NIGEL FARAGE: Britain can no longer be treated like a charity for the rest of the world
Skilled migrants, we have long been told, will assimilate, strengthen our economy and drive innovation.
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Times
12 hours ago
- Times
Don't Tell Sid, but India looks a better bet than the UK economy
Based on Rachel Reeves's Mansion House speech last week, the government seems to have finally got the memo that talking down an already depressed economy isn't particularly helpful to its growth agenda. While the adjective 'rousing' is rarely associated with the Mansion House speech, the chancellor did her best to cobble together an investment case for the UK, with a focus on convincing more retail investors to put their savings into UK assets. If this wasn't enough, British retail, or would-be retail, investors can also look forward to a government-backed 'Tell Sid'-style ad campaign to cajole them into buying domestic equities. Reeves faces huge challenges, underlined by the higher-than-expected inflation data the day after her speech. Part of the problem with nudging people into investing more in domestic shares is that investing today is a much more global game than in 1986, when the original British Gas campaign was launched to encourage investment in British Gas. At that time, for example, there were no emerging markets mutual funds available to retail investors, and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hadn't been invented. The UK is now competing against the rest of the world for its own citizens' money. America has, overall, been the biggest beneficiary of this shift within global capital markets. But, arguably, a far more pertinent example from a UK perspective, given the extreme contrast in recent fortunes and relative merits, isn't the US or even certain European markets, but India. India is already the world's fifth-biggest economy. Data this month showed that it is on track to have its best year for initial public offerings (IPOs), raising roughly $1.5 billion more by this point in the year compared with 2024. It's now the largest IPO market outside the US. In contrast, in the first quarter of this year, just £75 million was raised via listings in the UK. According to Goldman Sachs, there have been $42 billion of inflows into Indian equities from within India itself in the past 12 months. For a market where only a small minority of people have any stock market investments, this is extraordinary. Indians who are in a position to do so are backing their economy in a way that Reeves could only dream of. But when considered in the context of India's broader investment case, it's not hard to understand why. No country, not even America, has enjoyed such an array of structural advantages at this stage of its economic development. Some predictions suggest that India, currently growing by about 6 per cent annually, could become the world's third-largest economy as soon as 2028. Unlike many developed economies, India's population pyramid is not completely inverted, meaning it has a largely healthy, young and increasingly well-educated population to fuel its growth. In contrast to the UK trying to modernise its somewhat 'old world' economy, India is a hive of innovation and entrepreneurship. It already boasts a thriving start-up ecosystem that has created 121 'unicorns' (companies that have achieved valuations of at least $1 billion), the third-highest in the world. The tech leaders of the future are more likely to be born in Bangalore than in the Bay Area. This isn't to suggest that India's investment case is without weakness. The country has long maintained a range of protectionist economic measures, such as high tariffs and strict capital controls, which deter inbound investment and limit outbound investment in non-Indian assets. India's labyrinthine state bureaucracy, red tape, and impenetrable tax system have been significant impediments to growth. Its banking sector suffers from a lack of oversight, hindering domestic businesses from accessing global services and lines of credit. However, from a capital allocator's perspective, part of what makes India attractive is that these weaknesses can, in theory, be addressed with the right reforms and political will. While the economic gains of doing so are difficult to calculate, rough estimates suggest that they could lead to $30 billion–$40 billion of extra India inflows each year, potentially rising to $150 billion–$200 billion over five years. Numbers like this would turbocharge the Indian economic juggernaut. This is why Narendra Modi, the prime minister, has introduced measures to liberalise India's foreign direct investment policies and make the market more accessible to international investors. The 135 per cent rise of India's 'Nifty 50', a key benchmark for its stock market over the past five years, has dwarfed other global indices, including the S&P 500, up 60 per cent, and could be turbocharged by a more aggressive reform agenda and a comprehensive American trade deal, which is being negotiated. This is momentum based on economic fundamentals, which doesn't require an ad campaign, Sid or otherwise. Seema Shah is chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management
Daily Mail
12 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Wunderkind trades blows with wounded WPP as ad giant's shares slump
A fierce row has broken out between media giant WPP and one of its former rising stars after he launched an extraordinary attack on the business, accusing it of 'making it up as it goes along'. Ajaz Ahmed, who set up ad agency AKQA as a student in 1994, told The Mail on Sunday that London-based WPP had lost its way and was 'more focused on winning awards' than winning the clients needed to compete on the world stage. It came as one of Britain's most senior media bosses said WPP had 'lost a lot of business' and was failing to convince prospective clients of its strengths. But insiders at WPP have hit back, saying Ahmed has 'an axe to grind'. WPP has been beset by falling profits and the rise of artificial intelligence that threatens to make ad agencies extinct. The firm lost its crown as the world's biggest advertising group to France's Publicis last year and its share price has fallen 44 per cent in the past 12 months. It issued a profit warning this month, citing 'continued macro uncertainty' as clients cut back on ad spending due to turmoil in the global economy. But Ahmed said the firm's problems ran deeper, saying WPP had 'failed to deliver meaningful growth' with 'little evidence of a compelling long-term vision'. He said: 'Its UK-centric structure feels parochial in a landscape where global growth is driven by US-based companies.' Ahmed also said WPP's attempt to get workers back into the office four days a week had 'demotivated staff and damaged trust'. But a well-placed source at the firm said Ahmed had 'left a mess' at AKQA and this was an attempt to 'settle a score', adding: 'Lots of board members had wanted to fire him but he was protected by some senior management.' Another insider wished Ajaz 'would move on', accusing him of making 'very generalist claims'. 'A lot of people who leave WPP have a habit of commenting on it,' the insider added, a reference to its former boss Sir Martin Sorrell, who left in 2018. AKQA shot to fame due to its focus on the growing influence of the then-new internet advertising market. Its clients have included video streaming giant Netflix, payment firm Visa and taxi app Uber. In 2012, WPP took control of AKQA in a deal valuing it at nearly £350 million. After more than a decade under WPP, Ahmed quit as head of AKQA in October last year and has re-emerged as the head of a new agency called He is not alone in his assessment of WPP. One of the UK's most senior media executives told The Mail on Sunday the ad giant had 'lost a lot of business' to Publicis. The source also said potential clients were confused by WPP's efforts to use AI to create cheaper and faster marketing campaigns, saying: 'It says it is investing millions. But what does that mean?' This month, WPP said Microsoft executive Cindy Rose would replace Mark Read as chief executive at the end of the year. A WPP spokesman said: 'Ahmed is now competing with his former employer. After two years of underperformance, AKQA is back winning business. 'WPP's AI strategy has been well received, by existing and prospective clients as demonstrated in significant extensions and wins in the past 12 months such as Amazon, Johnson & Johnson and Unilever.'
