Short Report: Mobileye bears fade stock bounce
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SHORT INTEREST GAINERS
Ortex-reported short interest in MobilEye (MBLY) had tracked in 22%-23% range from the last week of April through the first week of July, though this week has seen a more pronounced increase in bearishness. Shorts as a percentage of free float rose from 22.5% to 26.3% – a two and a half month high while days-to-cover rose from 5.2 to 5.6, just as shares fell over 10% in a two-day span through Thursday and 13% in the four-day period covered. The stock had tracked strength in Tesla (TSLA) following its Austin cybertaxi launch in late June, though the bullish sentiment and a higher-than-expected Q2 revenue pre-announcement this week was overshadowed by the company's 50M share secondary, along with the announcement that Intel (INTC) is selling 8% of its 88% holding in the company. The stock was down another 3% on Friday and has now lost 19% year-to-date.
Ortex-reported short interest in Quantum Computing (QUBT) had matched an all-time high of 25% established in late 2024 for the third time in the last week of June, though this week has finally seen the bearish appetite reach a new peak. Shorts as a percentage of free float on the name jumped from 23.9% all the way to 27.6%. The stock, meanwhile, corrected about 9%, consolidating a 41% run of the prior two weeks. Quantum Computing was down another 9% on Friday, though even after this week's declines, the stock is still trading up 5% year-to-date.
Ortex-reported short interest in NuScale Power (SMR) had been in retreat over the second half of May when the stock price began its steep climb higher, though the bias reversed course two weeks into the move and bears were more inclined to increase exposure, even with the run-up in the stock price through the entire month of June. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float rose from 20.7% to nearly 23%, which is also less than one percent away from the highest level in short interest since February. The stock was up less than 1% in the four-day period covered through Thursday, though Friday saw shares gain over 4%. Year-to-date, NuScale Power has now doubled.
SHORT INTEREST DECLINERS
Ortex-reported short interest in Petco Health (WOOF) rose from about two percentage points to 32% over the first half of June in the wake of the company reporting a worse than expected set of earnings on June 5th that also saw the stock crater some 35% in two-week time. Shares have since bounced from their June 17th lows, gaining nearly 30%, and short positioning as a percentage of free float has also receded. This week, short interest on Petco fell from 29.5% to 23.7% – a one year low. Ortex data echoes exchange-reported short interest which was last reported down from nearly 30% to 25% as of June 30th. In the four-day period covered, the stock was flat.
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Job cuts accelerate as Reeves tax raid bites
Britain's private sector companies cut jobs at the fastest pace since February, a closely watched survey showed, as Rachel Reeves's tax raid pushed up staffing costs. Employment in both the manufacturing and service sectors fell for the 10th consecutive month during July, the S&P Global Flash UK PMI showed. Bosses complained that increased payroll costs had forced them into redundancies and hiring freezes. In April, companies faced an increased in employer National Insurance contributions and the national minimum wage, which were announced in the Chancellor's Budget last year. The FTSE 100 rose 1pc to a new record high and the value of the pound fell amid expectations that the jobs slowdown would encourage the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month. 'The flash UK PMI survey for July shows the economy struggling to expand as we move into the second half of the year,' said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. 'The sluggish output growth reported in July reflected headwinds of deteriorating order books, subdued business confidence and rising costs, all of which were widely linked to the ongoing impact of the policy changes announced in last autumn's Budget and the broader destabilising effect of geopolitical uncertainty. 'Particularly worrying is the sustained impact of the Budget measures on employment. Higher staffing costs have exacerbated firms' existing concerns over payroll numbers in the current environment of weak demand, resulting in another month of sharply reduced headcounts in July. 'The weak growth trajectory and sustained culling of jobs will add to pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates again at its next policy meeting in August.' 04:43 PM BST FTSE closes strongly up The FTSE 100 closed strongly up today - by 0.9pc, according to preliminary figures - amid positivity about trade deals. BT was the biggest riser, surging more than 10pc after its Openreach division reported that it had lost fewer customers than analysts had forecast. Gaviscon maker Reckett soared a similar amount after saying its top consumer goods brands would grow faster than predicted. The FTSE 250 also rose strongly, up 0.6pc. That's all for this blog. Thanks for joining us and you can keep on reading about business and the global economy here. 04:28 PM BST TikTok 'is going to go dark' without deal, says Lutnick TikTok will have to stop operating in the United States if China does not approve a deal for the sale of its US business, the US Commerce secretary has said. Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the US must control the algorithm that makes the social media platform work. 'China can have a little piece or ByteDance, the current owner, can keep a little piece. But basically, Americans will have control. Americans will own the technology, and Americans will control the algorithm,' Mr Lutnick said. 