‘70pc chance' Reform and Tories will merge, says Conservative grandee

Telegraph

14-02-2025

There is a 70 per cent chance of the Tories and Reform UK merging ahead of the next general election, a senior Conservative MP has said.
Sir Edward Leigh, who has been a Tory MP since 1983 and is now the Father of the House as the longest-serving male MP, said the chances of a deal being done were high.
His comments came just days after Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, dismissed the idea of an election pact with Nigel Farage's party.
There have been calls from senior former Tory ministers for Mrs Badenoch to consider some form of deal with Reform to end the split on the Right.
Asked what he believed the betting odds were of Reform and the Tories merging by the next general election, Sir Edward told GB News's Chopper's Political Podcast: 'Oh, I think very high.'
When asked if he believed it to be 'odds on', the MP replied: '70 per cent I should think. Or if not merger [a deal of some sort].'
Sir Edward was also asked if he believed Mrs Badenoch would lead the Tories into the next election.
He said: 'I have no idea. I wish her well. But I have to say going back in history we did burn through three leaders after we lost badly in 1997 before we got to one who won.
'So, whoever is leader at the moment, and by the way if Robert Jenrick had won people would be criticising him and saying he is a Tory boy, he is out of touch.
'So who knows who is going to lead us into the next [election] but I wish her well.'
In an interview with The Telegraph this week to mark her 100th day as Conservative leader, Mrs Badenoch warned that striking a deal with Reform would drive away Tory voters who did not want to see her 'get into bed' with Mr Farage.
Mrs Badenoch said: 'The Conservative Party is a broad church. When we had disagreements, what people saw was disunity. We've now got a place where we are unified.
'The idea that you just do something with a whole different bunch of people and it's going to be fine is for the birds. Politics just doesn't work like that.
'There are many people who vote Conservative, who if they think that we're having mergers or pacts or whatever with Reform, will go elsewhere.'
Mr Farage has said his party would not make a pact with the Conservatives because they were not 'honourable'.
He said earlier this week: 'After the betrayal post the 2019 election, we do not believe them to be honourable. Simple as that, so the answer is no.'
Reform is now topping opinion polls, equal with Labour on 25 per cent of the vote, according to an average of recent results. The Tories trail on 22 per cent.