Telegraph
13 hours ago
- Telegraph
This is how we reboot Britain's decimated economy
It was meant to be turning Britain into the fastest-growing economy in the G7. It was meant to be shaking up planning laws, picking the fast-growing new industries to prioritise for investment and unlocking a wave of inward investment by restoring 'stability' and 'grown-up' government. Labour made plenty of bold promises during the election campaign last year. And yet, as this week's shocking employment data made painfully clear, the British economy is stagnating. Even worse, gilt yields are far too high, with the markets increasingly deeming HM Government's to be a risky credit. The two main parties of the Right, the Conservatives and Reform, must urgently start devising a compelling free-market, pro-growth alternative, an adulterated version of the sorts of much-needed changes pushed through in Argentina by Javier Milei. Whatever its other faults, and there were plenty of them, over the past 20 years the British economy was at least very good at generating lots of jobs. They were not necessarily very skilled, or productive, but they were plentiful. This is not the case anymore. On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics published the latest employment data. It made for depressing reading. Another 40,000 people dropped off the payrolls in June, the fourth month in a row that the number of employees has fallen. Over the past year, almost 200,000 net salaried roles have vanished, the most significant decline since the Covid pandemic. The vacancy data is even more worrying, with the number of openings falling for 36 consecutive months. The welfare rolls are the only metric that is booming. The public sector is still expanding as if money would keep flowing forever. But the private sector has stopped hiring. The reason is simple: GDP is barely going up, and yet the cost of employing workers is rising. The minimum wage has been pushed too high for many companies and the Chancellor made a catastrophic error of judgment when she increased employers' National Insurance contributions and lowered the threshold at which these have to be paid. NI is a tax on jobs; it is no great surprise that we now have fewer of them. It is only going to get worse over the next few months. It takes time for the companies to slim down their workforce, as most of them prefer 'natural wastage' to risking the hassle and expense of an employment tribunal by laying people off. As people leave they won't be replaced. And the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's draconian extension of employment rights will further undermine the economy. Why risk hiring someone if you can't get rid of them? Without new jobs, the economy can't grow; while it will be impossible to shift people off welfare benefits, the tax base will shrink; and the burden on the Treasury will grow ever larger. Britain will be tapped in a doom loop where taxes crush employment, leading to lower revenues, which in turn means taxes have to be pushed even higher, starting the whole dismal cycle all over again. There is only one way to fix the malaise. The Conservatives and Reform have to make the case for a free-market revolution. It is not exactly hard. The time has come to stop pushing up the 'living wage' by more than the rate of inflation every year. We need to deregulate the labour market, repealing Rayner's idiotic reforms and also blocking the madness of judges effectively setting wage rates by using equalities legislation. It is better to be hired and fired than to never be hired at all. We need to rein in the public sector to reduce the deficit and allow room for supply-side tax cuts. We need a radical programme of liberalisation to fire up the animal spirits of entrepreneurship once again. Net zero should be scrapped. The lower capital gains rate for entrepreneurs should be restored in full, and the lifetime limit put back to £10m. We need a better monetary policy that actually targets price stability. Planning laws should be genuinely liberalised so that firms can start building. Ridiculous laws left over from the European Union, such as the GDPR rules (perhaps the worst piece of internet legislation ever devised), should be repealed to allow start-ups to flourish. 'Opportunity Zones' based on the successful experiment from president Trump's first term should be launched, with lower taxes and lighter regulation, to reboot run-down urban areas. Each one of these policies would help fix some of the damage from Labour's disastrous first year. Taken together, they would get the economy moving again, laying the foundations for the long project of restoring the nation's prosperity. The campaign needs to start now. For too long, the British political establishment has complacently assumed the economy could withstand whatever taxes and regulations were thrown at it. We learnt this week that is no longer true. Like much of the rest of the country, it is now broken.