'If that deal gets approved, by the Chinese, then that deal will happen. If they don't approve it, then TikTok is going to go dark, and those decisions are coming very soon.' A deal had been in the works this spring that would spin off TikTok's US operations into a new US-based firm, majority-owned and operated by American investors. This stalled after China indicated it would not approve it following Trump's announcements of steep tariffs on Chinese goods. 03:39 PM BST European stocks fall as traders debate rate cut timeline European stocks pared gains this afternoon after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. They had earlier hit a six-week high as investors were encouraged by talk of a possible EU-US trade agreement. Interest rate futures show traders have trimmed their expectations for a September interest rate cut. The yield on the 2-year German bond meanwhile spiked, which weighed on stocks. 'A September cut remains in play, but there's a real debate about the timeline,' said Madison Faller at JP Morgan Private Bank. 'Trade uncertainty lingers, but the major tail risks have faded as the rumoured 15pc US–EU tariff deal now looks more likely than the 30pc scenario.' The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up 0.1pc, while the German Dax is up less than 0.1pc and France's Cac 40 is down 0.6pc. 03:22 PM BST Brussels says free trade reliant on China becoming 'fair' China must become 'fair' in how it trades if the EU is to maintain its 'current level of openness', the European Commission president has said. Ursula von der Leyen told reporters: 'For trade to remain mutual beneficial it must become more balanced. 'Europe welcomes competition, we like competition, but competition has to be fair.' She added: 'We need to see progress on this issue [subsidied production] because without progress, it would be very difficult for the European Union to maintain its current level of openness. 'We have reached an inflection point. Rebalancing our bilateral relation is essential.' 02:56 PM BST Trump insists he wants Musk to thrive as Tesla shares plunge Donald Trump said he would not destroy Elon Musk's companies by taking away federal subsidies as Tesla shares plunged. The US president said he wants the billionaire tech-entrepreneur's businesses to thrive. 'Everyone is stating that I will destroy Elon's companies by taking away some, if not all, of the large scale subsidies he receives from the U.S. Government. This is not so!,' Trump said in a post on Truth Social. 'I want Elon, and all businesses within our Country, to THRIVE.' Tesla shares dropped 8pc in early trading in New York after Mr Musk warned of a 'rough quarters ahead' as the electric car maker reported sharply lower profits. 02:36 PM BST US stocks mixed as EU trade talks continue The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq opened higher as the EU and US continued their trade negotiations. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 9.7 points, or 0.2pc, to 6,368.6, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 63.8 points, or 0.3pc, to 21,083.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 233.9 points, or 0.5pc, at the open to 44,776.41 as it was dragged down by losses in shares of IBM, Honeywell and UnitedHealth. 02:25 PM BST Lagarde: ECB in wait-and-watch situation Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank was in a 'wait-and-watch situation' after deciding to keep interest rates on hold for the first time since May 2024. She said: 'We ourselves at the ECB have left our rates unchanged, and you could argue that we are on hold. 'We are in this wait-and-watch situation. And any monetary policy decision will for the future be decided on the basis of data, will be decided meeting by meeting, is not predetermined by any particular path. 'And I think the jury is out as to how quickly the uncertainty will be cleared under present circumstances.'Ms Lagarde also said that the uncertainty was affecting consumer and business behaviour. She added: 'The uncertainty in and of itself is also playing a role in relation to the level of risk that we see. 'It's trade-related, caused by tariff and non-tariff fears or expectations, and it's the overall uncertainty about the outcome which obviously induces different behaviour on the part of consumers and investors.' 02:14 PM BST Eurozone 'in good place' to deal with inflation, says Lagarde Christine Lagarde repeated the European Central Bank's view that the bank was 'in a good place' to deal with whatever comes next for inflation and the economy. 'Growth is developing mostly if not a little better than in line with our expectations,' she said. 'We are now confident that the inflationary shock of the past few years is now behind us, and our job now is to look at what's coming.' She said the ECB needed to 'wait' before moving again on interest rates. 'There is a lot of elements that will pan out in the next few months, and see what impact it will have on our economy.' 02:10 PM BST Lagarde: We do not target any exchange rate Markets have been wondering whether the ECB would start to worry about the strength of the euro, which is at its highest against the dollar since September 2021. But Ms Lagarde said the ECB would only consider the euro's movements in light of how they affected inflation. 'We do not target any exchange rate. We monitor the exchange rate because the exchange rate matters for our inflation forecast,' she told reporters in Frankfurt. 02:08 PM BST Lagarde urges EU and US to strike trade deal Christine Lagarde called on Washington and Brussels to strike a trade deal as soon as possible. The ECB president said: 'The sooner this trade uncertainty is resolved, I think we use the word resolved swiftly, the less uncertainty we will have to deal with. 'And that would be welcomed by any economic actors including ourselves.' She said that the ECB was for the moment sticking to its previous assumptions about what would happen, both in the talks and in the wider eurozone economy. 'We are attentive to where the negotiations are heading,' he said. 