Can PayPal Stock Hit $125 in 2025?
Digital payment giant PayPal's (PYPL) story has been anything but smooth. After soaring in 2020 and carrying the momentum into early 2021, PYPL stock stumbled, ending three consecutive years in the red. While 2024 brought a much-needed rebound, 2025 has seen shares slip once again. Much of PayPal's decline can be traced to rising competition.
Newer, faster fintech rivals have outpaced the company with sleeker, more intuitive payment solutions. Still, PayPal isn't going down without a fight. In response, PayPal brought in CEO Alex Chriss in 2023 to reset its strategy. Under his leadership, the company has launched features like one-click and express checkout while sharpening its focus on profitable growth and operational efficiency.
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PayPal's ever-expanding partner network — featuring giants such as Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (META) — also remains a powerful asset. With Wall Street's highest target pegged at $125 for the stock, can PayPal rally hard enough to hit that mark before the year wraps?
PayPal runs a global technology platform that connects merchants and consumers through a dynamic two-sided network. Whether shopping online or in-person, users can pay, get paid, transfer, or withdraw funds using a wide range of options, including bank accounts and cards, PayPal and Venmo balances, cryptocurrency, and more — making digital payments seamless and accessible worldwide.
With its market capitalization currently hovering around $71 billion, PayPal remains a major player in the fintech space. However, its stock performance tells a different story. Delivering a 25% return over the past one year, the stock has taken a 14% hit so far in 2025, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) by a wide margin, with the benchmark up 4.4% year-to-date (YTD). PYPL stock touched a YTD high of $93.25 in January but has since fallen more than 21% from that peak.
Considering its sluggish price action, PayPal now appears to be a potential value play. The stock is trading at just 14 times forward earnings and 2.25 times sales, which is significantly below its five-year averages. For investors hunting for discounted fintech names, PayPal's current valuation could offer an attractive entry point.
PayPal delivered its fiscal 2025 first-quarter earnings on April 29. The results were a mixed bag, showing a slight revenue miss but a strong profit beat. Sales rose just 1% year-over-year (YOY) to $7.8 billion, falling short of expectations. However, the company made it clear this was by design. PayPal emphasized its strategic pivot toward profitability, deliberately phasing out lower-margin revenue streams.
That shift paid off on the bottom line. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.33, up 23% from a year ago and beating Wall Street estimates by an impressive 15.7% margin. PayPal continued to strengthen its financial footing in Q1, with transaction margin dollars — the company's core profitability metric — rising 7% to $3.7 billion.
Active accounts grew 2% YOY to reach 436 million, reflecting steady user engagement. Backed by a strong balance sheet with $15.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, PayPal also returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases, underscoring its commitment to capital returns. Reflecting on the Q1 performance, Chriss noted, 'PayPal had a great start to the year and our strategy is working. This is our fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth with progress across branded checkout, PSP, omnichannel, and Venmo.'
Looking ahead, PayPal offered a dose of optimism with strong Q2 guidance, projecting adjusted EPS between $1.29 and $1.31, signaling continued momentum on the profitability front. For the full year, the company took a more cautious stance. Citing ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty, PayPal reaffirmed its earlier guidance, expecting full-year EPS to land between $4.95 and $5.10.
By comparison, analysts tracking PayPal project the company's profit to grow 9.3% annually to $5.08 per share in fiscal 2025, followed by an even stronger 11% rise to $5.64 in fiscal 2026.
Overall, Wall Street sentiment toward PYPL stock remains cautiously upbeat, with analysts giving it a consensus 'Moderate Buy' rating. Of the 44 analysts offering recommendations, 16 give it a solid 'Strong Buy" rating, two suggest a 'Moderate Buy,' 22 give a 'Hold,' and the remaining four advocate for a 'Strong Sell" rating.
PYPL stock's average analyst price target of $79.81 indicates 9% potential upside. But the Street-high target of $125 tells a more bullish story, implying a potential rally of 70% if the company's turnaround strategy hits its stride.
On the date of publication, Anushka Mukherji did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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