
Bank of England could cut base rate if jobs market continues to slow
Companies are 'also having pay rises that are possibly less than they would have been if the NICs change hadn't happened', Mr Bailey said.
In an interview with the newspaper, the governor said the British economy was growing behind its potential.
This could open up 'slack' to bring down inflation, he said, meaning prices on goods would rise less swiftly compared with earnings in future.
Mr Bailey said he believes the base rate set by the Bank of England would be lowered in future, after it was held in June.
The current Bank rate of 4.25%, which has a bearing on all lending in the UK – including mortgages – will be reviewed again on August 7 by the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee.
'I really do believe the path is downward,' Mr Bailey told The Times.
He added: 'But we continue to use the words 'gradual and careful' because… some people say to me 'why are you cutting when inflation's above target?''
(PA Graphics)
The governor's indication that lower lending rates and reduced inflation could be around the corner comes as the Government is facing pressure to improve living standards.
Ms Reeves' tax and spend plans are also being constrained by the current borrowing costs, as well as downgraded growth forecasts.
The Chancellor's fiscal headroom has been in part eroded by U-turns on the winter fuel payment and welfare reforms, as well as global shocks to the British economy.
Some in the Labour Party, including former leader Lord Neil Kinnock and Wales's First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan, are calling for a wealth tax to help bolster the public finances.
On Sunday, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said such a tax had not been 'directly' discussed when ministers held an away day at the end of last week.
But speaking to Sky News' Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme, she would not rule out tax rises at the autumn budget, only saying tax decisions would be made based on 'fairness'.
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Leader Live
22 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Reeves hails ‘instant impact' for aspiring homeowners as red tape is cut
More mortgages will be available at more than 4.5 times a buyer's income following recent Bank of England recommendations that some lenders can offer more high loan-to-income mortgages if they choose to. This will create up to 36,000 additional mortgages for first-time buyers over the first year, the Government said. Britain's biggest building society – Nationwide – announced last week that it is aiming to increase its high loan-to-income lending limit. From Wednesday, eligible first-time buyers can apply for Nationwide's Helping Hand mortgage with a £30,000 salary, down from £35,000, and joint applicants with a £50,000 combined salary – down from £55,000. It is estimated this will support an additional 10,000 first-time buyers each year. The changes will sit alongside the creation of a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme, delivering on a manifesto commitment, and a review of Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) lending rules that could allow prospective buyers' records of paying rent on time to be used to show they can afford mortgage repayments. Reforms will be outlined in Leeds ahead of Ms Reeves's Mansion House speech on Tuesday evening. Speaking in the City of London, the Chancellor is expected to say: 'I welcome the recent changes the (Bank of England) Financial Policy Committee has announced to the loan-to-income limit on mortgage lending, which the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) and FCA are implementing immediately. 'With an instant impact for consumers, such as Nationwide offering its Helping Hand mortgage to more first-time buyers – supporting an additional 10,000 each year.' Ms Reeves is expected to add: 'Today, I have placed financial services at the heart of the Government's growth mission. 'Recognising that Britain cannot succeed and meet its growth ambitions without a financial services sector that is fighting fit and thriving. 'And I have been clear on the benefits that that will drive. 'With a ripple effect that will drive investment in all sectors of our economy and put pounds in the pockets of working people.' Nicholas Mendes, mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, said: 'The decision to widen access to Nationwide's Helping Hand mortgage by lowering the income thresholds will offer an immediate and practical benefit to a group of people who have often found themselves just on the wrong side of affordability criteria. 'For someone earning £30,000 on their own, or couples on a combined income of £50,000, this change could be the difference between continuing to rent and finally being able to move into a home of their own. 'It acknowledges the gap between headline figures and real life, and it shows a willingness to make the system better reflect the pressures people are actually under. 