'We have a baseline on which we are basing our decision of today, which is our June baseline, which holds. That baseline is generally confirmed by all the recent data that we have received.' 02:06 PM BST Trump trade war could push down inflation, suggests Lagarde Christine Lagarde suggested inflation could cool more quickly than previously thought if Donald Trump's trade war means major manufacturers switch exports from the US to Europe. She said the pace of prices could fall if the euro remained strong or if countries with manufacturing overcapacity, like China, rerouted cheap goods from the US to the Continent. 'The outlook for inflation is more uncertain than usual as a result of the volatile global trade policy environment,' Ms Lagarde on the other hand, inflation could end up higher if 'a fragmentation of global supply chains pushed up import prices and added to capacity constraints in a domestic economy'. Big spending increases on defence and infrastructure could also boost inflation. 'We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,' Ms Lagarde said. 02:01 PM BST Stronger euro could lower inflation, says Lagarde Christine Lagarde said the strengthening of the euro could dampen inflation in the eurozone more than expected. The single currency has climbed 13pc against the dollar after Donald Trump's trade policies prompted a shift away from US assets. The European Central Bank president said most long-term inflation expectations were around 2pc. However she insisted that policymakers do not 'target any exchange rate' between the euro other currencies. She said ECB rate setters monitor the exhcnage rates as they matter for its forecasts. 01:55 PM BST Lagarde: Companies 'more hesitant to invest' The president of the European Central Bank said there were risks to economic growth in the eurozone as she explained why interest rates were held at 2pc. Christine Lagarde said the threat of tariffs, the stronger euro and 'persistent uncertainty' are 'making firms more hesitant to invest'. 01:40 PM BST Euro falls as interest rates held at 2pc The euro edged lower against the dollar after the European Central Bank held interest rates with a warning that 'the environment remains exceptionally uncertain'. The single currency dropped 0.2pc to $1.174 but was up 0.1pc against the pound at 86.7p. Carsten Brzeski of ING said: 'As ECB president Christine Lagarde had already stated at the last meeting in June: with a deposit rate of 2pc, headline inflation at 2pc and an inflation outlook that fulfills the old 'below but close to 2pc', the ECB can simply wait for who is holding the better trade cards and whether actual inflation will really behave as predicted.' Neil Birrell of Premier Miton said: 'With the likely impact of the probable tariffs being disinflationary in eurozone and the fiscal stimulus not being too inflationary given its nature, the ECB was under no real pressure to act on rates and therefore left them unchanged. 'However, unlike other major regions, it does have the luxury of being able to provide stimulus when required, with two rate cuts this year being a possibility if required, although no firm guidance is being provided, which isn't a surprise.' 01:18 PM BST ECB keeps interest rates on hold The European Central Bank has ended a run of seven straight interest-rate cuts, keeping its benchmark rate unchanged at 2pc. Inflation in the 20-country eurozone is at the bank's 2pc target, and the ECB said price pressures, including from rising wages, were still easing. Although the bloc's economy was 'resilient', the bank warned that 'the environment remains exceptionally uncertain, especially because of trade disputes'. Most economists expect the ECB will deliver one more cut when its rate-setters next meet in September. This would keep inflation from undershooting the target and help prop up a stuttering eurozone economy. US president Donald Trump has threatened a tariff on American imports from the EU of up to 30pc, although the latest reports suggest the levy could settle at 15pc. The eurozone economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.5pc in the first quarter, as exports surged to beat the tariffs. But household and government spending slowed, and the German GDP is flat-lining. 12:35 PM BST Reeves's tax rises are incompatible with growth, warns Lloyds boss Raising taxes will damage Britain's growth ambitions, the boss of Lloyds Bank has said. Charlie Nunn has warned Rachel Reeves that increasing levies further will damage the UK's competitiveness and undo the benefits of cutting red tape. Speaking on Thursday, Mr Nunn said that the reforms unveiled by the Chancellor in her Mansion House speech this month 'wouldn't be consistent with tax rises'. He said: 'It's important when looking at the competitiveness of the City of London that we have a competitive tax regime. We already have the highest tax regime in the financial services sector of any major economy.' 11:58 AM BST FTSE 100 hits new record high as rate cut expected The FTSE 100 climbed to a new record high as figures showing a weakening jobs market cemented the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month. The UK's flagship stock index gained as much as 1.1pc to a record 9,158.21, outpacing most major European markets, amid renewed hopes for lower borrowing costs. French and German indexes have pulled back earlier gains, which were fuelled by hopes of an EU-US trade deal. However, the FTSE 100 surged after Sir Keir Starmer and Narendra Modi signed a free-trade agreement between Britain and India at Chequers. The index has risen for six consecutive days, with the latest jump coming as closely watched PMI data showed companies cut jobs in July at the fastest pace since February, blaming Rachel Reeves's Budget tax raid on businesses. Bruna Skarica, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley, said: 'The economy is flatlining, employment is contracting, and while prices charged series ticked up, inflationary pressures still look more contained than earlier in the year. 