Winners and losers from 2025 NHL Draft first round: Islanders get an impressive haul

New York Times

5 hours ago

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 NHL Draft.
LOS ANGELES — Welcome to my pick-by-pick breakdown of the 2025 NHL Draft's first round.
Over the next two days, I'll review and rank the draft classes of all 32 NHL teams. Today's Round 1 analysis (which also includes a list of the top prospects available to start Round 2 tomorrow), will be followed on Day 2 by an exhaustive look at almost all of the 224 picks made across seven rounds, analyzing the complete hauls of each club.
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After a year of travel, video, phone calls and texts, it's my educated view of each team's selections, carefully considering both my own evaluations of the prospects and each player's consensus expected draft range.
Note that this is not a look at the total value each club got out of its picks, but rather an examination of each team's class relative to where they picked and the number of selections that they had. Teams with more picks (or higher picks on average) are not guaranteed high grades, just as teams with few picks (or lower picks on average) are not guaranteed poor ones. Trades are also not considered — the focus here is exclusively on the picks.
The goal is for this to be the most thorough draft review available anywhere.
As always, my analysis of all 32 picks is sorted into the following tiers:
Pick No. 1: Matthew Schaefer
My ranking: No. 1
Pick No. 16: Victor Eklund
My ranking: No. 8
Pick No. 17: Kashawn Aitcheson
My ranking: No. 13
I think we're going to look back on this night as a very big one for the Islanders, who walk away with the best prospect in the draft, two of the top D in the draft, and three of the most competitive players in the draft.
It's always hard to give too much credit to the team with the No. 1 pick taking the No. 1 prospect. Schaefer has been the consensus top prospects since the CHL USA Prospects Challenge in November and strengthened his case through December with his play in the OHL and into Canada's selection camp for the World Juniors, their pre-tournament play, and the first four periods of the tournament before he got injured. And though there were people who asked questions about his small draft-year sample size, and his 16-year-old season's offense, whenever those questions came up in conversations, none of those people were actually prepared to say he wasn't the best prospect. The Islanders had to consider those questions and consider local boy James Hagens before they arrived at their decision, but Schaefer was the most impressive prospect in this class in the games that he played and they arrived where everyone else in the league did. Once you get to know him, you quickly realize he's an impressive young man and could be the leading face of a franchise both on and off the ice.
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It's not hard to give them credit for the Eklund or Aitcheson picks, though.
I reported leading into the draft that it looked like Eklund was going to fall, and the Islanders took advantage. It's always tough as a 5-foot-11 winger to go in the top 10 at a draft, but at No. 16 he was my best player available. Islanders fans will love him, too. He's a dog-on-a-bone forward who gets after it, plays fast, can score and make things happen, and plays an eminently likeable brand of hockey. He's one of the most competitive forwards in the draft and Aitcheson is one of the most competitive — and tough — defensemen in the draft. Aitcheson can move and shoot pucks and defends hard and firmly as well. It's not hard to imagine all three shaping the identity of the Islanders organziation and building a winning culture together.
A-plus.
Pick No. 7: James Hagens
My ranking: No. 3
With the way the lottery broke, it felt like Hagens wasn't going to be a top-five pick, even if he is a top-five talent in this draft (which I believe he is, even if the league was softer on him than I think they should have been). If the draft order had slotted a little differently, I think he could have gone top five. The Bruins reap the rewards of the circumstances though, getting a player I believe is going to be a star in the league. As they enter a bit of a different phase as an organization, adding a premium prospect, and preferably a center, was essential here. In Hagens, they get both. I think he could lead the World Juniors in scoring and be in the mix for the Hobey Baker Award next year, and prove some people wrong.
Pick No. 19: Justin Carbonneau
My ranking: No. 12
Carbonneau was one of the top forwards in the QMJHL last year and his shot and hands both get among the highest grades in this class. He's got one-on-one skill, an NHL shot, and a strong pro build already. Some have minor concerns about his skating and consistency. Some think he comes across a little cocky and questioned him on his decision to switch agents right before the draft. I see a confident player who plays physical and plays through contact, and I saw him pull away enough this year and make enough progress over the last two years to believe he's going to be just fine from a pace standpoint in the NHL. I think he's got a real path to become 30-goal scorer in the NHL.
