impact of Russia's aggression is hard to overstate. Ukraine has been deeply traumatised as a society since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Generally reliable Ukrainian casualty counts – some 12,000 civilians and 43,000 troops killed since February 2022 – are still likely to underestimate the true number of people who have died as a direct consequence of the Russian aggression. And each of these will have left behind family members struggling to cope with their loss. In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of war veterans. Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were nearly half a million veterans from the 'frozen' conflict that followed Russia's annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine. By the end of 2024, this number had more than doubled to around 1 million. Most of them have complex social, economic, medical and psychological needs that will have to be considered as part of a society-wide recovery effort. According to data from the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), there are also some 7 million refugees from Ukraine and 3.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs). This is equivalent to one quarter of the country's population. The financial needs of UNHCR's operations in Ukraine are estimated at $800 million in 2025, of which only 27% was funded as of the end of April. Once the fighting in Ukraine ends, refugees are likely to return in greater numbers. Their return will provide a boost to the country's economic growth by strengthening its labour force and bringing with them skills and, potentially, investment. But like many IDPs and veterans, they may not be able to return to their places of origin, either because these are not inhabitable or remain under Russian occupation. Some returnees are likely to be viewed with suspicion or resentment by those Ukrainians who stayed behind and fought. Tensions with Ukrainians who survived the Russian occupation in areas that Kyiv may recover in a peace deal are also likely, given Ukraine's harsh anti-collaboration laws. As a consequence, reintegration – in the sense of rebuilding and sustaining the country's social cohesion – will be a massive challenge, requiring as much, if not more, of Ukraine's partners' attention and financial support as physical reconstruction and the transition from a war to a peace-time economy. Given the mismatch between what is needed and what has been provided for Ukraine's recovery, one may well be skeptical about the value of the annual Ukraine recovery conferences. But, to the credit of their organizers and attendees, they recognize that the foundations for post-war recovery need to be built before the war ends. The non-military challenges of war and peace must not fall by the wayside amid an exclusive focus on battlefield dynamics. Stefan Wolff is professor of international security, University of Birmingham This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


AllAfrica
4 hours ago
- AllAfrica
What Trump's pique with Putin means for Ukraine war
At face value, Donald Trump's announcement about his plans on Russia and Ukraine looks like a major policy change. Speaking from the Oval Office on July 14, where he had been meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the US president said he would send 'top-of-the-line-weapons' to help Kyiv and – unless a ceasefire deal is agreed within a 50-day time limit – the US would impose secondary sanctions on any countries dealing with Russia. But while this represents a significant departure from Trump's previous approach, it's more of a step back towards the policy approach of his predecessor, Joe Biden, than the U-turn that some commentators are claiming. For months, Russia has stepped up its bombardment of Ukraine, buoyed by the fact that neither the US Congress nor the White House has authorized any new military aid to Kyiv. Moscow would have been aware of this lack of US action and its missile and drone attacks against Ukraine have aimed to run down the stocks of air defense missiles supplied by Biden while paying lip service to the idea of peace negotiations. For Trump, the penny appears finally to have dropped as to what was happening. His frustration and disappointment in Putin is what has finally led to him calling this out. According to Trump, Putin 'fooled a lot of people – Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden – he didn't fool me. At a certain point talk doesn't talk, it's got to be action.' The decision to send new supplies of defensive – and potentially even longer-range offensive missiles – to Ukraine (even if the Europeans pay for them) is an important signal to Russia. But so too is the threat of tariffs of 100% on countries, such as India and China, that sustain the Russian economy by buying its oil and gas at knockdown prices. The US Senate, led by Lindsay Graham, the influential Republican senator for South Carolina, has been itching to pass these secondary sanctions for months. Now that the Trump administration appears to have adopted this plan it is a significant policy instrument to pile the pressure on Russia. The change in Trump's approach may also mean that the US$8 billion of frozen Russian assets in the US (and $223 billion in Europe) could be released to aid Ukraine, which would provide a ready means to pay for the US arms transfers. What has not changed, however, is the goal of Trump's policy towards the war in Ukraine. While the Biden administration called out the illegality of Putin's unprovoked aggression and called for the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty, Trump is merely calling for a ceasefire. Trump may say he is 'disappointed' with Putin, but he has not labelled him as the aggressor. In fact, at one point, he was blaming Ukraine for the invasion. And, significantly, he has not demanded that Russia give up the 20% of Ukraine that it currently illegally occupies. As of July 14, Russian troops occupy about 20% of Ukraine's sovereign territory. Institute for the Study of War The US president is also silent on what the US would commit to in terms of security and stability for Ukraine after the fighting stops. This is a much bigger question than Ukraine's NATO membership. America's European allies in NATO regard some sort of stability force on Ukrainian territory as necessary to deter any future Russian aggression. Whether or not US troops would be involved (and all the signs are that they would not), some sort of US security 'back-stop' or guarantee is still seen in Europe as key to its success – as would be US logistical and intelligence support for its operation. Another aspect of the change in Trump's policy is the long lead time that Russia has been given to come to the table. A lot of Ukrainian civilians are likely to die during this period if the intense bombardment continues. On the battlefield, 50 days would give the Russians an extended window during a renewed summer offensive to make further territorial gains inside the occupied provinces. So Trump's proposals have to be viewed through the prism of his propensity to set deadlines that are then pushed back multiple times – as with the on-again, off-again tariffs, which have given Trump the nickname Taco ('Trump always chickens out') on Wall Street. Russian senator, Konstantin Kosachev, was certainly taking this view when he told the BBC after Trump's announcement that, 'if this is all Trump had to say about Ukraine today, then so far it's been much ado about nothing'. This sentiment was shared by the Russian stock market, which rose 2.7% in the aftermath of Trump's announcement. Analysts had expected much worse, so the long delay in the prospect of anything actually happening was clearly seen as a long way off and potentially subject to change or cancellation. Trump is seen by many as both inconsistent in his threats and unpredictable as to where policy will eventually settle. The fact that Trump told BBC Washington correspondent Gary O'Donoghue that while he was 'disappointed' with Putin, he was 'not done with him' – and his clear reluctance to act quickly and decisively in sanctioning Russia – should be seen as an important counterpart to the apparent policy shift. Like so many things with the 47th US president, it's important not to react to the media appearances or the headlines they provoke without also paying attention to the policy actions of his administration. David Hastings Dunn is professor of international politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


RTHK
a day ago
- RTHK
China, Russia should bolster mutual support: Xi
China, Russia should bolster mutual support: Xi President Xi Jinping meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Beijing. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry via Reuters President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday China and Russia should strengthen mutual support in his meeting with visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi said "China and Russia should bolster mutual support within multilateral frameworks, safeguard their development and security interests, unite the Global South countries, and push the international order toward a more just and equitable direction". The president added that Beijing and Moscow should support each other in steering the development direction of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and injecting new momentum into the alliance. Xi also urged the SCO to do more to achieve global stability in a meeting with the group's foreign ministers gathered in Beijing for talks. The meeting paved the way for an SCO summit in Tianjin later this year. Xi said China is committed to making the organisation stronger and to safeguarding regional security and stability. On the meeting between Xi and Lavrov, Russia's foreign ministry said in an earlier statement that "a number of issues of bilateral political contacts at the highest and high levels were discussed". They included preparations for President Vladimir Putin's visit to China to join the SCO summit and celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. (Xinhua/AFP)