'In a 'gradual and careful' manner, we expect the Bank of England will cut rates again in a fortnight.' 11:36 AM BST Modi: India and UK 'always play with a straight bat' Narendra Modi used a cricket metaphor to describe the UK-India relationship. Speaking alongside Sir Keir Starmer at Chequers, the Indian prime minister said that 'for both of us cricket is not just a game but a passion'. He said that sometimes there can be a diplomatic 'swing and a miss' but the two sides 'always play with a straight bat'. Mr Modi said India was 'committed to building a high scoring, solid partnership' with the UK. He made the comments as India and England are locked in a test cricket battle this summer. He concluded his remarks by extending an invite to Sir Keir to visit India 'very, very soon'. 11:22 AM BST Deal on workers will allow UK to benefit from India's 'skilled talent', says Modi Narendra Modi said the trade deal struck between India and the UK was the product of 'many years of hard work'. The prime minister of India thanked Sir Keir Starmer for the 'warm welcome and gracious hospitality' he had received at Chequers. Speaking through a translator, Mr Modi said the trade pact was a 'blueprint for our shared prosperity'. Mr Modi said a double contributions convention (DCC) deal which will make it easier for workers from each country to work temporarily in the other country would 'inject new energy into the service sectors of both countries'. He said it would 'promote ease of doing business' and the UK economy would benefit from India's 'skilled talent'. Opposition parties in the UK have claimed the DCC deal risked undercutting British workers. The Government rejected those claims as 'completely false'. 11:18 AM BST UK-India trade deal to cut Indian tariffs from 15pc to 3pc The UK-India trade deal is understood to be the largest of its kind for its economic impact on Britain. It will see tariffs on an array of British goods reduced from an average of 15pc to 3pc, with the aim of boosting the £11bn of imports into the south Asian nation. Whisky tariffs will be slashed in half and will fall further over successive years, while other industries including soft drinks, cars and cosmetics are also expected to see cheaper duties. The deal is expected to result in 2,200 jobs across the country and £6bn investment by British and Indian businesses. The UK and India are also bolstering co-operation on tackling corruption, fraud, organised crime and illegal migration, by sharing criminal records and other intelligence. But the deal has not given the UK as much access as it would have liked to India's financial and legal services industries. The UK-India trade agreement promises some benefits for the UK's financial services, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves understood to have pushed on behalf of the sector in discussions with her Indian counterpart. But more wide-ranging access was not agreed, and talks continue on a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting British investments in India and vice versa. The two nations also continue to discuss UK plans for a tax on high-carbon industries, which India believes could hit its imports unfairly. 11:11 AM BST Starmer takes credit for getting India trade deal over the line Sir Keir Starmer said the finalisation of the India trade deal would send a 'powerful message that Britain is open for business'. The Prime Minister said: 'The UK has been negotiating a deal like this for many years but it is this Government that got it done.' 'This is not the extent or the limit of our collaboration with India,' he added. Sir Keir said the two countries intended to 'strengthen our relationship further' in the coming years in areas like defence, climate and health. Trade negotiations started in 2022 under the previous Tory government. 11:09 AM BST Starmer: India trade deal will deliver £4.8bn boost to UK economy Sir Keir Starmer said the signing of the trade deal with India represented a 'landmark moment for both our countries'. Speaking alongside Narendra Modi at Chequers, the Prime Minister said the agreement was now 'signed, sealed and ready to be delivered'. The pact will be 'good for jobs, good for business' and will deliver a boost to the UK economy worth £4.8bn, he said. Sir Keir said the deal was the biggest agreed by the UK since Brexit. 11:07 AM BST Pound slips as bets grow on rate cuts The value of the pound has declined after weaker than expected private sector figures raised bets on the Bank of England cutting interest rates. Sterling dropped by 0.2pc against the dollar to $1.355 and fell 0.1pc versus the euro to €1.153 after closely watched PMI data showed Britain's jobs market is weakening. Private sector companies axed jobs in July at the fastest pace since February as they were hit by Rachel Reeves's tax raid. As a result, money markets indicate there is a 94pc chance that the Bank of England will reduce borrowing costs next month. James Smith, an economist at ING, said: 'April's hike in UK payroll taxes and the national living wage are squeezing hiring but keeping pressure on inflation. 'We think the former is a bigger concern than the latter, but for now the bar for faster Bank of England rate cuts appears high. We expect cuts in August and November.' 11:01 AM BST Pictured: Starmer and Modi hug as Indian PM arrives at Chequers 10:39 AM BST Starmer hails 'historic day' as he meets Modi Sir Keir Starmer said the signing of a new trade agreement between Britain and India was a 'historic day' as he welcomed Narendra Modi to Chequers. The Prime Minister said he and his Indian counterpart had agreed in the autumn to make a 'step change' in the relationship between the two countries. He said: 'So I'm really pleased and privileged to welcome you here today on what I consider to be a historic day for both of our countries, and the delivery of the commitment that we made to each other.' Mr Modi, speaking via a translator, described the UK and India as 'natural partners' and said the nations were 'writing a new chapter' in a shared history. