Healthy inflation data should help ease mortgage pain
Quarterly numbers released on Wednesday are expected to show core inflation has dropped within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range, paving the way for a rate cut at its May 20 meeting.
Economists from Australia's big four banks have all forecasted the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of annual trimmed mean inflation will come in at either 2.8 or 2.9 per cent - within its target range of two to three per cent.
The annual rate leapt out of the target range in early 2022, triggering 12 rate rises in 13 months.
The central bank cut its cash rate to 4.10 per cent in February and Westpac Group chief economist Luci Ellis said another cut in May was guaranteed.
"You can lock in a (0.25 per cent) cut in May, even if the Q1 inflation data is a shade disappointing," she said.
"For the time being, we continue to expect a total of three further cuts (0.75 per cent in total), including the cut in May, with August and November pencilled in for the other two cuts."
Each 25 basis point cut would shave about $90 off monthly repayments on a typical $600,000 mortgage.
While some wondered if the global economic uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs might trigger a larger than usual cut - as high as 0.5 per cent - Dr Ellis said that was not plausible.
She labelled commentary suggesting the double-cut "breathless" and said Australia was less affected by the tariffs than other economies.
"If the board were to do something other than cut by 0.25 per cent in May, it might consider a 0.35 per cent move to 3.75 per cent," she said.
"To be clear, we regard this as a very outside chance."
NAB, however, disagreed and has prepared for a 0.5 per cent rate cut, also predicting annual trimmed mean inflation would be recorded at 2.8 per cent.
"We think quarterly CPI will largely take a back seat to rising global uncertainty," its weekly markets report read.
"Our base case is that the RBA will deliver a 50bp cut in May to take policy more quickly towards neutral."
Retail sales figures are due out on Friday, while US policy developments will continue to be of interest as Trump celebrates his first 100 days in office at a rally in Michigan on Tuesday.
Investors on Wall Street have meanwhile parsed a spate of earnings looking for signs of easing tensions in the US-China trade dispute.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices were bolstered by gains in the "magnificent seven" group of artificial intelligence-related megacaps on Friday, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was more muted.
The latter rose 20.10 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 40,113.50, the S&P gained 40.44 points, or 0.74 per cent, to 5,525.21 and the Nasdaq gained 216.90 points, or 1.26 per cent, to 17,382.94.
In a shortened trade week, Australian share futures lifted only 2.0 points, or 0.02 per cent, to 7,786.
The S&P/ASX200 rose 47.7 points, or 0.60 per cent on Thursday, before the Anzac Day public holiday, to 7,968.2, as the broader All Ordinaries gained 49.9 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 8,175.1.
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