What does Red Wings' path to internal improvement really look like?

New York Times

3 days ago

While there's still technically more than two months before the Red Wings take the ice for training camp, the majority of Detroit's offseason work is done.
Perhaps there could still be one more move — be it big or small — between now and mid-September, but with the NHL getting ready to go into post-July 1 hibernation, we have a pretty good idea what the Red Wings' nightly lineup could look like. Which is to say: a lot like last year.
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There were additions, to be sure. Detroit added a starting goalie in John Gibson, plus a pair of big-bodied forwards in Mason Appleton and James van Riemsdyk. It also added a depth defender in Jacob Bernard-Docker. All, individually, look like solid to good acquisitions. But in terms of a big shakeup, that never really materialized for general manager Steve Yzerman.
Of course, Yzerman was prepared for that possibility. After the 2025 NHL Draft, as the focus shifted to the looming frenzy around free agency (and trades to accommodate it), Detroit's seventh-year GM was clear in acknowledging that — while the team wanted to make a move — it was possible the step forward the team so badly needs would have to come another way.
'If we can't do anything, maybe we get better simply by: Marco (Kasper) takes another step, Simon (Edvinsson) takes another step, Albert (Johansson) takes another step,' Yzerman said. 'Maybe one of these young guys that played in GR last year, whoever it is, takes another step and goes on our team. … I'm going to keep trying. We will keep trying. But the worst thing I can do is make a move out of desperation or panic and move our young players out here (in a deal) that doesn't make us any better.'
Granted, those comments came before Detroit signed van Riemsdyk, Bernard-Docker and Appleton, so the Red Wings did something. But while those players should help the Red Wings to varying degrees, it's safe to say none qualifies as the kind of needle-mover the Red Wings needed in the top six of their forward corps, or top four on defense.
And absent that, or a later-summer trade, Detroit appears to be left with that alternate route laid out by its GM.
The question is just what that growth could actually look like.
Let's start with the first two players Yzerman mentioned, Kasper and Edvinsson — both former top-10 picks who were functionally rookies last season (Edvinsson didn't technically qualify because he had played six or more games in two preceding seasons, but had only 25 total games to his name).
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Kasper, a young center who played nearly the entire season at age 20, was the breakout story of Detroit's second half. He moved into a full-time role in the top six in January, and never looked back — first playing on the left wing with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and then moving back into the middle after an injury to Andrew Copp, centering Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
In both roles, he thrived. From January 10 through the end of the season, Kasper scored 17 goals and had 30 points in 42 games. That's outstanding output for any rookie (and indeed, he was first in goals and fifth in points among rookies in that span), but particularly for a young center who also displayed a mature two-way game and plays with an edge.
If he can be that over a full season — whether at 2C or even at first-line wing at times — that's already a huge deal, let alone if he were to take any kind of step.
Unsurprisingly, Dom Luszczyszyn's model already has Kasper projected to deliver top-six value next season. But considering how much the offense, in particular, ticked up in the second half, it's interesting to consider if he could even outpace the already promising projections the model is giving. If he can trend toward first-line impact sooner than expected, that would be one clear way Detroit's outlook could improve.
That kind of improvement is not a given, though. While Kasper's 13.1 shooting percentage over the full 2024-25 season looks fairly sustainable, his 18.3 percent marker from Jan. 10 on is notably high. That speaks to the challenge in predicting what his next season could look like, and fittingly, the top comparables via Luszczyszyn's model go in each direction.
Certainly, Detroit will be hoping to avoid worst-case outcomes such as Alexander Burmistrov or Nolan Patrick (who battled significant injuries). Meanwhile, the Red Wings would, of course, be over the moon to get an outcome like Jamie Benn. Even Boone Jenner has had a nice career, albeit with some recent injury woes, and was a 30-goal scorer as early as 22.
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The most likely outcome (as always) is probably somewhere in the middle of that range, but based on Kasper's mental makeup, it's hard not to like his odds of continuing his upward trajectory. He's not someone who will take anything for granted or get complacent.
But it's important to remember how hard it truly is to consistently deliver strong results in the NHL at a young age, and even Larkin — the Red Wings' most important player of the last decade — fell victim to a sophomore slump once upon a time.
Still, if Kasper can play more toward the upper-end of his recent comparables, that stands out as perhaps the most significant way for Detroit to make a meaningful improvement next year.
The other top young player Yzerman keyed in on that post-draft statement was Edvinsson, who has a higher-floor set of comparables.
Luszczyszyn's model already has Edvinsson comfortably as a top-pair caliber defenseman, and the names who have seen similar results at this age have gone on to some excellent careers as impactful defenders.
