A 12-day war followed by a sudden ceasefire. Some Iranians now wonder what comes next

San Francisco Chronicle​

7 days ago

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — For many Iranians it was a lightning sequence of events: A 12-day war with Israel and a sudden, U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Now, as they return to their neighborhoods deeply shaken by Israeli air assaults, fears mount over what the country's theocracy may do next.
Human rights advocates have already warned that Iran's government is ramping up executions of dissidents and political prisoners. Since Israel launched strikes on June 13, targeting Iran's nuclear program and top military officials, Tehran has said that six people were executed on charges of spying for Israel — three of them on Wednesday alone.
Four Iranians recounted to The Associated Press that they believe only a minority in the Islamic Republic still firmly supports its leadership. They said they are concerned the fallout from Israel's attack will derail any momentum for change in the country's clerical rule, in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The four spoke on condition of anonymity or agreeing that only their first names be used over fears of reprisals.
'We don't know what will happen," said Shirin, a 49-year-old living in northern Tehran, the Iranian capital. She speculated that the authorities could 'take out all of their anger' at the losses in the war on ordinary Iranians.
Fear of repression grows
Nooshin, a 44-year-old Tehran housewife, said the government's playbook of clamping down amid internal or external pressure had already started when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a truce between Iran and Israel on Tuesday.
'Basically, after every crisis, the Iranian regime has a habit of punishing its own people, and this time, it will probably get many dissidents into trouble,' she said.
The fast-tracking of several death sentence cases in recent days has sparked fears from activists that an even deadlier wave of executions could take place now that the conflict is over, similar to what followed Iran's 1980s war with Iraq.
'After the ceasefire with Israel, the Islamic Republic needs more repression to cover up military failures, prevent protests, and ensure its continued survival," Mahmood Amiry Moghaddam, the director of the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization, said Wednesday.
'Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of prisoners might be at risk of executions' in the coming weeks, he added.
Iranian officials, including Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, defended the government's actions and lauded what he described as the unity of Iranians.
'Our people showed that they are resolute in their defense of national security and sovereignty,' he told Al Jazeera English on Wednesday.
Information blackout
Days of on-and-off internet connectivity have left the population of more than 80 million people scrambling to fill in the gaps of Iranian state broadcasts.
Alongside revolutionary and Islamic slogans, state media has tried to drum up a rally-behind-the-flag message, echoing past similar efforts during the Iran-Iraq war. Anchors signed off broadcasts by reciting a famous line of nationalist poetry.
Elias Hazrati, a state media official considered close to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, made a rare acknowledgment of deep political and social divisions in the country while calling for solidarity against foreign threats.
But Shirin, from northern Tehran, said she feared there were "horrible things the government is doing right now that we have no clue about and won't know until they want us to know.'
Some are optimistic
Mahshid, who lives in the northwestern city of Qazvin, said she was hopeful about what the end of the war would bring and that she expects the authorities' recent leniency on enforcing the mandatory headscarf, or hijab, will remain in place.
'I feel that after emotions subside, the government will be tolerant of people on issues such as the hijab and personal freedoms,' the 45-year-old woman said.
Another Tehran resident, an academic researcher who asked not to be identified by name, echoed that sentiment. He said that it was less likely authorities would be able to roll back other changes that have swept the country following years of unrest and protests against the law on the women's headscarf.
'It's unlikely the Islamic Republic will become more hard-line on social issues," he said.
"Because of Israel's attacks, they've been weakened,' he said of the authorities, adding that there have been rumors about easing restrictions on social media platforms like WhatsApp and Instagram in the coming days.
Same old power shortages
The researcher said Israel had 'also been targeting a lot of non-military targets' around the capital. He said an airstrike near Midan-e Tajrish, a central square surrounded by upscale Tehran areas, had knocked out water supplies for at least a couple of days in the nearby neighborhoods.
Power shortages, however, were already a part of everyday life before the war — a result of years of economic mismanagement in the country that has fueled calls for change.
'The electricity cuts for about two hours most days of the week, like we did before the war,' he said.
Amid the war, supporters of Iran's clerical establishment have also tried to align themselves with what he called more 'nationalist' parts of society, without really addressing popular calls for deep reforms.
'These are the people you see demonstrating in the streets, saying we have been victorious in this war,' he said. 'But most people, more than half of the country, were people who didn't want this war.'