'It will also bring particular value to those in stable, lower-paid roles that are so essential to society but are often overlooked by traditional lending models. 'People working in care, education, retail, and public service are typically in long-term employment and manage their finances carefully, yet they are the very people who have found the doors to homeownership closed to them. 'This reform suggests that financial discipline is being recognised more broadly than by salary alone, and that is a very welcome shift. 'Equally, the recognition that a person's history of paying rent should be considered when assessing their ability to repay a mortgage is something many in the industry have been calling for over many years. 'If someone has shown, consistently and over time, that they can manage rental payments at a level equal to or even above the mortgage they are applying for, then it stands to reason that this should be considered a reliable indicator of affordability.' Paula Higgins, chief executive of the HomeOwners Alliance, said the Government should 'turn its attention to fixing the Lifetime Isa (Lisa)'. She said: 'Right now, anyone forced to withdraw their savings early faces an unfair penalty.' Ms Higgins added: 'And the £450,000 property price cap hasn't moved since Lisas launched in 2017, despite soaring house prices, particularly in the South East. 'Reforming Lisas would make a real, practical difference to those trying to get on the ladder.' Henry Jordan, Nationwide's director of home said: 'Our changes mean more people, particularly those on lower incomes, could become eligible for a mortgage. 'We also hope our commitment to further lending provides a boost to the UK's housebuilding ambitions as well as encouraging other lenders to increase support for those looking for a home of their own.' Writing in the Daily Express, shadow chancellor Mel Stride said Labour 'has taken a wrecking ball to the economy and they are making life increasingly difficult for people up and down the country'. He said: 'Rachel Reeves will no doubt claim today that her plan is working, that she is on the side of working people and that she will help people get on the property ladder. 'But all she is doing is giving with one hand whilst her Labour colleagues take with the other. 'If Keir Starmer continues to roll out the red carpet for migrants, British people will not see the benefit of more home ownership. An ever increasing number of properties will go to foreigners and their families.'


Daily Record
23 minutes ago
- Daily Record
Brits urged to 'go home' by Majorca hotels in awkward billboard plea
Hotels are putting up signage across the island in a bid to reclaim the viral "go home" messaging that local protesters have deployed Hoteliers in Majorca are uniting to urge British holidaymakers to "go home", but unlike the placards of local residents protesting against the effects of mass tourism, these hotel businesses are asking them to return "soon." The Majorca Hotel Business Federation (FEHM) is erecting signs across the island in an attempt to reclaim the viral "go home" slogan used by local demonstrators demanding stricter regulations on short-term holiday rentals and a halt to hotel construction in favour of residential homes. Signs in both English and German, aimed at two of the Spanish island's key tourist demographics, will now somewhat awkwardly read: "Tourist, go home happy. Be happier returning to Mallorca soon. Thanks!". Despite an early summer dip in visitors from Germany and Spain, Brits, seemingly unfazed by the prospect of having a 'go home' placard brandished at them, have been dubbed the islands' "most loyal holidaymakers". This is evidenced by a recent nine per cent surge in British tourists visiting Majorca and a six per cent increase across the Balearics overall. Approximately 20 billboards will carry these messages, as reported by the Majorca Daily Bulletin, in a bid by business leaders to counteract some of the negative sentiment stirred up by these often well-attended protests. Javier Vich, the president of MEHF, expressed his hope that the billboards would capitalise on a recent significant victory for the local hospitality industry. The sector had experienced walk-outs and strikes over pay, before a "best in Spain" increase of 13.5 per cent was agreed with employers. Vich stated: "Every month during the high season, 235,000 salaries are paid in sectors linked to tourism: transport, catering, culture, leisure and hospitality.' before stressing that these salaries were paid from the proceeds of tourists visiting the island. He added: "We cannot allow a radical minority to damage the work carried out over many years by so many people who have made tourism their way of life." The Balearic Islands rank as the third most popular destination for holidaymakers travelling to Spain, which has witnessed a tremendous tourism surge since the pandemic. This has resulted in a significant increase in illegal holiday rentals across the country, reducing the number of homes available for locals and driving up rental prices. However, Vich contended: "Tourism cannot be the punching bag for all the structural problems of this community."

