Ashmore Group (LON:ASHM) investors are sitting on a loss of 39% if they invested five years ago
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Ashmore Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 19% each year. The share price decline of 16% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Dive deeper into Ashmore Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Ashmore Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Ashmore Group, it has a TSR of -39% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Ashmore Group provided a TSR of 11% over the year (including dividends). That's fairly close to the broader market return. The silver lining is that the share price is up in the short term, which flies in the face of the annualised loss of 7% over the last five years. We're pretty skeptical of turnaround stories, but it's good to see the recent share price recovery. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ashmore Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ashmore Group you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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