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Pick No. 27: Lynden Lakovic
My ranking: No. 18
Lakovic has all of the tools to be a second-line winger in the NHL. He's 6-4, he can skate, he's got real puck skill, he can shoot it. I know there were a couple of teams where he was the next guy on their list when they picked someone else in the teens. If the order were a little different, he could have gone higher. Scouts want to see him be more consistently impactful in games and play with more intensity at his size, but his highs are high and I thought he drove offence really well in his circumstances as a go-to player for a rebuilding team in Moose Jaw. I'd bet he has a better career than several of the players taken ahead of him.
Calgary Flames
Pick No. 18: Cole Reschny
My ranking: No. 15
Pick No. 32: Cullen Potter
My ranking: No. 16
The Flames pool clearly needs centers, and Braeden Cootes and Cole Reschny always felt like they'd be the target for them at No. 18. Their scouting department doesn't seem particularly preoccupied with listed heights either, so they weren't shy to take the 5-foot-10.5 center, knowing he's strong over pucks, he's a competitive and smart two-way C, and he can make plays. I see the same and think he's a great fit for them and a best-case scenario.
They took another undersized center in Potter at No. 32, too (though I think Reschny projects as a center and Potter is more likely to be a pro winger). Potter's the best skater in the draft for me and has real skill on the puck. He can dash and flash out there. There are scouts who wanted to see him get to the inside more and be more consistent with his combination of speed and skill, but the speed is so high-end that I think he makes it and the late-first was exactly the range to make that bet.
I liked the swings they took.
San Jose Sharks
Pick No. 2: Michael Misa
My ranking: No. 2
Pick No. 30: Joshua Ravensbergen
My ranking: No. 28
I believe the Sharks' decision came down to the wire. I think their group landed on the right player in the end though. As I've reported, there were camps within the Sharks organization that were high on Anton Frondell and Porter Martone. I'd heard that one of their coaches was telling people he liked Martone and wanted a big winger. I'd heard that Macklin Celebrini had given Martone positive reviews coming out of men's worlds. I'd even heard from a couple of scouts that there was quiet chatter about them liking Desnoyers (though another source close to Desnoyers poured some cold water on that when I touched based). And I'd heard a lot about Frondell. But I believe Misa is the top forward in this draft class and that's still the majority view in the league, even if it's a slight majority. Celebrini, Misa, Will Smith and Sam Dickinson is the best group of four young players/prospects in the NHL.
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They've got enviable lineup flexibility now, too. All three of Celebrini, Misa and Smith are natural centers, but Celebrini and Smith already have built-in chemistry and Misa gives them a potential second star center or someone they can mix and match with the other two.
The Ravensbergen pick is a really interesting one after having just traded for Yaroslav Askarov. You could do worse than those two as your goalies of the future, though, and Ravensbergen is still viewed as quite raw and will be on a long-term development plan. A hip issue kept him out of the gym last summer and he's got important work to do to get stronger around his 6-5 frame. The talent and upside is serious though.
Pick No. 23: Logan Hensler
My ranking: No. 20
Hensler, once viewed as a potential top-10 prospect in this class, has the skating, talent and tools as a 6-foot-2/3 right-shot D to develop into a top-four defenseman in the NHL and was my top-ranked D on the board when the Sens took him — after moving back and adding draft capital in the process. He needs to play firmer and commanding on both sides of the puck at times, but that's a mental thing that the Senators likely believe he can grow into. I've comped him to the Damon Severson/Brady Skjei profile of player who can give you 30-40 points, play in the top four on their teams and can contribute on both special teams but have never elevated to true PP1/PK1/first-pairing studs and are paid accordingly (Severson made around $4.17 million per year and then $6.25 million on his two big contracts, and Skjei made $5.25 million and then $7 million on his). I expect Hensler to take charge more next season and Wisconsin and take a step, and like the pick.
Pick No. 5: Brady Martin
My ranking: No. 10
Pick No. 21: Cameron Reid
My ranking: No. 19
Pick No. 26: Ryker Lee
My ranking: No. 24
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The fondness for Brady Martin was real in the league and if the Preds didn't take him at No. 5, I believe the Flyers were going to at No. 6 and he wouldn't have gotten past the Bruins at No. 7. He's one-of-one as a player, the fiercest competitor and hardest hitter in the draft, with a throwback game that has skill and pop. He's also a one-of-one, free-spirited person with a great energy and an even better story. He's a Preds-style player and they've really prioritized the hard-nosed competitor types at the draft in recent years, so he'll fit right in that way. I think the Preds, a team that has been starving for a high-end, star-level talent, left some talent on the board by passing on guys like James Hagens and Porter Martone (I know they were high on Martone, too), though, and I wonder, even if Martin becomes a Sam Bennett/Mike Richards type for them, whether we'll still be talking in five or 10 years about how they're missing that game-breaking point producer.
