Who is going to be the next pope? We asked AI chatbots and this is who they predict will be elected
Who is going to be the next pope? We asked AI chatbots and this is who they predict will be elected
The College of Cardinals is preparing to lock down in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel to vote for the next pope.
While the papal election is held in complete secrecy, artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots appear to hold their own opinions on who the likely new pontiff will be.
On May 7, around 133 cardinal-electors are expected to begin participating in the vote. Many of them were appointed by the late Pope Francis himself, which OpenAI's ChatGPT believes might "influence the election's direction," because many of them are new.
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The cardinals will consider who will be the best candidate, either for continuity or change, global representation, tackling the decline of spiritualism in Europe, and who can act as a bridge across the conservative-progressive divide in the Church.
We've decided to ask OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Google's Gemini 1.5, xAI's Grok-2, and DeepSeek for their insights on where the election is likely headed.
It should be noted that chatbots are prone to "hallucinating" - producing inaccurate responses - as they learn to spot statistical patterns from the data they've been fed, most of which comes from publicly available information posted on the Internet.
The frontrunner: Pietro Parolin
There was no white smoke of consensus about the next papal choice among the large language models (LLMs), but it mostly came down to a two-way race for frontrunner between Italy's Pietro Parolin and the Philippines' Luis Antonio Tagle.
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Before answering, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 prefaced that the conclave is known to be unpredictable and could easily pick a candidate that is not listed.
Gemini's 1.5 and Grok-2 described Italy's Parolin as "frequently cited as the frontrunner," because he is a prominent figure in the Catholic Church, serving as the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin arrives in St Peter's Basilica in the Vatican.
- AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino
In that role, Parolin managed the Vatican's relations with other countries and oversaw the administration of the Holy See. Effectively, Grok-2 called him the "deputy pope".
Parolin has served as a diplomat in various roles, including postings in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. As an ambassador, Gemini 1.5 said he's been involved in very high-level diplomatic situations like nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
Parolin is also considered an expert on the Middle East, according to the Vatican, and is attributed with reopening a dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians.
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Yet, even though Parolin is seen as a "continuity candidate" for Pope Francis' agenda, Grok-2 notes that he's been criticised for a more conservative stance on issues like same-sex marriage.
Gemini described him as the "most senior cardinal bishop under the age of 80," and as such, is expected to preside over the 2025 conclave.
Grok-2 and Gemini give Parolin the highest odds of winning, at 31 per cent and up to 30 per cent respectively.
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The 'strong contender': Luis Tagle
ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 also identified Cardinal Tagle from the Philippines as a "strong contender".
The so-called "Asian Francis" as ChatGPT identifies him, Tagle is seen as a progressive, especially on inclusivity for the LGBTQ+ community and divorced Catholics, making him well-placed to continue Pope Francis's legacy.
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This "advocacy for social justice" and his international profile make him "a prominent figure in the Church," especially among the cardinals who are looking for more reform, ChatGPT continued.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle attends a mass in mourning for Pope Francis.
- AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino
"As a Filipino, Tagle would represent the rapidly growing Church in Asia and the Global South," ChatGPT added.
According to Gemini, Tagle has a "strong following" among progressives in the Church who want to continue Pope Francis's legacy of prioritising the poor and marginalised.
Grok-2 credits his experience as the former Archbishop of Manila as an example of his leadership skills.
ChatGPT put Tagle's chances of winning at around 35 per cent, but it could be lower if the cardinals resist following Pope Francis's path or decide to vote in a European pope "for stability," which would mean voting in a compromise candidate.
Grok-2 put Tagle's chances at 22 per cent, citing betting platform Polymarket as its source.
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The 'compromise votes': Jean-Marc Aveline and Pierbattista Pizzaballa
The LLMs had very different opinions on who the conclave could likely back as a "compromise vote" if the cardinals can't come to a decision.
France's Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, is identified as a compromise candidate by both Grok-2 and ChatGPT. Within the Church, Aveline is known for his work on "interfaith dialogue," particularly with Islam, according to Grok-2.
Aveline is also at an advantage because of his "low-profile" in Vatican politics and "lack of Italian fluency," Grok-2 said, that could position him as a compromise for "those wanting a fresh, pastoral leader without strong factional ties".
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa arrives in procession for a mass at the Vatican.
- AP Photo/Andrew Medichini
ChatGPT had a very different list of compromise candidates than Grok and Gemini; it listed Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy, Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, Cristobal Lopez Romero from Spain, and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Pizzaballa - ChatGPT's top compromise candidate - is a standout for the chatbot because he was recently elevated to cardinal status by Pope Francis in 2023, which "signals trust" from the previous pope.
The current Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could be seen as "ideologically balanced and global in outlook," as well as someone who appeals to reformers but doesn't alienate conservatives.
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The outliers: Mario Grech and Matteo Zuppi
The AIs also mentioned figures whom they deemed to be less likely successors to Pope Francis, including a name that has been floated as one of the top contenders.
Gemini threw its support behind Malta's Cardinal Mario Grech, the Secretary of the Synod of Bishops, with vague phrases like "he has shown ability to create balance within the Church".
Grok-2 supports Italy's Matteo Zuppi, seen by many as a leading candidate and another compromise vote because he could be seen as a neutral choice for cardinals who are looking for a non-polarising figure to lead the reformers.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi welcomes parishioners after celebrating mass in Moscow in 2023.
- AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File
Hungary's Cardinal Peter Erdo is also considered a compromise candidate by Grok-2, but ChatGPT and Gemini identify him as the leading candidate among conservatives.
Gemini also mentioned that Parolin would be a compromise candidate as well as the frontrunner. When asked to clarify, Gemini said that if the conclave becomes divided, he could still emerge as a compromise choice because of his "qualities".
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Refusals to answer
DeepSeek and Anthropic's Claude 3.7 Sonnet both said that Pope Francis is still in the papal office. Both chatbots have knowledge cutoffs of July 2024 and October 2024, respectively.
When a Euronews Next journalist corrected DeepSeek and said that the Pope died in April 2025, DeepSeek said it couldn't fact-check in real time and assumed that we were introducing a "hypothetical scenario" or that there was a misunderstanding.
DeepSeek walked Euronews Next through its thought process in real time as it looked at the history of papal votes, discussed factors, and any changes in the College of Cardinals before giving a hypothetical answer.
It said that the next pope depends on the focus of the conclave. If that were to represent the Church's growth in the Global South, it suggested Tagle along with Dieudonné Nzapalainga from the Central African Republic (CAR) or the DRC's Besungu.
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DeepSeek also listed some European candidates, like Parolin, Christoph Schonborn from Austria, or Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, as reformist voices.
On the conservative side, it suggested Robert Sarah from Guinea or Marcello Semeraro from Italy.
When Euronews Next corrected Anthropic, it said that the Church is in a period of "sede vacante" - Latin for "vacant seat" or the time when the papal office is unoccupied - and offered general information about how the conclave works.
It said it doesn't have information about who would be the next pope because that "would depend on the deliberations of the College of Cardinals".
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