The great Northeast exodus — how high taxes are driving away billions
Call it moving van economics — and New York and New Jersey are the losers.
A new analysis from my organization, Unleash Prosperity, of the latest census and income tax data finds these two states have lost more residents over the past decade than any other state not named California.
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From 2015-2024, New York has lost 2 million residents.
3 Zohran Mamdani wants to raise taxes by 2 percent on wealthy New Yorkers.
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These are giant population losses from two of America's leading industrial and financial centers throughout the 20th century.
State tax havens
These New York and New Jersey refugees have mostly relocated to the new powerhouse states like Florida, Texas and Tennessee. These moving vans explains why the Southeast is now, for the first time ever, the economically dominant region in the country.
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Even more problematic for New York and New Jersey is that the movers are taking a lot of personal income and purchasing power with them. From 2012 to 2022, New York has lost $111 billion in income while Jersey is down by more than $31 billion.
Because the income is lost forever — except for the rare cases when the exiles move back — these income losses accumulate year after year.
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Unleash Prosperity
Why are so many people leaving the Northeast?
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A myriad of reasons — crime, cost of living, better job opportunities, warmer weather and, yes, to save money on taxes.
New York, New Jersey and California are the three biggest losers in the interstate migration sweepstakes, and they just happen to be the states with the highest state-local income tax add-ons. The big winner states like Florida and Texas have no income tax at all.
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Unleash Prosperity
Coincidence? Doubtful.
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There's a warning sign that should be flashing. The place in America with the highest income tax is New York City. Now one of the leading candidates for mayor, Zohran Mamdani, wants to raise the tax on the rich by another 2 percentage points.
When will voters realize that you can't tax the New York millionaire after they move to Florida — and choose to pay no income tax at all?
Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a former senior Trump economic adviser.
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