Out-of-control spacecraft set to crash into Earth today - where will it hit?
A Soviet satellite once bound for Venus is about to crash back down to earth after more than half a century in space.
The Kosmos 482 Descent Craft has been floating around in outer space for more than 50 years, stuck in Earth's orbit.
It's estimated the craft will descend through the atmosphere at some point between May 8 and 12 – and the potential area it could hit when it crash lands is huge.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, has predicted its return and currently believes it will re-enter the atmosphere on Saturday, May 10 – though there is a 20-hour margin of error on either side of this.
And due to the craft being a lander designed to survive passing through Venus's atmosphere, Marco predicts it could survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere.
Whether it survives the impact on Earth's surface remains to be seen – he warns the parachute system may not work after spending 53 years in orbit.
Discussing the risks associated with the craft's re-entry, Marco said: 'The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero: with a mass of just under 500kg and 1metre (3ft) size, risks are somewhat similar to that of a meteorite impact.
'A re-entry analysis to ground level suggests an impact speed (after atmospheric deceleration) of about 65-70metres per second (150mph), assuming the re-entering lander did not break up or extensively ablate during re-entry.'
The potential area where the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could land back on Earth is absolutely huge.
The craft is predicted to land anywhere between 52° north and 52° south – which covers the entirety of Africa, South America, Asia, Australia, and huge swathes of Europe and North America.
However, the potential crash zone also includes huge swathes of ocean, meaning the odds of the craft hitting a populated area are very slim.
The Kosmos 482 Descent Craft was launched on March 31, 1972, and soon after it broke into several pieces.
The craft got stuck in an elliptical orbit around Earth due to a failure in the upper stage of the rocket that launched it into space in the first place.
Its main body re-entered the atmosphere on May 5, 1981, and the rest of the craft has been orbiting the planet ever since.
If you want to keep an eye on the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, there's a live tracking website watching its movements.
At the time of writing it was floating above the Crozet Islands, a small archipelago in the Indian Ocean, south east of the most southerly point of South Africa.
There are roughly 35,000 pieces of space debris that are more than 10cm in size being tracked by experts at the moment, with about 10,000 active satellites in orbit.
Objects caught in Earth's gravity undergo a process called orbital decay, which means they get closer and closer to the planet as time goes on until eventually falling back through the atmosphere. More Trending
Most of the time, these pieces of debris either burn up in the atmosphere or, if they survive, land in the sea or unpopulated areas.
According to the European Space Agency, about 160 large objects made uncontrolled re-entries in 2021.
And the US Federal Aviation Administration warned in 2023 that by 2035, if satellite growth continues, there could be 28,000 objects re-entering the atmosphere each year – which could be expected to kill or injure someone every two years.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
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Scottish Sun
21-06-2025
- Scottish Sun
Inside dystopian town blitzed by 450 nukes plagued by suicides & cancer-riddled families issued ‘radiation passports'
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) GROWING up in the most nuked place on Earth, Maira Abenova has helplessly watched as cancer spread through her family. After years of living near the Semipalatinsk Test Site, she told The Sun how the devastating impact of the radiation "did not spare any family". Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 14 The Semipalatinsk Test Site is the most nuked place on earth Credit: Getty - Contributor 14 The Semipalatinsk region in eastern Kazakhstan was a nuclear test site for the Soviet Union Credit: AFP - Getty 14 The Cold War relic sits near the border with modern day Russia Credit: Corbis Historical - Getty 14 Lake Shagan, also called the 'Atomic Lake', highlighted, is an offshoot of the Shagan River Credit: Wikipedia 14 Known as the Polygon, the 7,000 square mile nuclear testing site in north east Kazakhstan was nuked by hellish bombs from 1949 to 1989. 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Now a mum and grandma, Maira was raised in the neighbouring high-risk town of Semipalatinsk, which is by the Russian border and is today known as Semey. She is also the founder an advocacy group for victims of the tests called Committee Polygon 21. Maira detailed the tragic consequences of Semipalatinsk Test Site which have scarred her own life. Inside 'world's most dangerous town' Wittenoom where just breathing could kill you "In 1971, before turning 60, my mother died of esophageal cancer," she said. "At that time, we could not know the cause of this disease." After losing her mum, her sister passed away in 2013, nearly 25 years after the last recorded nuclear test. "In 2013, literally a month after surgery, my older sister passed away from breast cancer," Maira explained. Her husband was the next loved one to die as a result of the radioactive fallout. She said: "My husband was diagnosed with stomach cancer - he lived in agony for only a year and a half before he passed away." Maira continued: "Just a few months after my husband's funeral, my brother was diagnosed with lung cancer. "He survived only three months." The devastating consequences of Semipalatinsk Test Site then caught up with Maira herself. "Last autumn, I was diagnosed with the same disease," she said. "I had an operation, but I don't know how much time I have left. "Our medical system offers little hope - not because we lack good doctors, but because the healthcare system, especially in our region, is in a deeply deplorable state." 14 Maira Abenova told The Sun what it was like growing up in Semipalatinsk 14 Image of the Chagan nuclear test, which created the 'Atomic Lake' on January 15, 1965 Credit: Wikipedia 14 It features a notorious 'Atomic Lake' Credit: WIKIMEDIA 14 She added: "The worst thing is when doctors diagnose cancer. It's like a death sentence. "A sentence of a painful death. Without proper help and treatment." 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Scottish Sun
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- Scottish Sun
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