
Global shares rise as US consumer holds up, yen weak ahead of Japan vote
Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and jobless claims suggesting modest improvement in economic activity helped to push the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to close at record highs on Thursday.
Asian and European shares followed suit with gains on Friday, with Asian shares outside Japan up 0.9 per cent, while European stocks were last up 0.4 per cent. Wall Street futures were also up around 0.1 per cent.
A solid start to earnings season in the U.S. - with companies including streaming giant Netflix beating forecasts - was also supporting investor confidence, said Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham.
"We're pretty constructive on the (U.S.) macro backdrop... We do see some scope for slowing growth, but not for anything material and that's giving the markets quite a nice bounce," Osman said, adding the potential full impact of U.S. tariffs was still in focus.
Alphabet and Tesla are among the companies reporting half-year results next week, which will further test the market mood.
The dollar was broadly flat against the yen at 148.65 but was down nearly 1 per cent this week after polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house election on Sunday.
Data on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in June due to temporary cuts in utility bills but stayed above the central bank's 2 per cent target. The rising cost of living, including the soaring price of rice, is among the reasons for Ishiba's declining popularity.
"If PM Ishiba decides to resign on an election loss, USDJPY could easily break above 149.7 as it would usher in an initial period of political turbulence," said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities.
"JPY could reverse the recent dramatic weakness if the ruling coalition wins and is able to make swift progress on a trade deal with Trump."
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1 per cent to 98.365, but was heading for a second successive weekly gain, bouncing from a 3-1/2 year low hit over two weeks ago.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month, though most officials who have spoken publicly have signalled no desire to move.
Treasury yields were slightly lower. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped 2 basis points to 4.44 per cent, two-year yields also edged 2 bps lower to 3.90 per cent.
Oil prices extended gains on Friday, after drone strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields fuelled supply concerns.

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Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa to hold more trade talks in US next week
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CNA
18 hours ago
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Japan's minority government faces election snub as economic storm brews
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CNA
18 hours ago
- CNA
'Clumsy' Japanese PM Ishiba's future in the balance
TOKYO: Shigeru Ishiba likes the nitty gritty of policy, cigarettes and making models, but his dream job as Japanese prime minister could go up in smoke this weekend. Opinion polls suggest that Ishiba's coalition could lose its majority in upper house elections on Sunday (Jul 20), a result that might push him to resign. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, but whether anyone wants to replace Ishiba is another matter. "I wonder who else wants the job," Masahisa Endo, politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP. Ishiba, 68, a self-confessed defence "geek", is the son of a regional governor and is from Japan's small Christian minority. He won the party leadership in September, on his fifth try, to become the LDP's 10th separate prime minister since 2000, all of them men. Ishiba pledged to "create a new Japan" and revitalise depressed rural regions, and to address the "quiet emergency" of Japan's shrinking population. He immediately called lower house elections for October but that backfired spectactularly, with the LDP suffering its worst result in 15 years. That robbed the LDP and its coalition party Komeito of their majority, forcing them to bargain with opposition parties to pass legislation. Ishiba's policies on bringing down inflation and spurring growth have "flip-flopped" as a result, said Stefan Angrick at Moody's Analytics. "Ishiba's government has boxed itself in, promising only some belated and half-hearted financial support that will do little to improve the demand outlook," Angrick said. The government's popularity ratings have plummeted, with voters angry about price rises, especially for rice that is twice as expensive as a year ago. CLUMSY WAYS Ishiba, the father of two daughters, also missed a chance to appear more modern by appointing only two women to his cabinet, down from five under predecessor Fumio Kishida. Ishiba's sometimes clumsy ways - ranging from the less-than-perfectly tidy arrangement of his tuxedo to his table manners - have also been rich fodder for social media memes. He drew ridicule after being snapped apparently napping in parliament and for failing to stand up to greet other world leaders at a gathering in South America. Worse was a video that emerged of Ishiba eating an onigiri rice ball - a popular snack - whole and munching on it without closing his mouth. "He eats like a three-year-old," one user said on social media platform X. "How could he have risen to the top with these manners?" asked another. NO DEAL A major challenge has been dealing with US President Donald Trump, who has imposed tariffs on Japanese cars, steel and aluminium. Further levies of 25 per cent on other Japanese imports will come into force on Aug 1 if there is no trade agreement. Ishiba secured an early invitation to the White House in February and has sent his tariffs envoy to Washington seven times, but there has been no deal yet. Then-premier Shinzo Abe - dubbed a "Trump whisperer" - fared better during Trump's first term, managing to shield Japan from any tariffs. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, gifted Trump a gold-coloured golf club and was a frequent visitor to see the US president.