I really liked the Reid and Lee picks for them though.
Their pool is deep at forward and adding a second A-minus or B-plus D prospect behind or in front of Tanner Molendyk in their pool was going to be really important. And Lee is one of my favorite prospects in this class and might have its best set of hands. He has also sported up from tiny to 6 feet. He could use another step for sure but the talent is dynamic.
I thought Reid was going to go in the teens and they probably did too. When he didn't, they moved up to grab him. He's a well-rounded defender who can really skate (as Molendyk also can), defends well for 6-feet (as Molendyk does), and makes smart reads and decisions all over the ice (as Molendyk does). Molendyk's skating is airier and lighter than Reid's, but there are some parallels and their strengths are in a lot of the same areas. You'd like for them to shoot with different hands, maybe, but that's two lefties that should be a big part of their future blue line.
I nearly slotted them in the winners group after their last two picks.
Pick No. 28: Sascha Boumedienne
My ranking: No. 33
The Jets' pool is incredibly thin behind Elias Salomonsson at D and it felt like they almost had to take one with their first. Boumedienne or Blake Fiddler were the obvious pick for them here. He's a plus-skater with a developing frame and talent. His decision-making can get him in trouble at times but he profiles like an NHL defenseman in a lot of other ways and took major strides in the second half of his freshman year at Boston University.
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Pick No. 10: Roger McQueen
My ranking: No. 11
The Ducks could afford to take a swing and McQueen always felt like an obvious selection for them. Once I heard that they had a 'sneaky' dinner with him ahead of the combine, they always felt like his floor on draft night. His back injury history isn't viewed to be as serious as Cayden Lindstrom's was a year ago, but he has been dealing with it on and off for a year and a half and that was enough for some to hesitate on him at the very top of the draft, where he could have gone without the perceived risk that it could linger. He's a 6-foot-5 center with high-end skill and sense. He compares himself to Ducks great Ryan Getzlaf and if he hits, there are some who believe he can be an impact top-of-the-lineup player (I've used Blake Wheeler as my comp). With him, Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, the Ducks have a good-sized and still-diverse mix of young talent to build around up front. Now they have to execute.
Pick No. 9: Radim Mrtka
My ranking: No. 7
The Sabres got their guy here. I heard Mrtka tied to them back at the combine and never heard anyone else. I'm very high on him, too. He's a nearly 6-foot-6 defender with high-end mobility for his size and legit poise on the puck. Some scouts wanted to see him impose himself physically a little more at times, but his combination of size and skating is pretty rare and teams are really prioritizing length on their backends right now. I think he's got a legit puck game, too.
Pick No. 4: Caleb Desnoyers
My ranking: No. 5
I know that Utah liked Brady Martin, Porter Martone and Jake O'Brien, but Desnoyers always felt like the most logical pick for them and the most natural fit as their 2C of the future behind Logan Cooley. Desnoyers is as complete and well-rounded a prospect as there is in this draft. He's also, in a draft with a lot of natural centers but without a lock for the position, a sure thing to be a center because of his defensive detail, his faceoff proficiency, and his hockey sense. Mammoth fans are going to love him, too. He has this unmistakable aura about him, and I'd bet that he wears a letter for the Mammoth someday.
Pick No. 8: Jake O'Brien
My ranking: No. 9
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I had multiple sources tell me O'Brien wouldn't get past No. 7, and that the Mammoth, Flyers and Bruins were all high on him. But as I reported in recent days, it felt like there were eight players everyone thought were going to go in the top seven, and it felt to me like O'Brien was the most likely to go No. 8 and be the pick for the Kraken. It's yet another center at the top of the draft for a team that has already used top-10 picks on Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton, but O'Brien was the consensus best player available and there had already been talk and suggestion of Wright or Catton maybe moving to the wing in the NHL. O'Brien could as well and because of his hockey IQ (he's one of the smartest players in this class), should be able to play with anyone and make his linemates better through his sense, skill and playmaking. They're going to have to draft a D prospect high eventually, but they've now got an exciting young quartet of forwards to build around in their top-six moving forward. Maybe Wright just becomes a super 3C of sorts, too.
