The welfare crisis no one is talking about
This might speak well of the Caledonian heart, but it doesn't say much for the brain. As the frankly terrifying projections around future spending and demand pile up, one is left wondering whether the nation's policymakers are ignorant, irresponsible or just plain daft. Whatever upset Rachel Reeves this week – bad personal news, rows with colleagues, a weakening PM, the hole blown in her fiscal plans – it was possible to feel a tightening of the throat at the likely consequences for Scotland's future.
The welfare story north of the border has for years been one of steady expansion, even as economic growth has remained insipid and public services have become an ever-greater burden on the finances. Universal benefits wherever you look, top-ups to 'stingy' Westminster handouts, the Child Payment, the Baby Box, and on it goes. If something twitches in Scotland, the state is waiting to write it a cheque.
This week, as all hell was breaking loose in the UK Government, Holyrood's public audit committee was warning that the welfare bill in Scotland is set to increase from £6.8 billion in 2025/26 to £9.4 billion in 2030/31. With considerable understatement, the committee said that this presents 'a risk to the Scottish Government's financial position'. This is hardly the first alarm of its kind to be rung: by now we should be deafened by the clanging. Both the Scottish Fiscal Commission and Audit Scotland have repeatedly produced reports stating that the trajectory of the SNP's spending plans is unsustainable. Its own civil service has said the same. But the governing party has barely wavered. There is an intention to cut the public sector workforce by 0.5 per cent every year, to trim back the cost of quangos, and to reduce the state's property footprint, all of which will barely touch the sides of the problem.
It was only last year that Shona Robison, the Scottish Finance Secretary, announced emergency spending controls due to her government's commitment to inflation-busting public sector pay deals and other expensive outlays. Any extra spending would only be allowed if it was 'truly essential or unavoidable'. The strictures included a ban on ministers expensing biscuits for meetings.
Look after the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves? That's not how government works, and certainly not in the current straitened climate. The scale of the rethink required is too large, too complete. Yet there is no chance this SNP administration – or, arguably, one of any stripe – is going to grasp that particular thistle.
And so, on we go, up and up, more and more. The Personal Independence Payment (PIP) which has caused so much trouble at Westminster is administered as the Adult Disability Payment (ADP) in Scotland. Around 10 per cent of the adult population currently claims it – 475,000 people. That figure is soaring (as it has been in the south), rising by 50 per cent in three years.
Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe
It is obvious that PIP and ADP need fixed, that a fair number of recipients could be in work of some kind, which would be good for them and good for the economy. Unfortunately, Rachel Reeves's decision to use a chainsaw rather than a smart, busy scalpel has surely killed, for the foreseeable future, the argument around reform. The SNP will breathe a sigh of relief: never mind the horrible data. If they're not doing it, why should we?
And yet the scary numbers keep coming. The Nats already spend a billion pounds more on welfare than the block grant received from London. That figure will be £2bn by the end of the 2020s. Scotland's population is aging fast, and over the coming decades will face the twin problem of a rising number of pensioners and a shrinking workforce able to pay for them. The NHS is going to eat up ever more of the devolved government's budget – it's projected to take up half of the total by 2075. Social care, wholly unaddressed, threatens to be ruinously expensive.
Holyrood taxes are as high as they can reasonably go – and will anyway have to be reworked if Reeves bumps them up at a UK level in her Budget. Economic growth continues to be elusive, and this soft-left SNP crew are hardly chasing it. How, then, will the books be balanced? Where will the extra funds required for Scotland's heroic commitments to welfare and the NHS come from? Do we need to crash the national economy before we are willing to get real about this stuff?
The prospect of a serious conversation about welfare reform north of the border – serious reform of anything, really – about hard choices and winners and losers, was perhaps always unlikely. But after this week, even that vanishingly small possibility has been swept away like tears in the rain – or, indeed, on the frontbench.