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and his Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal then formally signed the trade agreement in the great hall of Chequers, the Prime Minister's country estate in Buckinghamshire. 10:29 AM BST Britain 'at risk of continued jobs falls' Britain is at 'risk of continued jobs falls', economists warned after closely watched data showed employers cutting staff numbers in response to Rachel Reeves's tax raid. The UK PMI jobs index fell to 45.1 from 46.6 in June, which was the weakest since February, as companies reported that tax hikes on payrolls were forcing them to lower their headcount. Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest drop 'breaks a fitful improvement in the PMI jobs balance since February'. He warned that PMI data has recently been prone to revisions which have improved the picture for the UK economy but said the latest figures were likely to 'justify a rate cut next month' by the Bank of England. He said: 'For now we are inclined to downplay the weakness, waiting for the final PMI at least, but the jobs balance poses a risk of continued jobs falls.' 10:20 AM BST 'Not a lot of cheer' in UK economic data 10:07 AM BST Bank of England 'reassured' to cut interest rates The Bank of England will be reassured that it can keep cutting interest rates once a quarter after closely watched data showed a slowndown in Britain's economy. Growth in the UK's private sector slowed down last month as the PMI reported a reading of 51 in July, sliding from a nine-month high of 52 in June. Any score above 50 indicates that activity is growing while any score below means it is contracting. Ashley Webb of Capital Economics said: 'July's flash PMIs provide further evidence that the upside risks to inflation have continued to fade and payroll employment is still falling.' He added: 'Overall, the further falls in payroll employment and slowing services price inflation should reassure the Bank of England that it can cut interest rates from 4.25pc now to 4pc in August and continue cutting rates at the current pace of one 25 basis points rate cut per quarter.' 09:57 AM BST Borrowing costs edge lower as economy weakens The cost of government borrowing edged lower as traders bet that weak economic data cemented the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month. The yield on two-year UK gilts – a benchmark for the cost of servicing the national debt – was down around two basis points to 3.85pc despite bond yields rising across the rest of Europe's major markets. 09:41 AM BST Job cuts accelerate as Reeves tax raid bites Britain's private sector companies cut jobs at the fastest pace since February, a closely watched survey showed, as Rachel Reeves's tax raid pushed up staffing costs. Employment in both the manufacturing and service sectors fell for the 10th consecutive month during July, the S&P Global Flash UK PMI showed. Bosses complained that increased payroll costs had forced them into redundancies and hiring freezes. In April, companies faced an increased in employer National Insurance contributions and the national minimum wage, which were announced in the Chancellor's Budget last year. 'The flash UK PMI survey for July shows the economy struggling to expand as we move into the second half of the year,' said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. 'The sluggish output growth reported in July reflected headwinds of deteriorating order books, subdued business confidence and rising costs, all of which were widely linked to the ongoing impact of the policy changes announced in last autumn's Budget and the broader destabilising effect of geopolitical uncertainty. 'Particularly worrying is the sustained impact of the Budget measures on employment. Higher staffing costs have exacerbated firms' existing concerns over payroll numbers in the current environment of weak demand, resulting in another month of sharply reduced headcounts in July. 'The weak growth trajectory and sustained culling of jobs will add to pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates again at its next policy meeting in August.' 09:30 AM BST Trump tariffs hit FTSE dividends UK-listed companies are expected to pay out £1.8bn less in dividends this year after Donald Trump's tariff policies hit the dollar. UK dividends fell by 1.4pc to £35.1bn in the second quarter of the year, a report by share registrar Computershare showed. It came as the value of the pound surged by 5pc against the dollar during the same period, impacting the results of many FTSE 100 companies, which measure their results in the US currency. President Trump's tariff policies have raised concerns about so-called US exceptionalism, prompting investors to shift assets away from the dollar to alternatives. As a result, Computershare forecast the UK would pay out dividends of £88.3bn this year, down 1.4pc. Chief executive Mark Cleland said: 'Overall, companies are cautious, tending not to announce significant increases in their dividends – indeed many have made cuts – and special dividends are in steep decline this year too.' 09:08 AM BST EU approves €93bn retaliation if US trade talks fail The European Union's member countries have approved counter-tariffs on €93bn (£80.7bn) of US goods. The tariffs could be imposed should the bloc fail to reach a trade deal with Washington, EU diplomats said. 09:05 AM BST Cars and healthcare to 'benefit most' from EU-US trade deal Carmakers, healthcare companies and consumer staples would benefit most from the potential EU-US trade deal, Deutsche Bank said. Analysts said the latest reports indicate there would be a 10pc tariff on top of the levies that existed before 'liberation day'. It said that if there were no tariffs on specific sectors, this 'would be even beyond our bullish base case', indicating it expects stocks would rally more sharly than expected. Strategist Maximilian Uleer said: 'We see consumer discretionary (foremost autos), healthcare and consumer staples as most hit from sector specific tariffs. 