Pick No. 13: Carter Bear
My ranking: No. 14
The Red Wings have one of the clearest types and Bear always fit it to a tee. He's a driven, hard-working, competitive player who plays an honest, determined game. He's got real skill and can make things happen at pace and in straight lines, too. He projects as an up-and-down-the-lineup top-nine winger who you could imagine as a go-getter whose skill is secondary on a top line when it needs to be or a real driver and creator on a middle line. He's also a lefty, which I think matters when several of the other forwards they're building around (Lucas Raymond, Nate Danielson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygaard, etc.) are righties. A skate laceration that partially tore his Achilles and prematurely ended his season caused some to wonder if he might slip from the early teens to the late teens, but this was the range he belongs in on talent and projection in this age group.
Pick No. 6: Porter Martone
My ranking: No. 4
Pick No. 12: Jack Nesbitt
My ranking: No. 32
I know Flyers fans are starving for the organization to add a center, and I know they strongly considered each of James Hagens and Jake O'Brien, which could make it sting if they struggle over the next few years to find that center and Hagens becomes that for another team. But Martone is one of the very best prospects in this draft and gives the Flyers size, high-end skill (he's got plus traits as a shooter, handler and playmaker), and a formidable one-two punch at right-wing with Matvei Michkov. I wouldn't sweat the position he plays. If he can add a little more pace/consistency to his game, he's going to be a star in the league for a long time.
I didn't love the decision to take Nesbitt at No. 12, though. He was viewed in that range by some at different points this year, but there were others who softened on him and wondered about his feet. He does add more size to a pool that needed it before Friday night, and fills another need as a center. He's competitive and physical, and dropped the gloves a bunch this year, and has some legit skill for his size as well. But at No. 12, you're betting that he becomes a top-six center and I think there is some risk that if he doesn't get quicker, he might struggle at NHL pace to produce above a third-line level. He compares himself to Tom Wilson and if he's that then he's a good pick there, but there's only one Tom Wilson for a reason.
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Pick No. 14: Jackson Smith
My ranking: No. 17
Pick No. 20: Pyotr Andreyanov
My ranking: No. 39
The Blue Jackets had their eyes on a D at No. 14 and it always felt like they'd take Jackson Smith or Kashawn Aitcheson if either were there. Then they both were and in Smith, a 6-foot-4 D committed to Penn State, they got their guy. He's got work to do in terms of reading the game better and making better decisions at times, but minor hockey IQ questions are superseded by his pro build, pro skill, and pro skating. He's got serious potential and fills a clear need within the Blue Jackets' pool after they moved off of David Jiricek. With Smith and Denton Mateychuk now as strong young pieces to build around on the backend, plus the exciting young core they've got up front, the Blue Jackets are headed in the right direction.
The Andreyanov pick is an interesting one. I like Evan Gardner and Sergei Ivanov a lot, their two top goalie prospects, but they need to find a true starter and I'm even higher on Andreyanov — who was my second-ranked goalie in this class and top-two-ranked goalie for multiple other teams — than both. They clearly aren't worried about size in their goalies either, because all of Andreyanov, Gardner and Ivanov are 6-foot-or-under.
I do wonder if they could have moved back a little and still got him, but they clearly identified a D and a goalie as their targets in the first round and they got both.
I thought about ranking them as overtime winners here and can see the vision, so I wouldn't read too much into this slotting.
Pick No. 3: Anton Frondell
My ranking: No. 6
Pick No. 25: Vaclav Nestrasil
My ranking: No. 53
Pick No. 29: Mason West
My ranking: No. 46
I believe the Blackhawks were hoping to get Misa and that after fielding calls for the No. 3 pick, they were inclined to sit tight once rumors began swirling that the Sharks might not take him. Frondell isn't a consolation prize for them, though. Before the chatter about Misa, I believe Frondell was their initial target. So their excitement about the player is sincere. And while I'm partial to James Hagens and Porter Martone as prospects, I have Frondell in the same tier and understand why Hagens (at 5-foot-10.5, with their pool skewing smaller) and Martone (who doesn't have the pace/skating they prioritize) weren't fits for them. In Frondell, the Blackhawks get some needed size and strength, another big shot opposite Bedard's on the power play, and a player who could either move to the wing and become a linemate of Bedard's, or slot in at 2C, freeing up Frank Nazar for a move to the wing. There are folks who've comped him to Aleksander Barkov and Anze Kopitar. I'm not there, and do have some questions about his ultimate offense, but he profiles as a legitimate top-six forward and a good fit.