[See also: The bond market has rescued Rachel Reeves from Keir Starmer]
Related
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Sun
11 minutes ago
- The Sun
Parents need to check for lost bank account with £2,200 unclaimed cash, says HMRC
HUNDREDS of thousands of young people could be missing out on £2,200 sitting in forgotten savings accounts, according to HMRC. These accounts, known as Child Trust Funds, were set up for every child born between September 2002 and January 2011. 1 A staggering £1.4billion belonging to 671,000 young people is waiting to be claimed, but many don't know these accounts exist or that they can access the money. HMRC said the average savings pot is worth £2,212. It is now urging parents to check if their children are eligible. In a post on X, they said: "If your child is between 18 and 22, they can cash in their #ChildTrustFund. The average amount claimed is £2,200." Parents can check for Child Trust Funds on the HMRC website at You need to be over 16 or a parent to use the service. To check for your child, you'll need their full name, address, and date of birth. To check for yourself, you'll need your name, address, date of birth, and National Insurance number. The tool will tell you which provider holds the Child Trust Fund, but it won't show how much money is in the account. Once you've filled in the form, HMRC will send you a letter with the details. If you apply online, you should get this within three weeks. Postal applications may take a bit longer. If you don't hear back within six weeks, you should write to HMRC to follow up. Once you know who the provider is, you can contact them to withdraw or transfer the money. What are Child Trust Funds? CHILD Trust Funds are tax-free savings accounts that were set up by the Government for children born between September 2002 and January 2011. The Government paid £250 into each account, or £500 for children from low-income families. Another payment was made when the child turned seven, depending on their family's financial situation. In 2010, payments were reduced to £50 for well-off families and £100 for lower-income households. The scheme was scrapped in 2011 and replaced by Junior ISAs. Many parents stopped adding money to the accounts, and they were forgotten. The funds are held by banks, building societies, and other savings providers - not by the Government. Young people can take control of their account at 16 but can only withdraw the money when they turn 18. What can I do with the cash? Most people transfer the money into a bank account, invest it, or move it into an ISA. You can ask your Child Trust Fund provider to pay the money directly into your bank account by providing your bank details. If you'd prefer to invest the money, you can transfer it into an ISA for tax-free savings. If you transfer money from a Child Trust Fund into an adult ISA when it matures, it won't count towards your £20,000 annual ISA limit for over-18s. For those under 18, it's often better to move the money into a Junior ISA. Junior ISAs usually have lower fees and more investment options, according to AJ Bell. The money will stay locked until you turn 18, but you'll still get the tax-free benefits of an ISA. You can transfer the full amount from the Child Trust Fund into a Junior ISA and still add up to £9,000 more in the same tax year. How can I find the best savings rates? WITH your current savings rates in mind, don't waste time looking at individual banking sites to compare rates - it'll take you an eternity. Research price comparison websites such as Compare the Market, and MoneySupermarket. These will help you save you time and show you the best rates available. They also let you tailor your searches to an account type that suits you. As a benchmark, you'll want to consider any account that currently pays more interest than the current level of inflation - 3.4%. It's always wise to have some money stashed inside an easy-access savings account to ensure you have quick access to cash to deal with any emergencies like a boiler repair, for example. If you're saving for a long-term goal, then consider locking some of your savings inside a fixed bond, as these usually come with the highest savings rates.
Scottish Sun
15 minutes ago
- Scottish Sun
Parents need to check for lost bank account with £2,200 unclaimed cash, says HMRC
Plus, we've explained what to do with the money CASH IN Parents need to check for lost bank account with £2,200 unclaimed cash, says HMRC Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) HUNDREDS of thousands of young people could be missing out on £2,200 sitting in forgotten savings accounts, according to HMRC. These accounts, known as Child Trust Funds, were set up for every child born between September 2002 and January 2011. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 1 Once you know who the provider is, you can contact them to withdraw or transfer the money Credit: Getty A staggering £1.4billion belonging to 671,000 young people is waiting to be claimed, but many don't know these accounts exist or that they can access the money. HMRC said the average savings pot is worth £2,212. It is now urging parents to check if their children are eligible. In a post on X, they said: "If your child is between 18 and 22, they can cash in their #ChildTrustFund. The average amount claimed is £2,200." Parents can check for Child Trust Funds on the HMRC website at You need to be over 16 or a parent to use the service. To check for your child, you'll need their full name, address, and date of birth. To check for yourself, you'll need your name, address, date of birth, and National Insurance number. The tool will tell you which provider holds the Child Trust Fund, but it won't show how much money is in the account. Once you've filled in the form, HMRC will send you a letter with the details. If you apply online, you should get this within three weeks. Postal applications may take a bit longer. If you don't hear back within six weeks, you should write to HMRC to follow up. Once you know who the provider is, you can contact them to withdraw or transfer the money. What are Child Trust Funds? CHILD Trust Funds are tax-free savings accounts that were set up by the Government for children born between September 2002 and January 2011. The Government paid £250 into each account, or £500 for children from low-income families. Another payment was made when the child turned seven, depending on their family's financial situation. In 2010, payments were reduced to £50 for well-off families and £100 for lower-income households. The scheme was scrapped in 2011 and replaced by Junior ISAs. Many parents stopped adding money to the accounts, and they were forgotten. The funds are held by banks, building societies, and other savings providers - not by the Government. Young people can take control of their account at 16 but can only withdraw the money when they turn 18. What can I do with the cash? Most people transfer the money into a bank account, invest it, or move it into an ISA. You can ask your Child Trust Fund provider to pay the money directly into your bank account by providing your bank details. If you'd prefer to invest the money, you can transfer it into an ISA for tax-free savings. If you transfer money from a Child Trust Fund into an adult ISA when it matures, it won't count towards your £20,000 annual ISA limit for over-18s. For those under 18, it's often better to move the money into a Junior ISA. Junior ISAs usually have lower fees and more investment options, according to AJ Bell. The money will stay locked until you turn 18, but you'll still get the tax-free benefits of an ISA. You can transfer the full amount from the Child Trust Fund into a Junior ISA and still add up to £9,000 more in the same tax year.