'Accordingly, we would expect the three sectors to benefit most.' 08:56 AM BST Banks help push European shares higher European shares rose to a six-week high amid optimism over a potential EU-US trade agreement. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.6pc to its highest since June 11. Germany's blue-chip Dax added 0.9pc and the UK's FTSE 100 advancing 0.6pc to an all-time peak, marking a sixth straight session of gains. A 2.3pc rise in banks led gains among European sectors, helped by Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. Deutsche Bank climbed 4.4pc after the German lender returned to a better-than-expected profit in the second quarter, while French bank BNP Paribas gained 1.9pc after reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in second-quarter profit. Roche gained 2pc after the Swiss drugmaker reported better-than-expected first-half operating profit. On the flip side, Nestle dropped 4.5pc after the Swiss consumer giant announced a strategic review of its vitamins business and posted first-half results. The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates steady at 2pc after seven consecutive cuts. 08:42 AM BST German factory output 'remains fragile' Germany's key manufacturing sector 'remains fragile', economists have warned after closely watched data showed factory output continued to shrink. The closely watched HCOB Germany Composite PMI showed factory production remained in contraction, where it has been for three years, although the pace of output has expanded for five months in a row. Its overall PMI reading – a tracker of private sector activity – declined unexpectedly to 50.3 in July from June's 50.4, although this shows activity overall remains in expansion territory. Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: 'The economic situation in the manufacturing sector remains fragile.' He added: 'Overall, we see increasing signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector, a picture that is confirmed by the latest investment initiative by key business leaders and supported by the measures taken by the federal government, including more favourable depreciation conditions for investments since July 1. 'Even higher US tariffs should not fundamentally change this outlook.' 08:31 AM BST French private sector hit for 11th straight month France's private sector economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of the third quarter as business activity shrankfor an eleventh successive month, a closely watched survey showed. French companies' expectations for the year ahead slumped sharply to their weakest since November last year, according to the HCOB Flash France PMI. Jonas Feldhusen of Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: 'France remains under considerable pressure, both economically andpolitically. GDP growth is unlikely to exceed the 1pc mark this year. At the same time, questions are mounting over whetherPrime Minister Bayrou can sustain his austerity course politically. Global trade upheaval is compounding the strain on France as a business location, though the recent deal between Washington and Tokyo may bring a potential EU–US agreement closer within reach.' 08:23 AM BST European stocks jump at the open European shares leapt higher at the open amid hopes for a trade deal between the EU and US. The Dax in Frankfurt surged by 0.9pc to 24,469.30 while the Cac 40 in Paris gained 0.4pc to 7,879.98. 08:10 AM BST Trump: Countries faces tariffs of 15pc to 50pc Donald Trump said countries in trade talks with the US would be hit with tariffs ranging from 15pc to 50pc. The US president told at AI summit in Washington: 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15pc and 50pc. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' 08:04 AM BST UK stocks jump amid US trade deal optimism The FTSE 100 rose at the start of trading amid optimism that the European Union and US are nearing a deal for 15pc tariffs on goods from the bloc. The UK's flagship stock index climbed 0.4pc to 9,088.41 while the mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 0.1pc to 22,042.59. 07:57 AM BST European Central Bank expected to hold interest rates The European Central Bank is expected to announce that it will keep interest rates on hold later today. The ECB has halved its policy rate from a record 4pc to 2pc in the space of just one year after taming a surge in prices that followed the end of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The hold would pause seven straight cuts as it waits for the fog surrounding Europe's trade relations with the United States to clear. With inflation now back at its 2pc goal and expected to stay there, eurozone central bankers are expected to instead observe what kind of tariffs Donald Trump imposes on the European Union. 07:43 AM BST Trump to visit Fed as he ramps up pressure for interest rate cuts Donald Trump will visit the US Federal Reserve later as he ramps up pressure on its chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. The US president has lambasted the head of the US central bank for being 'too late' to reduce borrowing costs, calling him a 'numbskull' on Tuesday and musing publicly about firing him. Mr Trump has said higher interest rates are costing the US economy billions of dollars. The US central bank held interest rates steady this year as policymakers monitored the effects of Mr Trump's tariff campaign on inflation. The White House announced the surprise visit from Mr Trump but gave no further details. It is not clear if Mr Trump will meet Mr Powell, who he nominated as Fed chair during his first term in office. It comes weeks after officials accused the Fed of mismanaging the $2.5bn renovation of two historic buildings in Washington, DC. 07:37 AM BST Brussels heads towards 15pc US tariff rate The European Union is on course to agree a trade deal resulting