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Nestrasil emerged as a late-first/early-second range guy in this draft class as the year went on and I'm not sure he was going to be there for them at No. 34 to start Day 2, so while I was a little lower on him the selection wouldn't be viewed as a reach within the league. He's a big, rangy, hard-working, committed two-way winger who showed some flashes of offense. He projects as a third-line winger and potentially an up-and-down-the-lineup type.
West is a fascinating gamble, but a definite gamble as a first-round pick and the sense I got coming out of the combine was that he was going to be a Round 2 pick instead of a Round 1 one, so I wonder why they made the decision to move up when I'm pretty confident he would have been there at No. 34. His strong play in the USHL late in the year was an important showcase for someone who had played exclusively high school until then, but his sample is still at a lower level than the rest of these players and I do think it matters that he's going to play football instead of hockey in the fall to play out his senior year at Edina High. He has committed to Michigan State and says he's all-in on hockey but some teams felt he wasn't, and didn't like that he was risking injury and not playing in the USHL until after his football season was over next year. He's a huge player and standout athlete, obviously, and he's got some skill, but he also needs to impose himself more. It's more size and he's an interesting prospect, but there's some definite risk. With a deep pool, the Blackhawks can afford to take that risk, I suppose.
The Blackhawks clearly set out to get bigger within their pool at this year's draft, and I do think that's an important priority for them given the number of sub-6-foot prospects they have.
Pick No. 15: Braeden Cootes
My ranking: No. 23
There was a lot smoke around the Canucks and Cootes ahead of the draft, so the Canucks got their guy at No. 15. He's a well-rounded, well-liked, complete right-shot center. His statistical profile in Seattle didn't pop but he was still the leading scorer on a low-scoring team and a go-to — and productive — player for Team Canada at U18 worlds, where he wore the 'C'. Their top two prospects heading into the night were a defenseman (Tom Willander) and a winger (Jonathan Lekkerimaki). Now they've got a legit prospect down the middle. There are players who were picked after Cootes that I'm confident will out-produce him in their NHL careers, but he plays a premium position and they're counting on him becoming a valuable middle-six C, with the value that comes with that role on an NHL team. I'm a little lower on him than most (I just wish I'd seen more offense, especially as a 5-foot-11 center), though, and think the Canucks should really be searching for skill. At No. 15, they played it safe.
Los Angeles Kings
Pick No. 31: Henry Brzustewicz
My ranking: No. 51
I kept hearing the Kings were going to target one of the late-first D and Brzustewicz is a player I tied to them as a potential fit. I would have taken Blake Fiddler, personally, but this was Brzustewicz' range. I'm a little lower on him than most (though there are some who share my view in the league) but he's a strong, sturdy player and the London bump is real. Teams respect the Hunter brothers' ability to develop players there and the Hunter brothers don't hand out ice-time to young D easily, so when they trusted Brzustewicz to play 20 minutes in the regular season and a little less in the playoffs, that matters. I've wondered about his decision-making when I've watched him but he should become a solid third-pairing D in the league. I think they're counting on him taking some big steps to become a horse in London next year if they want him to become more than that. That's possible, but I do think there's some potential downside here.
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Pick No. 11: Benjamin Kindel
My ranking: No. 21
Pick No. 22: Bill Zonnon
My ranking: No. 31
Pick No. 24: William Horcoff
My ranking: No. 50
The Kindel pick at No. 11 was the first surprise of the draft. He's one of the most highly-intelligent offensive players in the class and excelled at center in his draft year after playing mostly the wing as a 16-year-old in the league, finishing one point shy of 100 points. He's a Kyle Dubas and Wes Clark player in the truest sense and has legit top-six upside because of his feel and playmaking inside the offensive zone. But I felt I was high on him slotting him at No. 21 on my list and the larger camp in the league viewed him as a late-first. If they were going to move back with their No. 12 pick, I wonder if they could have maybe still got him at No. 22. Obviously they didn't want to roll the dice.
I've got all the time in the world for Bill Zonnon as a player as well, but I've spoken with people around him who were just hoping he'd go in Round 1 and didn't expect him to go as high as No. 22. He's a nearly 6-foot-2 winger who has room to fill out his frame and plays with intention, good pace, good playmaking feels, and work ethic. He projects as a contributing top-nine winger and I felt he was a first-rounder, even if No. 22 was a smidge higher than expected.
