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Stocks Careening Toward a Tough August: 3-Minute MLIV

Stocks Careening Toward a Tough August: 3-Minute MLIV

Bloomberg3 days ago
Tom Mackenzie, Lizzy Burden and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)
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China Ditches U.S. LNG as Russian Pipelines and Domestic Output Surge
China Ditches U.S. LNG as Russian Pipelines and Domestic Output Surge

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

China Ditches U.S. LNG as Russian Pipelines and Domestic Output Surge

Over the past couple of years, China has become the world's largest importer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), surpassing Japan as the top buyer of super-chilled gas since 2021. China's surging LNG imports have been shaping Asian energy flows, with the country accounting for more than 40% of the continent's total LNG import growth. However, China's dominance in LNG markets now appears in jeopardy, and we are seeing a prolonged decline in imports. According to ship-tracking data by Kpler via Bloomberg, China's LNG imports are estimated to have clocked in at 5 million metric tons in June 2025, good for a hefty 12% year-on-year decline, marking the eighth straight month of declines. In the first four months of the year, China's LNG imports slumped to 20 million tons, a sharp fall from 29 million tons from last year's comparable period. Full-year imports for the current year are now expected to fall 6–11% to 76.65 million metric tons. This trend appears to defy earlier projections for China's LNG demand to continue growing through 2035. This, coupled with ongoing shifts in the country's oil import dynamics, signals major changes in global energy flows. In 2023, China averaged 9.5 billion cubic feet per day in LNG imports, with Australia supplying 34% of total imports; Qatar 23%, Russia 11% and Malaysia 10%. There are several factors driving this unexpected trend. First off, China has seen a significant increase in pipeline imports from Russia and Central Asia, as well as a 6% increase in domestic gas production, both lowering LNG demand. Pipeline gas accounted for 41% of China's 16.0 Bcf/d natural gas imports in 2023, with Russia (via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline), Turkmenistan and Myanmar supplying the is actively increasing its pipeline gas exports to China as part of its strategy to reorient its energy exports away from Europe and towards Asia, with China as the leading target. Specifically, the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline is expected to reach its full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2025, and a new pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, is planned to further increase exports to China by an additional 50 bcm per year. Russia is also exploring other potential pipeline routes to China, including one that would transit through Kazakhstan. This could further expand export capacity and provide alternative routes to diversify supply. Second, trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have forced China to halt U.S. LNG imports since March 2025 after Trump slapped a punitive 125% tariff on its key trading partner. Consequently, China redirected purchases to Asian suppliers like Qatar and Indonesia. Third, weak industrial demand due to slowing growth by China's industrial and chemical sectors has taken a toll on gas demand. These pivotal sectors are experiencing a slowdown due to a combination of factors including a broader economic slowdown, a struggling real estate market, weaker global demand for exports, and reduced foreign investments. To exacerbate matters, China's GDP growth is projected to slow down in the coming years despite showing resilience against U.S. tariffs, with forecasts suggesting growth below the official target and a further easing in 2026. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has projected that China's economic growth will moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Finally, a milder winter has lowered demand for residential heating particularly in northern China. China's falling LNG imports are having ripple effects across global energy markets. Weakening demand is freeing up LNG volumes, easing supply pressure to other Asian countries including Japan and India as well as Europe. Falling Chinese demand is also depressing Asian spot LNG prices, with prices dropping to $11/MMbtu in May 2025 from a February peak of $16.50/MMBtu. Chinese buyers tend to turn to pipeline gas and domestic production whenever Asian gas prices exceed $10/MMBtu. Finally, the halt of U.S. LNG exports to China threatens long-term contracts worth 20 million tons per year with U.S. suppliers. Chinese LNG buyers are now reselling U.S. cargoes to Europe and also seeking new deals with Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern suppliers, undermining U.S. export growth. Meanwhile, China's pivotal crude oil sector is facing serious headwinds, too. Last year, China experienced a decline in transportation fuel demand, marking a significant shift away from the historical trend of increasing demand. China's consumption of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel in 2024 was ~8.1 million barrels per day, 2.5% below 2021 levels and just above 2019 levels. This decline was primarily driven by a combination of factors including a shift towards electric vehicles, a slowdown in the construction sector, and a weakening in consumer spending. Indeed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that combustion uses of petroleum fuel in China has already plateaued. By Alex Kimani for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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