'Alberta Forever Canada' petition sees potential hurdles according to Alberta political scientist

Edmonton Journal

3 days ago

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'I would think that this has got to be one of largest petition campaigns, not just in Alberta, but in Canadian history,' Wesley said. 'I can't recall a petition in Canada that would have had north of 250,000 signatures.'
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If they are able to garner that number of signatures in the dead-heat of summer, Wesley said it would be a great political feat.
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It's a high-risk, high-reward venture that will ultimately see where Alberta stands on the topic.
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'If they get enough signatures, it does definitely support their claim that Albertans want nothing to do with separatism,' he said. 'If they don't, it has the potential to put wind in the sails of the separatist movement, who can claim their numbers are bigger than what the polls are showing.'
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Wesley hopes the petition isn't motivated by wedge politics.
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He views petitions and referendums as majoritarian instruments that are often used on complex issues that require discussion and negotiation.
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'In a way, taking this to the streets and having these conversations in public removes it from the elite-style accommodation that makes federalism work in Canada,' Wesley said. 'Will this drive a wedge within the United Conservative Party? I'm not sure they need any more.
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'They've got the federal byelection campaign that's drawn the leader of the federal party into discussions around this; the UCP has their AGM in the fall where this will be at the top of their agenda; and if anything, this petition adds one more potential area for division among the UCP caucus and cabinet.'
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With additional external pressures, Wesley said the petition will become another front where the UCP will need to pay attention.
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'And that position is very unclear,' he said.
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In terms of the petition itself, Wesley said one challenge it may face can draw similarities from what federalists ran into during the Quebec 1995 referendum campaign.
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'Albertans, like Quebecers, are not happy with the status quo, so selling them on the notion of remaining… (it doesn't) really capture the mood of Albertans, most of whom are not actually happy with the way things are going within confederation,' he said.
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One of the challenges he sees is avoiding the sell of 'what Canada is right now.'
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'That's what the federalists did in Quebec in 1995,' Wesley said. 'Jean Chretien famously said that when somebody asks him how easy it is to campaign he'd say, 'It's easy, I have the best product in the world: I've got Canada.'
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'And if that's the tactic that the Lukaszuk group is going to employ, I think they're going to find some resistance on the doorstep.'
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Another potential pitfall is making people choose between Canada and Alberta.
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'The vast majority of Albertans strongly identify with their province and country, and more than that, they hate being asked to pick between the two,' Wesley said. 'If the Forever Canada campaign is only selling Canada and not talking about what it means to be Albertan and how being Albertan is also being Canadian, I think it's going to be a branding misfire.'
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If there's one thing Wesley would like someone to ask, it would be regarding laws surrounding the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) petition and Lukaszuk's petition.