Xi Jinping missing? No need to read too much into it
The global media is abuzz with speculation about the future of Xi Jinping because of his absence from public view between May 21 to June 5. Further intensifying rumours, Xi decided to skip the BRICS summit. Given the opacity that surrounds the functioning of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), such speculation is recurrent. Similar rumours were floated in 2012, exactly a year before he became President, and during the Covid 19 pandemic.
Xi has continued to rule for the last 13 years with a total grip on power. There has been no scope for dissent. Scholars and policymakers have relentlessly tried to get a peek into Xi Jinping's thoughts. Xi has been very clear about his idea of China and the CCP. He has consistently pushed for centralised control. He has totally abandoned Deng Xiaoping's dictum, 'Hide your strength and bide your time'. Xi has also purged a large number of opponents via the anti-corruption drive, targeting 'tigers and flies' alike. His current absence follows the removal of top Chinese military leadership.
The inner workings of the CCP continue to be elusive, even more so under Xi. Even after decades of globalisation, the world fails to understand the CCP and its leadership. Recall Bill Clinton's optimism after the introduction of the internet to China and the hope of it moving towards political freedom. He famously stated that trying to control the internet would be equivalent to 'nailing Jell-O to the wall'. But the CCP has done it.
Xi Jinping's absence could be due to something as mundane as a health issue, something which Chinese leaders do not like to make public, as it is perceived as a show of weakness, which can lead to instability. But he could just as well be taking time for strategy and policy. Before his historic 1992 Southern Tour, Deng Xiaoping had totally withdrawn himself from the public eye. This was after Tiananmen Square and the global backlash that followed.
Xi is facing a number of challenges domestically as well as internationally. The growth rate is low, and unemployment is rising. The ongoing trade war has continued to aggravate the domestic situation. He chaired a meeting on June 30 of a 24-member politburo committee, which supposedly reviewed 'new regulations on the party's institution'. What these are will only be clear once the CCP decides to make it public.
The party runs the country, and Xi Jinping runs the party, at least. With more than 100 million members by the end of 2024, the CCP is the second-largest political party in the world. China is one of the few countries in the world in which the communist party, albeit with an iron hand, has thrived in the 21st century. It has lifted millions out of poverty and made China the economic and military powerhouse that it is today. All this is not only due to centralised command but also because of its ability to adapt. With this backdrop, speculating too much about Xi's control over matters just because of his absence is bound to be a lazy, inaccurate analysis.
The writer is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hans India
an hour ago
- Hans India
Taiwan detects 17 Chinese military aircraft, seven naval vessels near its territory
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) has said that 17 Chinese military aircraft, seven naval vessels were detected operating around Taiwan until 6 am (local time) on Saturday. According to the ministry, eight out of 17 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's southwestern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). In response to Chinese military action, Taiwan's armed forces monitored the situation and deployed aircraft, naval vessels and coastal-based systems. In a statement shared on X, Taiwan's MND stated, "17 sorties of PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 8 out of 17 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded accordingly." This latest incursion follows similar activity the previous day when Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence reported that 26 Chinese military aircraft, seven naval vessels and one official ship were tracked near its territory by 6 am (local time) on Friday. Taiwan's armed forces monitored the situation and responded to Chinese military activity. "26 sorties of PLA aircraft, 7 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 24 out of 26 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan's northern and southwestern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded," Taiwan's MND stated in a post on Friday on X. Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), governed independently since 1949, continues to face threats from China, which claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory under the "One China" principle and insists on its reunification with Beijing. Taiwanese armed forces have remained on high alert, tracking the incursions and responding to them as part of ongoing efforts to safeguard the island's sovereignty and maintain regional stability.
