Bolivia's presidential election faces growing uncertainty

Miami Herald

18-06-2025

June 18 (UPI) -- Political and social tensions in Bolivia are intensifying two months ahead of the general elections Aug. 17, raising concerns the vote could be marred by violence, deep polarization and institutional instability.
The unrest began after Bolivia's Constitutional Court barred former President Evo Morales from running again, citing term limits. His supporters responded with protests and roadblocks across several regions.
The protests have left six people dead, including police officers and farmers. Nearly two weeks of roadblocks and military deployments in key areas have drawn comparisons to some of Bolivia's darkest periods of political unrest.
Óscar Hassenteufel, president of Bolivia's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, or TSE, warned in a recent news conference that "dark forces" are trying to prevent the election from taking place. He said public distrust is rising as electoral institutions may not be strong enough to withstand pressure in an increasingly polarized climate.
Despite the TSE's assurances that the election date remains set after talks with all three branches of government, public uncertainty persists.
The absence of a preclusion law -- which would block indefinite legal challenges to the electoral process -- has raised concerns. The TSE has warned that without such legislation, the election could be suspended or annulled.
"The country is facing various challenges, and evidently, today our country's democracy is at risk," President Luis Arce said at a news conference in Santa Cruz. "Democracy must win. Social peace must win in our country against all destabilizing attempts to stop the election."
Bolivia is grappling with a deepening economic crisis. Annual inflation was 18.46% in May, the highest level since 2008. Prices for basic goods, such as beef and chicken, have climbed nearly 24% over the past year. Protests over fuel and currency shortages have further intensified social unrest.
A joint report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program warned that acute food insecurity in Bolivia is expected to worsen in the coming months, driven by high inflation and declining foreign reserves.
"This is expected to further weaken import capacity and household purchasing power, limiting access to food," the report said. It also warned that fuel shortages could disrupt agricultural activity and further reduce corn production, after already below-average harvest in 2024.
According to the U.N. report, as of October 2024, 2.2 million Bolivians -- about 19% of the population -- were experiencing acute food insecurity.
Any delay in the elections or attempt at electoral fraud could trigger widespread unrest in a country already strained by economic crisis and public distrust, political analyst Franklin Pareja said in an interview with eju.tv radio.
Pareja said rising frustration over the economic crisis has created strong expectations around the election, which many see as a potential turning point for the country.
"There is deep concern that everything in Bolivia is at risk and nothing is guaranteed," he said.
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