What Is the ‘New Middle East' ... the Real One This Time

Asharq Al-Awsat

03-06-2025

There is hardly a journalist or political analyst, or even an amateur posing as either, in the Arab world who hasn't, at some point over the past decades, written or spoken at length about the 'New Middle East.' And yet, the Middle East we see today is something altogether different from what we were told to expect, both in substance and in the circumstances surrounding it.
Our region has become, much like our lives and our socio-political imaginaries, untethered from familiar coordinates. One could even say it is now open to all possibilities. To be clear, this is not a veiled swipe at our political elites, nor at the political consciousness of our peoples, or their capacity to learn from past mistakes and, from there, to choose a better path forward.
Not in the slightest.
Today, we, alongside the most politically sophisticated and institutionally entrenched societies on earth, are in the same boat.
We are all grappling with similar complexities, and facing threats that do not discriminate by region or political tradition. There is no longer any guarantee that words like 'democracy' or 'good governance,' even in countries with rooted democratic traditions, will mean much if those terms are voided. Thus, such concepts will not, on their own, save societies from the turmoil they now face, nor the turmoil we will face.
Just yesterday, I heard a leading expert say that the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the basic, everyday infrastructures of human life is now only a few months away.
That's on the technological front. On the political front, Portugal has just joined a growing list of European countries betting, through the ballot box, on the radical far right. In the latest snap election, the populist, quasi-fascist Chega party surged to second place, just behind the center-right Democratic Alliance, and ahead of the formerly ruling Socialist Party.
Chega's recent rise in Portugal will embolden the broader spread of neo-fascist populists across Western Europe: the likes of the National Rally in France, Vox in Spain, Brothers of Italy, the Reform Party in the UK, the Freedom Party in the Netherlands, and Alternative for Germany (AfD). But this is no longer a Western European problem. Far-right populism is now well entrenched in countries across Northern and Eastern Europe, most prominently Hungary.
Of course, of all Western democracies, the United States presents the bleakest example. A historical rupture with few parallels anywhere else is underway in Washington, and it threatens not only the two-party system that has long been the pillar of American representative politics, but also the very principle of the separation of powers.
The same single popular and populist political movement has taken control of all three branches of government: the executive, legislative, and judicial. To this, we can add the unofficial 'fourth branch:' the media. While it had once largely free of partisanship, the media has now become a central weapon in the ruling movement's arsenal thanks to the rise of new media: online platforms, artificial intelligence, and the oligarch-owned newspapers and television networks, not to mention the suspension of public funding for state media.
There is no doubt that the institutions owned by figures like Rupert Murdoch (Fox News), Elon Musk (X), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), and Jeff Bezos (The Washington Post) are shaping what may become America's new (and perhaps enduring) political culture. It speaks volumes that nearly every one of the 30 members of President Donald Trump's administration was in Fox News's orbit.
Meanwhile, the world apprehensively follows the sweeping shifts underway in the US landscape. Economic wars are no trivial matter, nor is the fact that the man in the White House has upended notions of who is a US ally or an enemy and who its partners or competitors are.
However, in light of the rapid and ongoing developments, it has become increasingly difficult for any single country to directly influence the global economic players or military and political forces. As a result, everyone is watching, hoping, anticipating - quietly, of course - either searching for alternatives or trying to limit the damage.
As for the Middle East and the Arab world, we may be faced with even graver challenges than others amid Washington's shifting definitions of its 'allies' and 'enemies.'
The United States is a global power with interests and priorities everywhere. Accordingly, there is little room for sentimentality. There are no permanent interests in a world whose rules are being redefined and evolving.
In our region, Washington maintains a strong strategic relationship with Israel, which is widely regarded as the most influential foreign actor in the halls of American politics. Its lobbying groups fund many key figures in Congress and exert a lot of political influence.
Then there is Türkiye, a pivotal NATO member and a regional power with immense religious, ethnic, and geographic clout, allowing it to shape US decisions. And last but not least, Iran also has a significant say in American policy circles. Like Türkiye, it is seen as a crucial link in the Middle Eastern chain. In every round, experience suggests, Washington's goal is to win over Iran, not destroy it.
In this landscape of uncertainty and rapid change, one must ask: Are we, as Arabs, still capable of influencing the regional climate and shaping the priorities of major players?