Though Horcoff was going to go in the first round and has some believers around the league, he was the pick I really didn't like. I haven't seen it with him all year and even when he played much better following a move from the NTDP to Michigan for second semester, and then again at U18 Worlds (he also did well at the combine, breaking the long jump record), I couldn't wrap my head around him as a first-round talent. He's a big, strong player who can drive the net and has some secondary skill. But he's not a natural playmaker for his linemates, I don't think he's a particularly smart player, and his feet are average or slightly below. He's got a path to become a contributing third-liner, but I don't think that's a player you target at No. 24 at the draft.
I thought they outsmarted themselves a little in terms of where they took their players, even if they walked away with three good prospects and their pool is in a much better place now than it was before the night started. For a GM who has never been shy to move back and did on Friday night, I think they could have got two or maybe even all three of their guys a little lower.
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Spence is a competitive, fast, detailed, hardworking player who can get out in transition or attack off the wall. He plays the game with intention, sticks with plays and has decent-though-not-dynamic skill. He plays with pace on and off the puck, keeps his feet moving and gets up and under sticks to win back possession. He has worn an 'A' and been a real play-driver for the Otters the last two years as a late 2006 birthday. He again wore an 'A' for Canada and stirred the drink with his pace, effort level, skating and shot at last year's U18 worlds. He was invited to the World Junior Summer Showcase. Though he primarily plays the wing, he has played a few games at center over the last year and a half and has some real versatility to his game. There are upside questions about his skill level and playmaking (is he just going to be a really good third-liner?) but he's a very likable style of player. He's competitive. He can be a bit of a pest but also plays an honest, straight-line game. He's got a quick catch-and-release motion. He's consistent. And he was owed more on the stat sheet this season than his numbers indicated (he had plenty of looks in my viewings). He looks like more of a late-first than a mid-first now because the offense hasn't really popped, though he did still have a very respectable 82 points in 74 combined regular season and playoff games.
I hate the cliche, but he embodies 'plays the game the right way,' and he can really drive down ice with his skating and straight-line speed. He's going to be a good 200-foot forward at the next level for a long time.
Ihs-Wozniak was the most productive 2007 at Sweden's J20 level last year, even playing to a slightly higher point-per-game rate than Frondell. However, he underwhelmed at U18 worlds and the Hlinka, didn't live up to expectations at the World Junior A Challenge — where a player with his skill set should have filled the net — and got off to a slower-than-expected start to his draft year in J20, underwhelming scouts with his inconsistency and perimeter play at times. After a five-point game at the end of October and a promotion to the SHL (scoring his first pro goal on his first shot), though, Ihs-Wozniak tore up the J20 level offensively in the second half, putting together a string of multi-point games and making plays at the Five Nations tournament and a second U18 worlds for Sweden (he also showed more of a physical side and competitiveness in the second half and at worlds). He's a first-round talent, and I think based on his recent play that he belongs in this range.
Ihs-Wozniak's a compelling and talented player. He's a 6-foot-2 forward with a clean catch-and-release shot, a dangerous one-timer on the flank, an ability to handle pucks in tight or protect them out wide and a good sense of when to slow the game down. His actual posture can look a little funky, with a very upright stance from the hips up and legs that can trail behind, but he's actually pretty fast. He can play one-on-one, he can play off the puck as a shooter, he can make skill plays for his linemates and he's got an ability to finish with his hands and quick release. He kind of reminds me of Kraken first-rounder Eduard Sale, though, in that he relies on the power play and has been known to come and go in games a little too much, casting doubt about his projection (it feels a little top-six or bust). For that reason, it was nice to see him winning more battles at U18s while still striking quickly offensively, flashing in moments of one-on-one skill, and looking dangerous on the power play. He's going to be one of the only players in the late-first/early-second range in this draft with legitimate skill grades/PP skills, and that'll make him an interesting bet for the right team.
Gastrin has been the captain of this Swedish age group and has centered Sweden's very successful top line with fellow 2025 prospect Viktor Klingsell and top 2026 talent Ivar Stenberg across multiple events (though he missed the Five Nations due to injury and they were eventually spread out during U18 Worlds), making waves with an eight-point game against Switzerland at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup last summer. He played well in my viewings with MoDo's J20 team this year as well, driving his line and contributing in different areas.
