Online push by terror group ISIS for followers in SE Asia to take up arms raises alarm: Experts

Straits Times

4 days ago

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South-east Asia has grappled with both transnational and homegrown threats in recent decades.
SINGAPORE - The threat of an online caliphate led by terror group ISIS is rising in South-east Asia, Singapore's latest terrorism threat report has warned, and regional experts say the absence of attacks does not mean an absence of danger.
Even as the Islamic State's physical strongholds in the Middle East have crumbled, its ideological reach has migrated online, where propaganda is being repackaged in local languages and weaponised to exploit regional grievances.
Terrorism analysts told The Straits Times that the authorities must not underestimate the speed at which these narratives are spreading, or the risk that radicalised individuals could act faster than states can respond.
The Singapore Terrorism Threat Assessment Report 2025 , released by the Internal Security Department (ISD) on July 29, flagged a surge in hyperlocal propaganda efforts by ISIS supporters in the region.
One example cited was how Indonesian militants marked the anniversary of the Sep 11 terror attacks in the United States by circulating calls for jihad that tied the Gaza conflict to local struggles, including grievances involving Chinese Indonesians and national development projects. Jihad is an Arabic word that means struggle but which has been misinterpreted by extremists to mean a holy war.
A plot to attack the Singapore Exchange was also highlighted in the report. Indonesian militant Yudi Lukito Kurniawan, a former Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) member linked to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was tasked in 2014 to lead the attack, which was seen as an indirect strike against the US via a regional ally.
Yudi tried to enter Singapore in 2015 to further the plan but was denied entry due to his terror-related past. He was arrested in Sulawesi in August 2024.
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These cases show how extremist narratives are being tweaked to resonate more deeply within South-east Asian societies.
Such shifts are not just rhetorical, but reflect a growing effort by ISIS-linked actors to root their ideology in local socio-political tensions, say experts.
'The shift to hyperlocal messaging increases the radicalising potential of ISIS across South-east Asia, particularly since ISIS lost its territorial control in Syria,' said S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) associate research fellow Adlini Ilma Ghaisany Sjah.
The group lost its last territorial stronghold in March 2019, but experts say it remains highly active, moving operations online and encouraging supporters to mount attacks independently.
'The barrier for individuals to join ISIS has also decreased significantly from hijrah (moving) to Syria to waging jihad wherever they are, with individuals pledging allegiance to ISIS through online means,' Ms Adlini said.
ISIS has increasingly promoted its propaganda online, which can become more dangerous when linked to local flashpoints. One example cited in ISD's report is a January 2025 post that identified Pantai Indah Kapuk in north-western Jakarta, a neighbourhood with a large Chinese Indonesian population, as a potential target.
The post called for attacks against the community and sought to justify robbery and violence on religious grounds.
While not every online incitement results in violence, the risk of provocation is real.
Mr Muh Taufiqurrohman, a senior researcher at the Centre for Radicalism and Deradicalisation Studies in Jakarta, revealed that ISIS supporters in Central Java had begun preparing for attacks on Chinese Indonesians before the plot was disrupted by Indonesia's Densus 88 counter-terrorism unit.
Densus 88 has a strong track record, but the scale of online threats means counter-terrorism efforts must be broadened, he added. 'Densus 88 needs to work with other law enforcement agencies, especially when the threat comes from Islamist or anarchist groups whose numbers far exceed pro-ISIS militants,' he said.
South-east Asia has grappled with both transnational and homegrown threats in recent decades, from the Bali bombings in the early 2000s to the rise of JI, and more recently the 2017 Marawi siege in the southern Philippines.
Successful attacks have sharply declined in the past five years, largely due to sustained counter-terrorism efforts across Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
But while the physical threat has diminished, the digital battlefield remains active.
ISIS propaganda in the region has become increasingly decentralised, produced not by the group's central command but by Indonesian media outfits like Al-Najiyah Media Center and At-Tamkin, said RSIS Associate Research Fellow Alif Satria.
These unofficial pro-ISIS outfits, operating largely through encrypted messaging apps and social media, translate and repurpose extremist materials into local languages.
Such outlets, noted Mr Alif, are pushing translated content that ties global jihadi narratives to domestic grievances like local corruption or land disputes. While ISIS had been translating content since 2014, what is more notable now is the rise of unofficial media channels trying to keep the movement alive in the region.
He said: 'Although the region has seen fewer attacks compared with a decade ago, pro-IS groups remain highly active online and are persistently working to maintain a sense of community in the digital space –– especially as real-world IS activities in the region have diminished.'
The rise of unofficial pro-IS media channels has made it harder to distinguish between official and unofficial sources of extremist content, complicating online detection.
Ms Nurrisha Ismail Fakirra, a senior analyst at RSIS, said extremists are also leveraging AI and coded language to slip past content moderation tools.
Her colleague Benjamin Mok, also a senior analyst at RSIS, said that governments and tech companies have taken steps to combat online radicalisation.
He noted how initiatives like the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism - a non-profit founded in 2017 by major tech platforms such as Meta, Google, Microsoft and X - have improved cross-border cooperation by taking steps like enabling rapid identification and removing extremist content across platforms.
At the Asean level, the region has enhanced information sharing and developed joint counter-terrorism frameworks, such as the Asean Plan of Action to Prevent and Counter the Rise of Radicalisation and Violent Extremism (2018). Asean has also supported capacity building to disrupt extremist propaganda networks.
But the momentum may be flagging, said Mr Mok, warning that economic pressures have led to content moderation teams being scaled back and long-term threats like online radicalisation risk being deprioritised.
'The threat hasn't disappeared, it's just constantly evolving. Any complacency from governments or tech companies will be quickly exploited by bad actors,' he said.