in a 15pc tariff on exports to the US, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan, officials said in a brief to EU envoys on the talks. Under the outlines of the potential deal, the 15pc rate could apply to sectors including cars and pharmaceuticals and would not be added to long-standing US duties, which average just under 5pc, Reuters reported. There could also be concessions for sectors like aircraft, lumber as well as some medicines and agricultural products, which would not face tariffs, the diplomats said. 07:31 AM BST Good morning European stocks were on track to surge at the start of trading amid hopes for an EU-US trade deal. France's Cac 40 was up 1.6pc in premarket trading while Germany's Dax gained 1.3pc after diplomatic sources told the Telegraph that Brussels is close to agreeing a trade deal that will slap 15pc tariffs on American imports of EU goods, similar to the deal with Japan. This would avoid a 30pc tariff threatened by Donald Trump in a letter to the European Union earlier this month. Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said: 'Indeed, if a 15pc total rate inclusive of existing tariffs is agreed as suggested, this would mark only a marginal increase compared to the 10pc additional tariffs that EU exports to the US have faced since Liberation Day but with certainty about the future.' EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič met with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday. Mr Trump said the US was in 'serious negotiations' with the EU and that 'we will let them pay a lower tariff' if the bloc opens up to American businesses. US treasury secretary Bessent said: 'We are making good progress with the EU.' Here is what you need to know: 5 things to start your day Tesla takes veiled swipe at Trump | Tesla announces sharply lower profits amid a political backlash British Army tests German-made kamikaze drones | Start-up has raised £9m and is looking to make the devices in UK after working with MoD The wealthy seaside idyll facing a tidal wave of taxes | Residents of 'Britain's Palm Springs' have seen their lives turned upside down by Reeves's raid BT poaches Virgin Media O2's finance chief | Telecoms giant to appoint Patricia Cobian after four years at rival Sam Ashworth-Hayes: China and America are now locked in a race for the next superweapon | As a new cold war beckons, nurturing homegrown tech and talent has scarcely been so critical What happened overnight Asian shares rose amid optimism that the US-Japan tariff agreement will be followed by more trade deals. Traders are speculating that the US may soon reach a trade agreement with the European Union, after the Trump administration struck deals with Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia earlier this week. European leaders were meeting with top Chinese officials in Beijing to discuss trade, climate change and global conflicts. But observers said solid agreements were unlikely. In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 surged nearly 2pc to 41,983.50. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4pc to 3,595.58 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.4pc to 25,631,08. South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.9pc to 3,211.21 after central bank data showed Thursday that the country's economy expanded at a 0.6pc annual rate in the last quarter, above expectations thanks to robust private consumption and exports. India's BSE Sensex edged 0.7pc higher to 82,726.64 and Australia's S&P ASX 200 slid 0.1pc to 8,729.20. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1pc, to 45,010.29, the S&P 500 rose 0.8pc, to 6,358.97, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6pc, to 21,020.02. In the bond market, the yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.388pc from 4.372pc late on Tuesday. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Low volatility, US dollar, tech 'super boom': Market Takeaways
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to take a look at the biggest takeaways from Friday's trading session: the trend of low volatility, the US dollar ( driving markets more than crypto or commodities, and the tech sector "super boom." To hear more about the tech super boom, watch Jared's full Stocks in Translation interview with Stock Trader's Almanac editor in chief Jeffrey Hirsch here. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. in this bull market, we are seeing a lot of low volatility days, and that's what we're seeing right here, melt up. And I will show you the week's action in the S&P 500 just to reiterate what we saw after the closing bell. And by the way, let's just start with the sector action. All 11 sectors for these five days in the green. Interestingly, healthcare led. You don't see that very often, at least not lately. Then materials, industrials, real estate, financials, so an interesting mix, mostly cyclicals in there, but also the one defensive, which is healthcare. Tech the laggard. And you got to think what's going to happen next week once we have all those big tech earnings, but uh, we'll leave that for next week. And let's just check out the S&P 500 over these five days, and there are fresh records every single day, up 1.5%, and I was sitting down with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac. We're going to listen to him in a couple of minutes here, but I just wanted to add, when we have a low volatility period, and it's been almost 20 days now, when you get a break to the upside out of that, you usually see more upside. So, but if you get a break to the downside, well, you usually get more downside. So, whenever we break this low volatility spread, that's going to be top of mind for me, and it's probably going to take you, uh, it's going to be an indication of where the next part of the rally or the decline goes. What has been the big driver of the markets outside of stocks? It has been the dollar over the last 24 hours or so, and this was really interesting