Gastrin's got size, he's a natural center, he's a strong enough skater (it can look a little sloppy but he generates decent power with it regardless) and he plays well off his linemates, offering a responsible and heady two-way game. His habits and details are there at an early age. He's not a dynamic offensive player but he handles it well, makes plays around the net and below the goal line, and seems to really understand timing and spacing. He's also got a natural shot and release that I expect him to show more of as he learns to attack for himself more. Add in a good stick around the net, a willingness to drive and play in the middle third, an ability to go get pucks, and a lot of the little plays he makes and there's a likeable and projectable NHL player there. I do wonder a little about his upside but he looks like a projectable middle-sixer and I think a late-first/early second rating is the correct spot. He's also a June birthday.
One of the standouts at last summer's Hlinka Gretzky Cup, Fiddler captained Team USA and had a couple of the better games of the tournament. That strong play then spilled into a step forward with the Oil Kings — where he played 22-23 minutes per game in all situations to strong two-way results (it also resulted in an invite to USA Hockey's selection camp for the World Juniors). I do think his Hlinka has buoyed him a little, though, and I think he's a little vanilla as a prospect (he was fine-to-good at U18 worlds as USA's No. 1 D, but rarely grabs you and can leave you wanting more skill and hardness). The son of Vernon Fiddler, he's a big, right-shot D who defends at a good level at an early age with a developing game on the puck. He's smart in the defensive zone. He defends the rush well with good gaps and a good stick. I don't think his offense is as natural as it looked in some moments at the Hlinka (his hands aren't super comfortable), but he moves well for a 200-plus-pound teenager and he has shown some poise in possession. He'll try to break past pressure or carry pucks up, even if the execution isn't always there. He can skate pucks out. He'll close gaps early in the neutral zone. I want him to lean on guys and impose himself more at times, though. His decision-making and reads still need some refinement but have also come along step-by-step, and there's clearly a strong foundation and a projectable role for him in the NHL as a two-way five-on-five D with length. Fiddler's game is primarily about his ability to take up ice, defend the rush and break up plays in-zone but progress made in other areas and his confidence in involving himself in the play offensively was just enough to keep him in this range and could give No. 4 upside (he should become a third-pairing guy at minimum). He's also a summer birthday, so there's hope that this is the start of a steep trajectory and that there will be more offense next year. He's not a sexy prospect but he's an effective player who's on an NHL track. I thought about ranking him a couple of spots higher here.
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Moore is a dual citizen and former minor hockey teammate of Misa's who also applied for exceptional status that year but didn't get it and then chose to go to the NTDP after another year of minor hockey instead of going to the OHL where he would have been a top pick as a 16-year-old. The 2007 age group is a weak one for the NTDP, with questions from scouts about each of their top players (Moore included), but he led last year's U17 team in points per game and led last fall's world under-17s in scoring. He has been one of their more dangerous players this season and has taken enough of a step in the last couple of months (he has played better) to remain in my first round, though I do think there's a chance he's a second-rounder.
Moore is a 6-foot-2 center who can challenge offensively and go directly at players with his skill and skating but can also at times drift to the perimeter and just needs to attack and create more consistently. When he plays to the middle and gets off the wall to the inside, he can show skill and scoring and be a lot to handle in protection. He can make plays off of his backhand. But inconsistency has been an issue and he needs to get stronger and play with more drive/push at times. He has quick hands one-on-one, which allows him to play pucks under the sticks of defenders. He's a natural, flowing skater. He's capable of dropping a shoulder and attacking at guys from out wide, or pushing to the net for a jam play/wraparound, or going to the front of the net and lurk for opportunistic chances off the puck, but you want to see him do that more than he actually does. He can also work to get to pucks and win races, though some want to see him be more involved in all areas of his game (he's decent in the faceoff circle, though). He's got some wiry strength and power with room to fill out and add lean muscle mass to a very rangy frame. He's not the most cerebral player or a dynamic facilitator, though, and he's got work to do to round out his game off the puck. But he's got good instincts on the puck and some untapped upside because of his skill, skating and shot. With the right development and a bit of an adjustment to his mindset, he's got legit NHL potential. He's got some developmental boxes he still needs to check, though, as well. In spurts, he has looked like a real talent. As this season has gone on, he has also upped his effort plays, better supported pucks and started going to the net more, which is a good start.
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