Come to a Pakistandstill: India wields Indus Treaty as strategic weapon to isolate Pakistan over terror

Economic Times

01-05-2025

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com .)
India's strategic retaliatory measure against Pakistan, pledging to ring-fence it on multiple fronts for its active patronage and sustenance of terrorists, signals the return of an iron-fist approach. In this context, GoI's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 in Karachi with mediation by International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), is important.In the original treaty, the term 'eastern rivers' meant Sutlej, Beas and Ravi taken together, while 'western rivers' were to encompass Indus, Jhelum and Chenab taken together, along with their tributaries. All the waters of the eastern rivers were marked as 'shall be available for the unrestricted use of India, except as otherwise expressly provided'.Pakistan was bestowed rights to receive for unrestricted use all those waters of the western rivers that India was under obligation to let flow under the extant provisions. Thus, by design, India was magnanimous in providing water to Pakistan.India has always helped nations in the neighbourhood - Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh. This benevolence yielded results for the economic renaissance of these countries. But Pakistan was the odd one out, digging a deep trench for itself even as India tried its best to engage with it for peace and prosperity.The benevolent, tactical 'Sada-e-Sarhad' bus diplomacy of the Vajpayee government, initiating a passage of people's movement through borders, promising to foster abundant trade and commerce, never fructified. Successive military rules, directly or by proxy, orchestrating anti- India moves, ensured only frosty results.Such non-economic intervention has ensured that Pakistan GDP has grown at a snail's pace, flip-flopping from $339 bn in FY17 to $373 bn in FY24. Average growth comes to less than 1.5% in the intermittent period, even as average inflation since FY21 stands at 16.8% with red-hot high price prints of 29.2% and 23.4% in FY23 and FY24, respectively. The Pakistani rupee, mirroring internal fractures of a failed state, depreciated by 100% between September 2021 and August 2023 in a vicious cycle. While both food and energy have retraced in recent days, there are apparently fault lines in the calculation methodology, as share of food and beverages comes at just 36% in its CPI basket.Unsurprisingly, Pakistan stands 13th in terms of countries with highest defence spending as percentage of GDP. Market capitalisation of the KSE-100-led Pakistan Stock Exchange is only 15% of total GDP, undermining investors' lack of confidence even as KSE-100 has remained flat YTD.The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) report puts the rural population percentage at about 63% for the fifth most-populous country on the planet, its current population estimated to be more than 25 cr. Livelihoods of Pakistan's rural population are mainly agriculture-based, which, in turn, is dependent chiefly on irrigation. This, even as close to 40% of the population lives BPL.There lies the economic significance of IWT, as Punjab remains the largest economy in Pakistan, contributing close to 60% in national output. Sindh, second-largest province in terms of population and GDP, factors close to 25%. Share of agriculture in GDP stood at 24% in 2024, falling from a high of 30.6% in 2000-01. But it continues to shoulder around two- third of the population, directly or indirectly. Two of Pakistan's largest exports, textiles and basmati rice, depend on irrigation dynamics even as trade deficit threatens to vault in a volatile tariff- induced environment.The road to Brussels goes through Rome, is a well-accepted preamble, cementing the belief that long-term peace comes at the cost of innumerable sacrifices. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrote in the visitor's book at Lahore's Minar-e-Pakistan in 1999 that a 'stable, secure and prosperous Pakistan is in India's interest. Let no one in Pakistan be in doubt. India sincerely wishes Pakistan well,' Islamabad mistook it as Indian weakness, surreptitiously preparing to capture Kargil.It's time the people of Pakistan realise that India can be a friendly neighbour. Or be made to revisit 1971. The choice is completely in their hands. As for agencies like IMF, which have frequently bailed out Pakistan, they would do well to introspect if common, scarce global resources should be put in the hands of a rogue nation on the brink of anarchy.Ghosh is member, 16th Finance Commission, and group chief economic adviser, SBI , and Kumar is AGM, SBI