5 men's March Madness upsets to expect in the 1st round, including 1 each region
When it comes to double-digit seeds pulling off first-round upsets in the NCAA men's tournament, none have done it more than 11-seeds over 6-seeds, contrary to those popular picks from 12-5 matchups. Even in 2024, three 11-seeds won to outdo the two wins by 12-seeds.
I again expect 11-6 to be a source of upsets in the first round of 2025 March Madness, but this time around I think the 12-seeds come out on top after getting a head start from No. 12 Colorado State being favored over No. 5 Memphis. These are my favorite upset picks for the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
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South Region: 12 UC San Diego over 5 Michigan
The Tritons have a top-15 offensive and defensive rating, a veteran-laden team and they shoot the lights out from three. There's a reason this spread is so small.
East Region: 12 Liberty over 5 Oregon
Liberty limits opponents to 63 points per game, 40 percent shooting from the field and 28% from three, while shooting a high clip from deep itself. If the Flames get hot, Oregon could have a hard time keeping up while trading twos.
East Region: 11 VCU over 6 BYU
VCU has incredible length across its lineup that contributes to a disruptive defense that could make things tough for a BYU team that already prefers to stand around the 3-point. Freshman Egor Demin will have a ton of pressure to create open shots for the Cougars.
Midwest Region: 13 High Point over 8 Purdue
What we have here is a high-powered High Point offense against an underwhelming Purdue defense. Between Kezza Giffa, Kimani Hamilton, D'maurian Williams and other scorers in that Panthers rotation, Matt Painter's squad is not going to have an easy time avoiding another early exit after losing to a 16-seed in 2023.
West Region: 11 Drake over 6 Missouri
At 19 points per game (and 39 minutes!), Bennett Stirtz is an absolute bucket for the Bulldogs. It's hard to feel good about Missouri coming up with a plan to stop him and Drake fresh off four losses in their last five games where they gave up an average of 95 points in the losses.
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