The National
an hour ago
- The National
UK draining aid budget with asylum seeker hotel policy
Some £1.8 billion of the projected £8.9 billion budget for overseas assistance could be spent on supporting refugees and asylum seekers in Britain in 2027-28, a report by the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI) says. THE UK's shrinking aid budget is being drained by the Government's prolonged use of asylum hotels — diverting life-saving global development funds while failing to provide refugees with humane and timely support, a watchdog has warned. Despite the June spending review suggesting a reduction in such costs over the next three years, the asylum seeker system is still on course to absorb a 'significant portion' of total aid funding, leaving as little as 0.24% of gross national income for global development, according to the watchdog. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced plans to end the use of hotels to house asylum seekers by the end of this Parliament after the National Audit Office said accommodation costs could hit £15.3 billion over a 10-year period. READ MORE: Heckling of Nigel Farage will only help reinforce Reform UK's mantra But progress in bringing down aid spending on so-called in-donor refugee costs remains 'slow', the ICAI said. International OECD rules allow governments to use their aid budgets to cover some of the costs of helping people claiming asylum in the first year of entering a country, such as housing and food. According to ICAI calculations, asylum costs are expected to take up £2.2 billion of total UK official development assistance (ODA) funding for 2026-27, £1.8 billion the following year and £1.5 billion by 2028-29. The UK Government slashed Britain's aid budget earlier this year from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% in order to pay for increased defence spending. Total ODA spending is now expected to fall from £10 billion in 2026-27 to £8.9 billion the following year before increasing slightly to £9.4 billion in 2028-29. This means a fifth of the total aid spend in 2027-28 is expected to go towards asylum costs, before dipping to around a sixth in 2028-29. ICAI commissioner Harold Freeman, who led the new report, acknowledged the Government had already taken some steps to address 'flaws in the system' but said further changes would be likely to be needed. READ MORE: Russell Findlay under fire for £150k taxpayer cash given to ex-spin doctor's firms He said: 'The UK's development programme is at a turning point, with budget reductions coming against a backdrop of increasing global conflicts, climate threats and rising humanitarian needs. 'At the same time, UK asylum costs are likely to continue to absorb a significant proportion of our aid funding. 'The Government has already taken steps to address some of the flaws in the system for managing aid identified by past ICAI work. 'But further changes will likely be needed to maximise the impact and value for money of the remaining development budget.' The UK Government has been contacted for comment. Last year, the watchdog raised 'value for money' concerns after some 28% – or £4.3 billion – of all UK aid in 2023 was spent on hosting refugees and asylum seekers in Britain under the previous Conservative government. The amount of ODA spending on in-house refugee costs has risen dramatically since 2020, in part due to visa schemes for Afghan and Ukrainian people but largely linked to lengthy stays in so-called asylum hotels, the ICAI said. In response to its latest report, the Tories said the 'eye-watering cost' of housing asylum seekers was 'utterly indefensible, particularly when so many people are struggling to get by'. Shadow Home Office minister Katie Lam said: 'This broken system rewards delay and indecision, while the British taxpayer foots the bill. 'Those who have no right to stay here should not be languishing in hotels; they should be detained and deported within days – not years. 'We need a migration system that is firm, fair, and fast. 'Over the past 12 months, Keir Starmer has systematically dismantled every deterrent, while his joke of a migrant deal agreed with France last week will do nothing to stem the flow of migrants risking their lives to cross the Channel.' The One campaign, which aims to reduce poverty in Africa, said the report confirmed that UK aid had been 'stretched to breaking point'. Executive director Adrian Lovett said: 'While it's right that refugees are housed in safe accommodation, paying for this from the diminished international aid budget means there will be even less support for the world's most vulnerable people at a time of growing global need.' Lovett added: 'The UK is at its best when it delivers a strong and growing aid budget, but also uses its political and diplomatic muscle to help create the conditions for sustainable solutions. 'We look to ministers to be creative and ambitious on both fronts in the months and years ahead.'