Josh Morrissey is the most tantalizing name, as a current Norris Trophy candidate, but it's easy to forget just how good Seth Jones has proven to be in the right environment (he was a total force on Florida's Stanley Cup run), and Jacob Trouba, Alex Edler, Esa Lindell and even K'Andre Miller have played massive roles on teams that went on deep runs.
The way Edvinsson skates at his size gives him an excellent ability to defend in transition, and he has the puck skills and poise to make good passes to start the break as well. He can at times get overeager, but with more reps and experience, it stands to reason the risk in his game could come down as well — setting him up for star potential if things break right.
His role last year as a top-four defender all year (spending some of that time on the top pair with Moritz Seider) means Detroit is already getting plenty of that impact from Edvinsson, which has to be factored in. What is interesting, though, is how much offense Edvinsson was able to generate despite minimal power-play time last season. None of his 31 points came on the power play.
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If the smooth-skating 6-foot-6 defender gets a little more action on PP2 this season, that'd be one way for him to add a bit more offense, and his natural puck-moving at five-on-five provides plenty of reason to think his even-strength numbers can continue to grow as well.
The other name Yzerman singled out was Johansson, who didn't have the same kind of statistical success as Kasper or Edvinsson, but nonetheless really won over the coaching staff with how he played in the second half.
The underlying numbers weren't as kind — with a 45 percent expected goals share and 43 percent actual goals share, according to Evolving Hockey — but some of that may be a product of often playing a second-pair role as a true rookie, and a smaller-bodied rookie at that. That said, he certainly had his moments, including making a transition stop on Connor McDavid in Edmonton.
Not to make this about the Red Wings but remember the time Johansson schooled McDavid? pic.twitter.com/4pkNwRLBcQ
— Delaney Rimer (@delaneydrw) February 16, 2025
On one hand, Johansson's workload likely isn't getting any lighter, considering Detroit didn't make any big additions on defense. But perhaps with the experience under his belt — and a summer to try and add weight — Johansson can come back more ready to handle second-pair minutes for a full season. He certainly has the smarts and skating to do so as a steady complement to Edvinsson.
Yzerman also alluded to a young player coming up from Grand Rapids and helping the Red Wings, and there are two names that really come to mind.
One is Carter Mazur, who was called up last season only to quickly sustain an upper-body injury and be done for the season. Injuries have followed Mazur as a pro, but he's the kind of gritty forward with offensive touch who could both help build a tougher-to-play against identity and score more goals in the bottom six.
The other, and perhaps the higher-ceiling candidate, is Nate Danielson — the 2023 ninth pick who had very similar numbers to Kasper in their respective AHL rookie seasons. Whether Danielson makes the team out of camp or not, his blend of size, skating, smarts and skill gives him the potential to play in the top six and complement Detroit's top players.
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Red Wings assistant director of player development Dan Cleary praised Danielson's finish to last season, particularly the Griffins' final game (a double-overtime playoff loss to Texas), and Detroit will challenge him to pick up where he left off.
There are other names to know for the season. Forward Amadeus Lombardi is one, after a great second season in Grand Rapids. Both Shai Buium and William Wallinder could bring more size on the back end. And of course, recent first-rounders Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and Axel Sandin Pellikka have big potential once they adjust to North American ice.
But Danielson, because of how truly well-rounded he is, has the most potential to move the needle for Detroit in 2025-26 among the prospects, if he can find his top level consistently.
The other element to all of this is that first- and second-year players aren't the only players capable of improving. Anyone can.
And while certainly Detroit would love to see further steps from everyone on the roster, there are two more players right in the development sweet spot for whom one or two more steps could make a major difference.
Seider and Raymond are already two of Detroit's most important, impactful players. Seider is the team leader in ice time, and Raymond is its leading point-producer two years running.
But when you look at some of the names Luszczyszyn's model found as comparables to this point in their young careers, there's also clear potential for more. Drew Doughty really stands on Seider's list as a path to taking his already excellent play into true star territory.
For Raymond, he may not have Matthew Tkachuk's same edge, but the Panthers star also grew into multiple 100-point seasons, as has Patrick Kane. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has reached that level in a season, too, while Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel have both topped 90. And while Raymond has already been a difference-maker for Detroit, would anyone really be that surprised if he built on his 80-point campaign last season and reached that even more exclusive territory?
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None of this, mind you, is a given. It's a lot of 'ifs,' and odds are, not all of them will come to fruition. It's possible that none will.
But if the right ones do, that's what it would take for Detroit's hope for internal improvement to actually turn into a long-awaited playoff berth.
(Photo of Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper and Lucas Raymond: Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)