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
2 hours ago
- First Post
How good relations with India are a geographic necessity for Maldives
In the balmy blue expanse of the Indian Ocean, geography is destiny. Few countries exemplify this axiom better than the Maldives, a string of vulnerable islands perched just 400 kilometres south-west of India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit saw its politics swinging from nationalistic bravado to regional pragmatism. India is a lifeline for the Maldives economically, strategically, and sometimes existentially. Equally, the geographical location of the Maldives is of great strategic interest for India. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Muizzu administration came to power amid campaign bluster demanding 'India Out'—a slogan aimed squarely at the presence of a minor Indian military contingent and Indian involvement in national affairs. For a time, it appeared that Chinese investment and political overtures could fill whatever void India might leave behind. Beijing, keen to expand its Belt and Road footprint, signed infrastructure deals and seemed eager to deliver. But in office, Muizzu has been forced to triangulate. The islands' routines of dependency have imposed themselves on decision-making. The core of this dependency is ignored only by the wilfully blind. Take potable water, a resource analysts regretfully call 'strategic' in a thirsty archipelago. In 2014, when a fire disabled Malé's only desalination plant, India, within hours, launched 'Operation Neer', sending drinking water by plane and ship. Other essentials function in a similarly Indian orbit. A big proportion of staples for the Maldivian table—rice, flour, sugar, and vegetables—comes from India. Around 70 per cent of the medicines on Maldivian pharmacy shelves bear Indian labels, a fact underscored by India's prompt medical assistance during the pandemic's darkest days. Construction is largely an act of import substitution: cement and steel from the Indian state of Gujarat underpin the Maldives' celebrated resorts. Even the fuel that powers government facilities and tourism's infrastructure comes, more often than not, from Indian refiners. Indian generosity is not purely altruistic; it is part of a carefully calibrated strategy for regional stability. New Delhi's extension of a $565 million (over ₹5,000 crore) line of credit during Modi's visit was complemented by the gifting of 100 military vehicles and, most notably, a 40 per cent reduction in Maldivian debt repayments. These gestures appear aimed not only at Malé but also at small Indian Ocean states teetering under China's loans. India's message, thinly veiled, is that it remains an engaged neighbour without the 'debt trap' tendencies attributed to Beijing. Underpinning this economic largesse is the delicate but vital domain of security. The Muizzu government did, rhetorically and practically, demand the withdrawal of an Indian military presence—a few helicopters, pilots, and medical teams. But few in Malé believe that strategic cooperation is obsolete. For much of the last two decades, Indian military personnel have quietly supplied a reassuring counterweight to the region's instability—responding to terror threats, evacuating citizens, and delivering supplies during storms. If trust can be rebuilt, there is little doubt India could once more be invited to base a small, stabilising detachment on Malé. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The diplomatic thaw is also boosting the engine of Maldivian prosperity: tourism. Indian visitors have long been an economic mainstay, accounting for a record 23 per cent of arrivals at the height of post-pandemic travel in 2021 and still second only to Russia in 2023 at around 11 per cent. As relations warm, Indian tourists—buoyed by rupee-rufiyaa payment schemes and new digital connectivity—are again filling the resorts. Hoteliers expect their share to rise swiftly, restoring a crucial underpinning of the islands' revenues. For India, the challenge is to translate geographical inevitability into goodwill, not resentment. Easing the debt overhang for Malé, maintaining open lines of credit, and quickening disaster response all lend durable influence. Muizzu's government is betting, sensibly, on triangulation. Engagement with China will continue and should not unduly concern New Delhi so long as core security interests are respected. But the underlying message is clear: in the Indian Ocean, the TINA factor rules—There Is No Alternative to India, certainly not for the Maldives. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For all the rhetoric of 'India Out' the Maldives' best bet remains partnership, and for India, steady generosity will be the surest path to lasting influence in the archipelago's sunlit waters. The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Firstpost.
Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Indian Express
Taiwan votes to decide whether to oust lawmakers from China-friendly party in closely watched poll
Taiwanese were voting Saturday to determine whether to oust about one-fifth of their lawmakers, all from the opposition Nationalist Party, in elections that could potentially reshape the power balance in the self-ruled island's legislature. The independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party won last year's presidential election, but the China-friendly Nationalists, also known as the KMT, and the smaller Taiwan People's Party have enough seats to form a majority bloc. Those who support removing the 24 lawmakers are angry that the KMT and its allies have blocked key legislation, especially the defense budget, and passed controversial changes that are seen as diminishing the power of the executive and favoring China, which considers the island its own territory. The opposition parties' actions sparked concerns among some Taiwanese about the island's democratic integrity and its ability to deter Chinese military threats, leading to the recall campaigns. The scale of the recall elections is unprecedented, with another seven KMT lawmakers facing similar votes on Aug. 23. But the KMT alleged the ruling party was resorting to political retaliation after it lost the legislative majority, saying the recalls were undermining and challenging Taiwan's democratic system. The KMT holds 52 seats, while the ruling DPP holds 51 seats. For the DPP to secure a legislative majority, at least six KMT lawmakers would need to be ousted, and the ruling party would need to win all by-elections, which would need to be held within three months following the announcement of results. For the recall to pass, more than a quarter of eligible voters in the electoral district must vote in favor of the recall, and the total number of supporters must exceed those against. If KMT loses its seats in the recall elections, the party can file new candidates for the by-elections and may be able to win back the seats. Outside a Taipei polling station, voters old and young were waiting in line to cast their ballots. The poll will close at 4 p.m. local time, with results expected on Saturday night. The elections have intensified tensions between those backing the status quo and those favoring improved ties with Beijing. Critics accuse China-friendly politicians of compromising Taiwan and take issue with their meetings with mainland Chinese politicians. But these Taiwanese politicians claim their connections are vital for dialogue given Beijing's refusal to interact with the DPP. When asked about the recall election, China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said in June that since the administration of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te came into power, it has sought to achieve 'one-party dominance' and practiced 'dictatorship' under the guise of 'democracy,' state broadcaster CCTV reported. She was quoted as saying that Lai's government has spared no effort in suppressing opposition parties and those who supported the development of cross-strait relations. Taiwan's mainland affairs council said Wednesday that the Chinese authorities and state media had tried to blatantly interfere with the vote.