Daily Mail
16 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Britons deliver a devastating verdict on Keir Starmer's first year in power... so what DO they think has been his biggest achievement?
Voters have answered with a resounding 'NOTHING' when asked what has been the biggest achievement of Keir Starmer 's first year in power, a new poll shows. More in Common asked voters to offer their one or two-word responses to Labour 's best and worst actions of the party's first 12 months in power to create a word cloud. And it was pretty brutal, with most people unable to thing of anything good. Only its work on the NHS made much of a dent in people's gloomy assessment. On the flipside, they were very clear in what has gone wrong. The Winter Fuel Allowance row was far and away the biggest cock-up in people's minds. It saw Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves try to take away the £300 universal benefit away from all but the poorest recipients, before being forced into a U-turn. More in Common's director Luke Tryl said it was 'one of the most stark word clouds we've seen - the Winter Fuel Allowance drowns everything else out'. The other major problem to stand out for voters was immigration, with more than 20,000 people already having crossed the English Channel in small boats this year, a record. More in Common asked voters to offer their one or two-word responses to Labour's best and worst actions of the party's first 12 months in power to create a word cloud. And it was pretty brutal, with most people unable to thing of anything good. Sir Keir is facing Labour dissent, economic uncertainty and spiralling conflict abroad as he marks a year in Number 10. The Prime Minister led his party back into power with more than 400 MPs on July 4 last year – clinching a majority just short of Sir Tony Blair's landslide in 1997. But with a daunting in-tray of problems including a stuttering economy, creaking public services and global volatility, his political honeymoon period was short-lived. His personal popularity is now the lowest of any British premier after their first 12 months in office, political scientist and polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said. 'There were pretty clear potential weaknesses before they even started, and most of those weaknesses have basically just been exposed over the course of the last 12 months.' Sir John said part of the problem lay in what he described as a failure of narrative in setting out the Government's vision for change to the public. 'They're portraying themselves as a repair gang rather than the builders of a new Jerusalem. Pessimism doesn't necessarily go down very well,' he said. 'The thing with Starmer is, he's a brilliant prosecution lawyer… But prosecution lawyers present cases that have been (put together) by someone else. The problem is that as a political leader you've got to prosecute your own case. 'Maybe he needs new personnel? Either he's got to learn to do it himself or get someone in to do it for him.' That verdict was echoed by some dissenting voices within Labour ranks, where there is lingering discontent among rebels over the Government's Welfare Bill despite Number 10 offering major concessions on the legislation. The Government saw off the threat of a major Commons defeat over the legislation on Tuesday after shelving plans to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability benefit in England. 'I think he really needs to think about why he wants to be a Labour Prime Minister and what is it he actually cares about,' one long-serving Labour MP said. They said Tuesday had marked 'the lowest point' in Sir Keir's premiership so far and raised questions about his authority, warning that backbenchers may now feel emboldened to demand further U-turns elsewhere. Sir John said that the Government's challenges in passing legislation were unsurprising in light of the broad but fragile coalition of support on which Labour built its election victory, securing 412 seats on just 35% of the vote. That means many MPs defending narrow majorities and raises the prospect of 'a large body of people who are nervous about their political futures,' he said.