because I was watching that press conference, it wasn't really a press conference. President Trump was walking around the Fed building with Chair Powell, and there's a little bit of drama there, but the dollar was heading higher after that. And that's just based on some of the headlines that came out of the meeting that Trump is not going to replace Powell, at least for the time being. And so we saw this, it kind of melted up overnight, and the net result is over the last two days it was up about 33 basis points. Doesn't seem like a lot, but in currency terms, it's not nothing. And I'm not ascribing all of the downside in commodities and crypto to it. And let me just put the futures board on there, but I think it was, uh, it was definitely a factor. And so here's our commodities board, more red than green, looks like softs leading the way down, OJ and also coffee down the most, but also silver, palladium, and then sugar. And then looking at crypto, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, but Bitcoin kind of slid down below some support. Let me put the year to date on this so I can chart this for you. Here we go. So we did have a little bit of a range here, a break of the range, but in the big picture, you're to date, just barely looks like a blip on your screen there. We keep hearing, Jared, of a skinny bull, a skinny bull with low breath. What do we mean by that? Well, let's take a look at the tech super boom and, or think about it. And here's where I want to call out that Jeffrey Hirsch clip that we have prepared, sat down with us on Stocks and Translation. He's, of course, the editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, so he's very much into seasonality, but separately, he also tracks some of these super cycles, and these are multi-year cycles, sometimes multi-decadal cycles that we see in some different markets, especially tech-driven. Let's take a listen. This is all part of our longer-term outlook of what we call the super boom, um, which is based upon, uh, you know, inflation and in the end of more like peace time, and also, uh, technology. Culturally, what I call a culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology. This is something that Yale discovered back in the '70s where we see these moves after these postwar periods of 500% or more. Um, we came out with this in 2010, this forecast for Dow 38,820 when it was about 10,000. All right, so getting, getting back to your question, what is, what's with this skinny bull market? It's true. We've had less than half of the S&P 500 stocks really participating year-to-date. You're not seeing, uh, you're not seeing these wild, uh, bullishly internal stats like 70% above their 200-day moving average. And then you take a look at the smaller caps, and here's what I have on the screen here. I'm comparing the MAG 7 to the IWM, which is Russell 2000 ETF since the election. So basically since November 5th. And the Russell 2000 here is break even. Uh, it's barely been able to hold its water here. And of course, there's a big decline and it declined more than MAG 7, but here's the MAG 7, they're only back up to their highs. And even the MAG 7 are kind of struggling it seems to carry the market. The MAG 7 have really become Nvidia and Microsoft. Those have been the biggest two drivers. And I want to show you something else here, and I'm going to wrap this all up after a few more charts. Here's Ark Innovation Fund versus IShares Russell 2000 ETF. And you can see it has just rocketed past these old highs here. And so, and then here's Bitcoin versus small caps. And this is up even more, 68% versus a break even. So where is the strength coming from? You're not seeing it in the middle of the market. You're seeing it from some of the big players and then a bunch of fringey places like innovation, like disruption, like crypto and all these other smaller place. And we also meme stocks. I mean, we just did an entire segment or you just did an entire segment on it. That's where we're seeing the money flow. So you put it all together, there's a vast swath of stocks that are not participating here, but things look good if you're in the right places or if you're just in the major indices and you don't mind watching things go up just a little bit every day. Finally, what's on the Jared Blikre radar for next week? You know, I am interested in some of these big tech earnings. I do want to see what happens with Apple. I'm not counting Apple out by any means. Some of the others as well, but I also want to focus on the dollar. I'm going to see if it continues its ascent because Monday morning, I'm going to do, I'm going to show, I'm going to do August seasonality and we can talk about this too. Dollar typically rises at this point in the year, so that could be a contrary trade. And then meme stocks and all this fringey stuff I've been talking about. That's what I'm going to watch. A lot on deck. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it. Later.
The Hill
32 minutes ago
- The Hill
Markets jump after Powell rebuffs Trump
The S&P 500 finished 0.4 percent up, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 208 points or 0.47 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained about a quarter of percent to close above 21,108. Top gainers on the day included Comfort Systems USA, Bel Fuse, Deckers Outdoor Corp. and IES Holdings, according to Morningstar. The bond market also cooled off Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield finished slightly down after trading higher during the day as did the 30-year. The bond market has exhibited major stresses this year through Trump's trade war. Outflows from long-dated U.S. public and private bond funds reached close to $11 billion in the second quarter, according to a June Financial Times analysis using EPFR data. Friday's gains followed a confrontation between Trump and Powell on Thursday in which Powell repelled an attack from Trump — this time not on social media but on television.
